How A'ja Wilson, Aces Reshaped into Juggernaut No One Wants to Face in WNBA Playoffs

There's 9:10 left in the first quarter as Chelsea Gray works to bring the ball up the right side of the floor. Minnesota Lynx wing Kayla McBride mirrors Gray in space. A'ja Wilson creeps up to the right wing in preparation for a ball screen with Gray, but Napheesa Collier overplays her right shoulder to cut off her path.

Wilson and Gray have seen this kind of overplay hundreds, if not thousands, of times. They operate on autopilot; Wilson spins off Collier, while Gray slips a pass over the top before Wilson gets fully turned around. Courtney Williams meets Wilson on the catch while Collier recovers—that's two on the ball!—and the chain reaction starts.

Wilson fires a pass to NaLyssa Smith, though the pass is a bit low. As Smith recovers and looks for the next pass to make, Kierstan Bell dives from the left corner and establishes positioning against Williams. Smith feeds Bell, who generates but ultimately misses a solid look in the paint.

The Lynx immediately look to turn defense into offense. Williams trots up the left side of the floor with Wilson in front of her. The Aces decided on this cross-match to start, with Jackie Young taking the Collier assignment in an effort to seamlessly switch two-player actions between Williams and Collier.

As a simple counter, the Lynx decide to post Collier instead of inviting that switch with a screen or handoff. Collier cuts down the middle of the floor and seals Young, then receives an entry pass from Alanna Smith. Gray immediately comes with a double-team from the weak side, leaving Wilson to "split the difference" between Williams and McBride. Two passes later, McBride is firing the first of what felt like a million open threes in this game.

Not only would the Aces eventually lose this game, they'd do so in historic fashion. The 111-58 drubbing was the biggest road win in WNBA history. The loss dropped the Aces to 14-14, barely holding on to the No. 8 seed.

It was a troubling juncture for a team looking to regroup after a failed three-peat bid—a blessing in and of itself, but a failed goal nonetheless. Heading into their August 3 matchup with the Golden State Valkyries, the Aces ranked ninth in offensive rating (101.0), defensive rating (104.0) and net rating (-3.0).

To the Aces' credit, they turned that defeat into a near-historic springboard. They haven't lost a game since that meeting, reeling off 12 straight wins and surging to the No. 2 seed. They've been the league's best offense (113.1) and third best defense (100.0) during this stretch, and have been absolute monsters in the clutch (7-0 record).

Ahead of their final regular-season matchup with the Minnesota Lynx, which may double as an MVP-defining game, it's worth looking into what's gone right with the Aces.

A'ja Wilson Makes Her M'VP Push

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

During The Streak: 26.8 points (51% on 2s, 45% on 3s, 87.9% FT), 12.4 rebounds (3.5 OREB), 2.4 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.0 blocks in 33.4 minutes

Stop me if you've heard this before: The Aces go as A'ja Wilson goes.

It's a heavy burden. It's an unfair burden. Ultimately, it's one that Wilson carries with more grace than most people could dream of.

Even independent of the MVP conversation, it's important to contextualize what Wilson has been tasked with this season. She's dealt with a second defender on nearly 17 percent of her touches (16.8), trailing only Brittany Griner (18.2%) and Bri Jones (17%) among 125 players to log 500 touches.

That's dipped slightly during the win streak (16.2%), but that's still a top-five mark in the league over the past month and would also rank third if extrapolated across the entire season.

The nature of the help defense Wilson sees—sometimes it's immediate, sometimes it arrives late—continues to evolve. She's noted that it can be difficult to prepare for at times; the pregame film can be different than the on-court product.

"It really is hard, because you try to watch film and [realize] they're not going to guard you that way," Wilson said. "When you catch the ball, you have to make decisions quickly, but [in a way] that's best for you and your team."

Wilson has worked to attack quickly—her average touch time during this streak is slightly lower than her overall mark, for example—but the Aces have continued being intentional about moving Wilson around the board. They'll start possessions with her in the corner before setting off-ball screens for her.

There have been some fun flashes to the middle of the floor in an effort to make those help decisions more difficult for defenses—and easier for Wilson to diagnose.

