Re-Sign or Move On? Predicting the Outcome for Each MLB Team's Top 2025-26 Free Agent

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would have been the top free agent available this upcoming offseason had he played out his contract year, but there are still plenty of star players set to hit the open market when the 2025 season concludes.

We've projected whether each team's top impending free agent is likely to return, focusing on what will happen, not what should.

AL East

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Alex Bregman

Toronto Blue Jays: Bo Bichette, Stay

The Blue Jays retained Bichette last offseason when many thought they should blow up their core. He's rewarded them by rebounding from a disappointing 2024 season and leading the league in hits for a team that looks like a World Series contender.

Bichette has long been seen as a potential target for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he gave a revealing quote to MLB.com's Keegan Matheson earlier this year about his future in Toronto:

"My priorities have always been to win, to be part of an organization that has that same goal in mind and I want to play in an exciting environment. We're checking all those boxes. It's a special time right now and the fans are definitely making their case known."

The Blue Jays have struggled to attract free agents in recent years but remain aggressive spenders, and they will do what it takes to re-sign Bichette.

New York Yankees: Cody Bellinger, Stay

Bellinger may never recapture his MVP form, but he's had a strong first season in the Bronx—hitting .279 with 26 home runs, 83 RBI, and an .837 OPS. He's also displayed tremendous defensive flexibility.

Bellinger is expected to opt out of the final $25 million he's scheduled to make in 2026, the final year of a three-year, $80 million deal. He may be looking at another similar deal in terms of length, but he only just turned 30 and won't have a qualifying offer attached to him.

So, the Yankees should be motivated to retain Bellinger, unless they have a bigger play—such as Kyle Tucker—in mind.

Boston Red Sox: Alex Bregman, Stay

It's been an excellent first season in Boston for Bregman, who has posted an .868 OPS and played strong defense at third base.

He's a lock to opt out of the final two years of his $120 million deal, and he will make out better in free agency this time because he is coming off of a better season and won't have a qualifying offer attached to him.

But for as much as it feels like the Red Sox almost have too much position talent, they moved on from Rafael Devers and manager Alex Cora has a long-standing relationship with Bregman dating back to their time in Houston.

There will be other suitors, but the Red Sox should be seen as the favorites for Bregman.

Tampa Bay Rays: Adrian Houser, Go

The Rays traded Danny Jansen to the Milwaukee Brewers, and let Ha-Seong Kim—who likely wasn't going to opt out anyway—go on waivers to the Atlanta Braves.

Houser is really their only notable free agent, and considering he has posted a 4.85 ERA over five starts since being acquired from the Chicago White Sox, he'll probably not be re-signed.

Baltimore Orioles: Zach Eflin, Go

The book on Eflin has always been that he's a really talented pitcher who struggles to stay healthy. This year was no different, as his season has concluded by a lumbar microdiscectomy after posting a 5.93 ERA over 14 starts.

There will be some team that takes a flier on him on a one-year deal in the offseason, but considering the Orioles need more certainty in their starting rotation, Baltimore probably won't be it.

AL Central

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Detroit Tigers: Gleyber Torres, Go

Torres signed a one-year, $15 million deal to rebuild his value in the offseason, and he appeared on his way to doing that when he rode an .812 OPS in the first half to an All-Star Game appearance.

However, since the Midsummer Classic, he is hitting .231 with a .675 OPS.

Between Javier Báez, Colt Keith, Zach McKinstry and Matt Vierling, the Tigers will have alternatives at second base that allow them to reinvest Torres' $15 million elsewhere next season.

Kansas City Royals: Mike Yastrzemski, Stay

Seth Lugo would have been the big free agent for the Royals this offseason, but he agreed to a two-year, $46 million extension in July.

However, Mike Yastrzemski has homered seven times and posted a .976 OPS since being acquired at the trade deadline.

Considering how bleak Kansas City's outfield production was before his arrival, it stands to reason they could try to bring him back on a one-year deal for his age-35 season in 2026.

