Expert CFB Locks for Oklahoma vs. Auburn and Week 4's Biggest Games

For a moment last week, the stars were aligning yet again.

Winners were flying in at a torrid pace, and the possibility of stacking two enormous weeks on top of each other seemed possible. Then Florida turned the ball over 907 times and Notre Dame forgot how to kick and play defense.

In the end, our CFB picks against the spread finished a respectable 6-4 in Week 3. Not bad, but it could have been so much more.

Now, we move forward, and we do so with a fascinating slate of games. While Week 4 might be light on meaty, billboard-quality matchups it is chock full of hugely important games and fascinating spreads coast to coast.

So, let's get to it. The chase for three consecutive winning weeks begins now.

Last Week's Record: 6-4

Year to Date: 19-13-1

Auburn (+6.5) at Oklahoma

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John Mateer mania has captured the attention of the college football world, and he's done so for good reason. Oklahoma's starting QB is talented, capable of improv and the current favorite to win the Heisman. While expectations coming in were high, he's surpassed them thus far.

On the topic, enter Auburn. A Week 1 win over Baylor certainly sent a note to future opponents, as has Jackson Arnold's ability to throw and run the ball. The Tigers weren't exactly dominant against South Alabama last week, although the Jaguars, after nearly upsetting Tulane a week prior, are talented.

Indeed, Norman will be absolute madness once again for yet another big game, especially as Arnold returns to the school he played for last year. 

We watched Michigan fall short in this environment a few short weeks ago, and Auburn will attempt to flip that outcome. And it will. Or, at the very least, the Tigers will make it close.

While Arnold might not be at the same level as Mateer, his ability to run the ball, eat clock and extend plays will loom large against a defense that looks much better. Throw in wideouts Eric Singleton Jr. and Cam Coleman, and the Tigers are starting to look like a matchup nightmare.

This has all the makings of a superb football game, one Auburn can absolutely win.

The Pick: Auburn (+6.5)

TCU (-7) vs. SMU

The fact that this point spread is positioned where it's at says plenty about the state of both programs.  

For SMU, a playoff team from a season ago, this spread speaks to defensive inefficiencies we saw surface against Baylor in the team's lone loss. For TCU, even after they obliterated Bill Belichick in the opener, the buzz is still somewhat quiet. 

That will change after a Saturday that should feature many touchdowns.

With an absurd total hovering in the mid-60s, the game has "off the rails" potential. Quarterbacks Josh Hoover and Kevin Jennings are poised to put on a show, although both can also produce points for the other team if they aren't careful.

Having the luxury of playing this matchup at home feels like an enormous factor. And while few are taking TCU seriously as a threat to win the Big 12, a winner this week will change that.

To be clear, both teams will find enormous success on offense. It would not shock to see both exceed 30 points; it also won't be shocking when TCU wins by double digits.

The Pick: TCU (-7)

Texas Tech (+3) at Utah

In terms of home field advantage, it doesn't get much better than Rice–Eccles Stadium. Utah's home crowd has been a factor in games for many years, and it certainly will be once again.

The oddsmakers are plenty aware of this, as are plenty of gamblers. With that in mind, it's fascinating to see Texas Tech receive plenty of respect as a small road underdog.

Utah wasn't exactly spectacular against Wyoming, although it didn't have to be. The Utes were spectacular in the opener against UCLA, although it's fair to question just how much that meant considering the Bruins' performances since.

What's not up for debate is how much new QB Devon Dampier has helped this program. Dampier is a threat with his arm and his legs and stopping him will keep DCs up all year.

Then again, slowing down Texas Tech QB Behren Morton will be no picnic, either. Morton threw for 464 yards against Oregon State last week, and he might be finding another level to his game.

This one should feature plenty of points, although Texas Tech will announce itself as a threat to win the Big 12 with an outright win.

The Pick: Texas Tech (+3)

Duke (-3) vs. NC State

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A few short weeks ago, we backed Duke against Illinois. The line seemed somewhat suspicious, and we decided to make a move. The Blue Devils were competitive early, although five turnovers and a slew of costly penalties ultimately derailed this bet in a hurry.

Last week, Tulane toppled Duke by a touchdown. Although losing two games in a row isn't exactly ideal, these were solid opponents. And while the season is on the verge of spiraling, a win this week could help plenty.

As long as he protects the football, Darian Mensah will be the best player on the field. Can he do that? That's a very fair question.

NC State is 3-0, although none of the three wins have come easy. Still, 3-0 is 3-0. QB CJ Bailey and running back Hollywood Smothers are a delightful combo, although in this particular game it just won't be enough.

Duke protects the football, and Mensah shows why he was paid a small fortune to transfer in. 

For at least one week, the Blue Devils get right.

The Pick: Duke (-3)

Indiana (-4.5) vs. Illinois

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A year ago, this game would have looked like a snooze on paper. Neither team had emerged just yet, and both programs had endured plenty of issues over the previous decade.

In 2024, however, both programs responded with enormous seasons. Indiana made the College Football Playoff, and Illinois won 10 games. With plenty of talent returning to both rosters, expectations haven't exactly dipped.

With that in mind, what a fascinating football game we have on our hands. And while both sides should draw plenty of interest, we'll take the home team.

Illinois has been excellent thus far, and a 26-point road win against Duke was plenty impressive. Indiana, meanwhile, has been solid as well, and a 27-14 win over Old Dominion looks much better after that same team dismantled Virginia Tech on Saturday.

New starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza has started the season with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in three games. Sure, the schedule is a big part of that, but he certainly seems like an ideal fit for the team.

This one isn't all that complicated. Indiana, at home, with the better defense and a lively QB, is poised to win by more than a score, aka cover.

The Pick: Indiana (-4.5)

Other Games on the Card

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Colorado (-13.5) vs. Wyoming

We faded the Buffaloes last Friday against Houston, although we're taking the other side this week. Wyoming just had a tough game against Utah, and a road trip against a capable offense isn't ideal. 

East Carolina (+6.5) vs. BYU

Oh, this line stinks. BYU is unbeaten and on the verge of being ranked. East Carolina, which has played well, will benefit from its opponent taking a long road trip to an environment that has produced its fair share of upsets.

Miami (OH) +2.5 vs. UNLV

On the topic of fascinating lines, unbeaten UNLV is a small favorite against winless Miami (OH). Despite being winless, the home team is getting plenty of respect. We're more than happy to tag along.

UCF vs. North Carolina (Over 47.5)

We're still learning plenty about both teams, although the offenses still are capable of doing their part. We've seen North Carolina's struggle, although the offense has played better in recent weeks. So, let's get some points.