Latest 2025 MLB Playoff Bracket Predictions with 2 Weeks to Go
Has there ever been a more wide-open playoff picture than there is in 2025?
The Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies are competing for both the No. 1 seed in the National League and the top overall record in the sport, but neither is necessarily a super team. The Brewers feel like a club where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The Phillies have lost Zack Wheeler for the season, while Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are currently on the injured list.
So it should be a fun October, because the 12 teams that reach the postseason will all be able to convince themselves that if they catch fire, their city could have a parade in early November.
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, here's our latest analysis on how each division will play out, what the postseason bracket will look like and who will ultimately hoist the commissioner's trophy.
American League East
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Projected Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Projected Wild-Card Teams: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees
There are three teams legitimately in the race here. Our prediction is that the Blue Jays will hold on to win the AL East for the first time since 2015. But the Red Sox and Yankees will still reach the postseason as the No. 4 and 5 seeds, respectively.
For Toronto, the biggest key will be to get Bo Bichette—who leads the league in both hits and doubles—back from a left knee sprain. With Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Addison Barger, the Blue Jays could take a pretty impressive lineup into the postseason.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are almost certainly going to be without star rookie Roman Anthony for the remainder of the regular season as he recovers from a left oblique strain. But Alex Cora's lineup still includes Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Trevor Story. There's enough here to get into the playoffs, even if it ends up as a wild-card team, as opposed to AL East Champions.
The Yankees, last year's AL pennant winners, will return to the postseason as the No. 5 seed. Aaron Judge is going to win his third AL MVP in the last four seasons, while Giancarlo Stanton has hit like he did during last year's run to the World Series. It is fair to wonder if the Yankees have what it will take to make a deep postseason run, but they are definitely a playoff team.
American League Central
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Projected Winner: Detroit Tigers
Projected Wild-Card Teams: None
A year ago, the AL Central sent three teams to the playoffs with the Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals and Tigers. This time around, it will only be Detroit returning to October play.
Perhaps more than any team in the AL, the Tigers need to get a first-round bye so they can set their rotation up to have Tarik Skubal—who is on pace to win his second straight Cy Young Award—pitch Game 1 of the ALDS. As the best pitcher in baseball, the Tigers will have the advantage in any game that Skubal takes the ball.
With that said, there are very serious questions beyond Skubal. Casey Mize joined Skubal at the All-Star Game, but has a 5.23 ERA since then. Jack Flaherty's second stint with the Tigers hasn't gone as well as the first, with the 29-year-old having a 4.69 ERA over 29 starts this year. Charlie Morton also hasn't provided much for the Tigers since being acquired, as he has a 6.09 ERA with Detroit.
In addition to getting their rotation beyond Skubal in order, the Tigers also need to get some other key pieces back (or back on track) before October. Kyle Finnegan is currently on the injured list with a right adductor strain. Javier Báez's revival was one of the great first-half stories, but he is hitting .215 since the All-Star Break. Gleyber Torres also has a .672 OPS in the second half.
Detroit is going to make the playoffs, probably with a first-round bye. But there are definitely some questions that need to be answered prior to the postseason.
American League West
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Projected Winner: Seattle Mariners
Projected Wild-Card Teams: Houston Astros
This is still a three-team race, with the Mariners, Astros and Texas Rangers all alive both in the AL West and wild-card races.
Ultimately, we're betting on Seattle rounding into shape and winning this division. They need some combination of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo to pitch more like themselves, but if that happens, the Mariners could become a dark horse World Series contender. They have an excellent closer, and for once, a really strong lineup. Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor were acquired at the trade deadline, joining a lineup that already included Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena.
The Astros could still be a really dangerous team in the playoffs, particularly if they get Josh Hader back from a left shoulder strain, although that seems unlikely. The Astros have a really strong one-two punch in the rotation with Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, and a lineup that's very postseason tested. That should be enough for them to at least get into the playoffs for the ninth consecutive year.