Defensively, Wilson has taken more ownership in a couple of ways. For most of the season, the Aces have dialed back their help defense in an effort to keep things 2-on-2 -- and ideally keep themselves out of rotation and limit three-point attempts in the process.

Before the streak, that often meant Wilson having to disrupt or save possessions with deflections or recovery blocks or risk giving up more fruitful stuff. Wilson has talked about the need for the defense to showcase layers, and they've gotten to those more consistently during the streak.

That brings us to the second thing: the players, led by Wilson, have been doing their own defensive scouting reports. As head coach Becky Hammon recently described, the players think through who and how they want to guard before collaborating with the coaching staff. Hammon will challenge them with questions and potential counters before finalizing plans.

We've seen the Aces switch at a higher rate as of late, and part of that is due to them leaning more into cross-matching. You'll often find Wilson starting games defending a guard now, with NaLyssa Smith and Chelsea Gray taking on frontcourt assignments.

"I love that [my teammates] trust me in those situations, because two years ago I think they would've been like 'girl, you are not guarding a guard', Wilson said after a Dream matchup where she spent time on fellow Gamecock Te-Hina Paopao and Maya Caldwell in different spots.

With this surge on both ends, it's become a lot easier to make an MVP case for Wilson. She's second in scoring (23.4, right behind Napheesa Collier's 23.5) and rebounds (10.1), leads the league in blocks (2.2) and ranks in the top ten in steals (1.6). The Aces have a plus-9.4 net rating in Wilson's minutes, but have fallen off a cliff in the minutes she's been on the bench or unavailable (minus-17.4).

If you're a Without Player X truther in MVP discussions, Wilson has the strongest case of the primary characters (Collier, Alyssa Thomas).

Jackie Young Continues to Evolve

Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images

During The Streak: 15.9 points (56.8% on 2s, 37.1% on 3s, 81.5% FT), 5.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.5 steals

Young's play hasn't been as loud—when is she ever loud, though?—but it's hard to deny how impactful she's been.

She's taken on more initiation duties, forming the league's best pick-and-roll tandem with Wilson (405 picks, 1.11 PPP) while also bumping up their handoff volume (144 total, 3rd in the league). What's stood out most during this run has been Young's downhill decision-making.

In what has been a multi-year progression for Young, she's a lot more willing to pull up if teams give her too much space. She leads the league in pull-up three attempts (51) and has taken 21 of them during this win streak. She's been deadly inside the arc during this run, converting over 58 percent of her pull-up twos. There's been growing comfort with her floater, a necessary counter with how teams have worked to flood the paint against the Aces at large.

Beyond her scoring, Young has become more audacious as a passer. She's more willing to fire the ball into tight windows; the wraparound is becoming a favorite of hers. That aggression, something Hammon has long pushed for, in conjunction with her scoring chops, have made her more unpredictable and dangerous.

The Aces continue to rely on Young defensively against top perimeter options, though in light of the matchup toggling and the volume of switching, she's had to guard a little bit of everyone in a pinch.

Speaking of which...

Chelsea Gray: Professional Power Forward

Kate Frese/NBAE via Getty Images

During The Streak: 10.9 points (53.4% on 2s, 36.8% on 3s, 81.8% FT), 3.8 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.7 blocks

It is time for Chelsea Gray to receive her flowers for the work she's doing defensively.

Gray has logged 40 or more defensive half-court possessions against three players during this win streak: 6'4" Satou Sabally (49), 6'2" Naz Hillmon (49), and 6'4" Leonie Fiebich (40). She's spent time on Alyssa Thomas (14) and Angel Reese (10). Among her top 10 matchups during this stretch, only one (Te-Hina Paopao, 29) is an actual point guard.

The Aces have absolutely blitzed teams in their minutes with Wilson as the lone big, and Gray's ability to defend bigger players is, funny enough, a big reason it works. Only Natasha Mack (49) has defended more post-ups than Gray (42) over the last month; teams have generated a paltry 0.7 points per possession on trips where they try to attack her.

Just as impressive, and arguably more than her post-up defense, has been her off-ball work. With Wilson on the perimeter more often, Gray has to do a lot of reading and directing. When teams try to poke at the Aces' switching by attacking others, it's often Gray crashing down with a double team, looking to strip the ball away or force a tie-up.