Cleveland Guardians: Lane Thomas, Go

After releasing Carlos Santana earlier this month, Thomas is now the most notable free agent the Guardians will have this offseason.

While he did hit an ALDS grand slam off of Tarik Skubal last year, he's largely been ineffective since being acquired from the Washington Nationals.

With a .189 batting average and multiple IL stints to show for parts of two seasons in Cleveland, it's safe to say Thomas will be looking for a new employer next year.

Minnesota Twins: Christian Vázquez, Go

The Twins traded away pretty much every notable veteran on their team outside of Byron Buxton at the trade deadline.

Vázquez is one of the few remaining, and that's because he has hit .212 with a .567 OPS over the lifetime of a three-year, $30 million deal in Minnesota.

Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert Jr., Go

Even for a team without a ton of financial commitments moving forward, the White Sox can't justify picking up the $20 million player option on an injury-plagued player who has a .660 OPS since the start of the 2024 season.

He's still only 28, so the team declining his option might be the best thing that could happen for the former All-Star.

AL West

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Houston Astros: Framber Valdez, Go

Whether it's been Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlander, the Astros haven't typically gotten into bidding wars for their star pitchers in free agency.

Certainly, Houston would like to keep Valdez, who has a 3.18 ERA and two complete games over 26 starts this season. But recent history tells us they are more likely to let another team pay him over $100 million heading into his age-32 season in free agency.

Seattle Mariners: Eugenio Suárez, Go

Suárez was an NL MVP candidate with the Arizona Diamondbacks, hitting .36 home runs and posting an .897 OPS in 106 games.

Since being traded back to the Mariners, though, he is hitting .188 with six home runs and a .665 OPS.

He may well like Seattle, but he's produced significantly worse over two stints as a Mariner than he did with the Diamondbacks or Cincinnati Reds.

So, Suárez will try to help the Mariners win their first World Series this year, before looking for greener hitting pastures in the winter.

Texas Rangers: Merrill Kelly, Go

Kelly has pitched well since being acquired from the Diamondbacks, posting a 3.31 ERA over his first six starts with the Rangers.

The problem is, he's going to be 37 in October. With Jacob deGrom (now 37) and Nathan Eovaldi (36 in February) already under contract for 2026, it wouldn't make a ton of sense to pour more resources into a pitcher at an advanced age, even if he's still pitching at a high level.

Los Angeles Angels: Kenley Jansen, Stay

Jansen has been lights-out since the All-Star break, with a 2.08 ERA and nine saves in 17 appearances.

He's currently fourth in MLB history with 472 saves. He could pass Hall of Famer Lee Smith (478) for third early next season, and he has a chance to join Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman as only closers with 500 career saves.

If the Angels are willing to continue guaranteeing Jansen save opportunities, he'll be back for another year.

Athletics: Sean Newcomb, Go

Since being acquired from the Boston Red Sox in May, Newcomb has posted a 2.05 ERA over 31 games. He's pitched well enough with the A's to get a deal from a contending team that plays at an MLB stadium in 2026.

NL East

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Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Schwarber, Stay

Schwarber has the Phillies over a barrel having hit a career-high 49 home runs in his contract year. But both Phillies managing partner John Middleton and president of baseball operations have reiterated a desire to retain him.

It will likely take four or five years—and probably fending off other suitors—but there would be a mutiny among the fanbase if the Phillies allow him to leave in free agency.

New York Mets: Pete Alonso, Go

It was an uncomfortable first trip into free agency for Alonso, who seemed more interested in the Mets than they were in him.

Ultimately, he returned on a two-year, $54 million deal that will allow him to opt out this offseason. Considering he's hit 31 home runs and has an .862 OPS, he is going to opt out.

Coming off of a better season than last year and with no qualifying offer attached to him this time, Alonso should make out better in free agency. But president of baseball operations David Stearns really didn't seem interested in giving a long-term deal to Alonso last offseason.

Now that he's the franchise's home run king, Alonso might not be willing to be as patient waiting for the Mets as he was last offseason.