It's admirable how well the Rangers are playing right now, but they've lost ace Nathan Eovaldi (right rotator cuff strain) for the season, while two-time World Series MVP Corey Seager is still working his way back from an appendectomy. There's just too much working against Bruce Bochy's squad.
National League East
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Projected Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Wild-Card Teams: None
When the Phillies completed a four-game sweep of the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park this past week, they not only essentially locked up their second NL East title in a row, but made it a real possibility that the Mets will miss the playoffs altogether.
The Phillies appear pretty likely to get one of the two first-round byes in the NL, which would be huge as they try to get Turner's right hamstring healthy. In general, this is an older team, and guys like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto could benefit from some time off.
New York missing the playoffs here is the most noteworthy takeaway. But it wasn't just the series against the Phillies—the Mets are 21-31 since the All-Star Break, and 3-9 in September. The San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds are nipping on their heels for the final wild-card spot, and nothing the Mets have done recently leads you to believe they'll hold off both of those teams.
If the Mets do miss the playoffs with a payroll just shy of $340 million, it would be interesting to see how owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns respond. Would they really fire manager Carlos Mendoza a year after reaching the NLCS? Stearns has already said no, but if Mendoza can't stop the bleeding this September, perhaps that will change.
National League Central
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Projected Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
Projected Wild-Card Teams: Chicago Cubs
The Brewers are almost certainly going to win the NL Central for the fourth time in the last five seasons, but the Cubs have played well enough to be the top wild-card team in the NL.
For Milwaukee, it's been a magical season that included a 14-game winning streak that ran into mid-August. Freddy Peralta is headed for a top-five finish in NL Cy Young Award voting, while Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich and Isaac Collins have all had very nice seasons. As we stated in the intro slide, though, this is a team where it feels like manager Pat Murphy has gotten more out of it than could have reasonably been expected.
In addition to holding off the Phillies for the No. 1 seed in the NL playoffs, the Brewers would also love for All-Star closer Trevor Megill to return from his right flexor strain and build a bit of momentum.
The Cubs, meanwhile, will get to host the NLWCS at Wrigley Field if they hold onto the top wild-card seed in the senior circuit. If they hope to have any chance at making a deep playoff run, though, Craig Counsell's club desperately needs Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki to recover from brutal second halves.
National League West
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Projected Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected Wild-Card Teams: San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
The Dodgers haven't been the superteam many expected them to be before the season, but the defending World Series Champions are still going to have enough to win the NL West title. And come playoff time, it's going to be very difficult to beat a team that has Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Will Smith in its lineup four times in seven games.
The Padres are going to be in the playoffs, but it's a matter of what form. They're still pushing the Dodgers in the NL West, but the most likely outcome is they'll be the second wild-card team and the No. 5 seed in the postseason. Nick Pivetta has had a tremendous first season in San Diego, but the Padres desperately need some combination of Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish to give them a better feeling about their starting rotation heading into the playoffs.
Bob Melvin appeared to be on the hot seat not long ago in San Francisco, but the Giants have won seven of their first 10 games in the month of September, and appear poised to push past the struggling Mets and into the playoffs.
It's been an uneven season for the Giants, but Logan Webb and Robbie Ray at the top of their rotation could make San Francisco a dangerous team in a short series early in the playoffs.
AL Playoff Predictions
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ALWCS 1: Mariners (3) over Astros (6)
Whoever wins the AL West might just be giving themselves the opportunity to host the runner-up in the ALWCS. Beating Brown, Valdez and a strong Houston bullpen in a best-of-three series might be hard, but at home we're going to bet on Woo, Gilbert and Kirby meeting the challenge.
ALWCS 2: Red Sox (4) over Yankees (5)
It may not mean what it did 20 years ago, but MLB would still love to have a Yankees-Red Sox postseason series. Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello taking the ball at Fenway Park in a short series—with Aroldis Chapman looming in the bullpen against his former team—will be enough for the Red Sox to eliminate their biggest rivals.