Of course, it also helps that Gray is back to knocking down kill-shots and converting passes that most people wouldn't even think of, much less attempt. She's been a legitimate two-way force; if this is the version of Gray the Aces get in the playoffs...good luck.

Additions Stepping Up

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

During the Streak

Jewell Loyd: 11.8 points (43.2% on 2s, 40.8% on 3s, 85% FT) off the bench, 1.5 steals

NaLyssa Smith: 7.7 points (59.3% on 2s, 44.4% on 3s, 61.5% FT), 5.4 rebounds (1.3 OREB)

Dana Evans: 7.3 points (44.2% on 2s, 51.7% on 3s, 83.3% FT), 1.9 assists

It took an earlier Lynx loss, this time a 31-point defeat back on July 25, for Hammon to pull the trigger on another lineup change. Out went Jewell Loyd, the former All-Star still looking to find her footing. In came Kierstan Bell, an energetic forward looking to find a level of consistency.

It's hard to say the move hasn't worked out: the Aces are 14-1 since Loyd has gone to the bench.

She's played more freely, and that's manifested itself with her scoring aggression. She's not just draining threes at a high clip; she's taking them without much of a thought. Only three players are taking more threes than Loyd (6.8) since becoming a reserve; in fact, she's the only reserve in the top ten of attempts—top-15 if you disqualify Kate Martin for her two starts.

Beyond the three-point shooting, she doesn't mind getting her hands dirty. Loyd's been a willing and effective screener, particularly prying Wilson open for paint touches. She's also saved many offensive possessions by crashing from the perimeter for rebounds.

NaLyssa Smith has been another mainstay in the starting lineup, though that shift happened back on July 6. Her prowess on the offensive glass has been an even bigger boost for a team that, under Hammon, has historically punted offensive rebounding in favor of transition defense. Smith has also done a lot of unsung dirty work defending centers during this run, further unlocking Wilson's ability to slide up and down the positional scale.

Dana Evans has been a consistent source of energy on both ends during this run. She doesn't mind pushing pace, often works to get into the paint, and, on her best nights, has complemented her paint pressure with a bevy of pull-up jumpers. Defensively, she's often asked to pick up ball-handlers beyond half-court in an effort to bother them and bleed the clock.

And while Bell isn't technically a new addition to the team, we can fit her in as a relatively new member of the rotation at least. Her numbers aren't as gaudy during the win streak (4.1 points, 2.0 rebounds in 15.0 minutes), but her screening and cutting have helped the Aces maintain or recapture their flow in the half-court. With her in the starting lineup, the Aces, in a literal sense, don't have a weak defender on the floor, further enhancing their switching capabilities.

What Comes Next

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

We have a superstar battle on our hands, friends.

The Lynx have already locked up homecourt throughout the playoffs, thanks to their absurd 32-8 record. They technically don't have anything to play for, but considering the not-so-subtle chirping from head coach Cheryl Reeve about the team's defense (they're first in defensive rating with a gap, but there's clearly a higher standard she's holding them to), and the potential award implications from this game, I would imagine the Lynx are going to be up for this one.

For the Aces, they're still fighting to lock up the two-seed considering they, the Dream, and the Mercury all have 26-14 records heading into Wednesday's action.

They've yet to beat the Lynx this season; all three losses have been by double-digits, and the deficit has increased in all three meetings (14, 31, 53). This is a pretty big measuring stick game in addition to, again, the potential award implications.

This game also kicks off the final homestand of the season for the Aces. After the Lynx, they'll face the Chicago Sky in back-to-back games (9/7, 9/9) before closing out the season on the road against the still-playoff-eligible Los Angeles Sparks (9/11).

Beyond the actual winning streak, it's important that the Aces have found a belief level in what they're doing. Even when shots don't fall, it's easier to see what they're attempting to get into. The defense isn't perfect -- I'm still keeping an eye on some of the scram switching from them -- but there's more conviction in who and how they want to guard. They look and feel like they've found themselves; something that seemed doubtful, if not impossible, a month ago.