ALDS 1: Mariners (3) over Tigers (2)
This might be controversial, but if the Mariners A) win the AL West and B) defeat the Astros in the ALWCS, they will be pretty hot by the ALDS. Skubal is great, but the Tigers will be screwed if they don't take Game 1 the way their staff looks right now. Seattle has a deeper starting rotation and a better lineup, so we're picking the upset here.
ALDS 2: Blue Jays (1) over Red Sox (4)
If the aforementioned Anthony is back by this point, the Red Sox will obviously stand a better chance. But the Blue Jays will have home-field advantage and while they don't necessarily have one dominant starter, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Max Scherzer give them a pretty deep rotation that will be an advantage as the postseason series get longer.
ALCS: Mariners (3) over Blue Jays (1)
We've talked quite a bit about the lineup and starting rotation of the Mariners, but a bullpen that includes Andrés Muñoz (1.57 ERA, 35 saves), Matt Brash (1.69 ERA), Eduard Bazardo (2.45 ERA) and Gabe Speier (2.72 ERA) could ultimately be the difference in this series. Jeff Hoffman (4.76 ERA, 30 saves), Yariel Rodríguez (3.06 ERA) and Seranthony Domínguez (3.36 ERA) don't inspire the same type of confidence.
NL Playoff Predictions
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NLWCS 1: Giants (6) over Dodgers (3)
Like we said, in a short series, Logan Webb and Robbie Ray will be a scary one-two punch in a best-of-three series. When you also add in that future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander has a 2.95 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star Break, we're going to say that the Giants upset their division rivals and end the hopes of the Dodgers repeating on the backs of their starting pitching.
NLWCS 2: Padres (5) over Cubs (4)
Another, slight, upset. But Kyle Tucker is playing through a hairline fracture in his right hand, while, as mentioned previously, Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki have struggled since the playoffs. The Padres have a deep bullpen and star-studded lineup. If they can get one or two pitchers hot behind Pivetta, they could go on a run.
NLDS 1: Phillies (2) over Giants (6)
Coming off the bye, the Phillies will get to send Cristopher Sánchez to the mound in Game 1, with some combination of Ranger Suárez, Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola behind him. Obviously, the Phillies wish they had Wheeler. But they still have the pitching to match up with the Giants, especially since Webb and Ray (at least) will have pitched already in the NLWCS.
NLDS 2: Brewers (1) over Padres (5)
The magic will continue for the Brewers in this series, with Peralta, Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester giving you a better feeling than San Diego's rotation after Pivetta. If hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski isn't used as a starter in this series, he could become quite the weapon in a bullpen that already includes Megill and Abner Uribe.
NLCS: Phillies (2) over Brewers (1)
Assuming Trea Turner is back and productive, he, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Harrison Bader and Brandon Marsh give the Phillies a leg up on the Brewers in the lineup. Even without Wheeler, the Phillies definitely have the better starting rotation. And with the midseason additions of Jhoan Duran and David Robertson, Dave Dombrowski has built a bullpen capable of taking down the top-seeded Brewers to give the Phillies their second NL pennant in four years.
World Series Prediction: Mariners over Phillies
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The Phillies did sweep the Mariners in three games at Citizens Bank Park in August.
But as we've said repeatedly, for the Mariners to make it this far, some guys not currently performing up to their baseball card—like Gilbert, Kirby and Castillo—will have to get hot. If they do, Seattle will have the best starting rotation in baseball considering how Woo has thrown this season.
Seattle also has the sluggers to go toe-to-toe with the Phillies, who can look like world-beaters when Schwarber and Harper go on power tears. The only player who's hit more home runs than Schwarber this season is Raleigh, and Suárez himself has 45, even if he's slowed since getting traded back to the Mariners.
It's worth noting that with one disastrous week, the Mariners could wind up falling out of the division race or even missing the postseason. But in a wide-open year, particularly in the AL, they are a team with perhaps the highest ceiling in a best-case scenario. And if that ceiling is reached, they'll both reach the World Series for the first time and win it.
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