Miami Marlins: N/A

They don't have one player scheduled to become a free agent after this season. It would be impressive if it wasn't so sad.

Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna, Go

Ozuna has hit 147 home runs in parts of six seasons with the Braves. But while he's still productive, his OPS has dropped from .925 in 2024 to .762 in 2025.

After a disappointing season, the Braves will likely be looking to shake things up, and letting Ozuna, who will turn 35 in November, walk would be a way to do that.

Washington Nationals: Josh Bell, Go

The Nationals traded away Kyle Finnegan, but Bell remained because his second stint in D.C. hasn't been a particularly fruitful one.

Bell has hit 16 home runs this season, but he did so with a .230 batting average and .712 OPS. The Nationals need to aim much higher—perhaps Alonso?—at first base this offseason.

NL Central

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Milwaukee Brewers: Brandon Woodruff, Stay

Perhaps this is too sentimental a take considering Milwaukee once non-tendered him, but Woodruff feels like a lifetime Brewer.

After missing close to two years following shoulder surgery, he has a 3.69 ERA across 10 starts for Milwaukee this season.

For as many notable players as the Brewers have let walk in recent years, Woodruff seems like someone the Crew should try to retain.

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Tucker, Stay

Given president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer seems to be more on the conservative side of things, it's possible a team like the Yankees comes in and makes an offer the Cubs don't want to match.

But this is a major-market team that has been criticized for not acting like that in recent years. They need to get this one right.

Cincinnati Reds: Nick Martinez, Go

The Reds extended the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer to Martinez last season after he posted a 3.10 ERA and 3.21 FIP across 142.1 innings. He chose to accept it, knowing he wouldn't touch that number on the open market.

Martinez's second year in Cincinnati hasn't gone nearly as well, as he's pitched to a 4.69 ERA and 4.35 FIP over 151.2 innings pitched. He'll depart in the offseason, and the Reds will reallocate that significant chunk of change elsewhere.

St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas, Go

Mikolas once was an excellent pitcher for the Cardinals, but while he's continued to eat innings, he has a 5.04 ERA over the lifetime of his three-year, $55.75 million deal.

If the 37-year-old hopes to continue his career, it's going to have to be elsewhere.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Andrew McCutchen, Stay

McCutchen recently told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Jason Mackey he wants to continue to play in 2026. Considering he's hit 12 home runs and driven in 50 runs, there's probably a real chance the Pirates give the 38-year-old an opportunity to do that.

With that said, it feels like part of the reason Bob Nutting and company continue to bring back McCutchen is to give a fanbase they've otherwise derived of a product worth watching something to cling onto.

NL West

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Los Angeles Dodgers: Michael Kopech, Go

The Dodgers will presumably exercise Max Muncy's $10 million option for 2026, leaving Kopech as their top free agent.

Kopech has a minuscule 0.87 ERA over 32 regular-season appearances with the Dodgers between 2024 and 2025, and he was a key cog in their bullpen a year ago en route to the World Series.

But if Kopech—who was activated off the injured list Monday—isn't able to stay healthy for the remainder of this season, it's fair to wonder what level of interest the Dodgers will have in bringing him back.

San Diego Padres: Dylan Cease, Go

Though his 3.55 expected ERA and 3.73 FIP suggest he's been unlucky, the 4.82 ERA Cease has over 27 starts this season is an ugly mark. Perhaps there's an outside chance he takes a qualifying offer to reset his value.

What's more likely is Cease declines the qualifying offer and signs a multi-year deal with an early opt-out, as the Padres gave Nick Pivetta ahead of this season.

Maybe that will be with the Padres, but there will surely be another shiny object for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller to go get.

San Francisco Giants: Justin Verlander, Go

Don't look now, but after posting a 4.70 ERA over 15 starts in the first half of the season, Verlander has a 3.60 ERA in nine outings since the All-Star break.

The Giants will probably go in another direction, but the future Hall of Famer has shown enough to intrigue someone that allows him to come back for a 21st season.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen, Stay

With a 4.94 ERA and 4.48 FIP over 28 starts this year, it's been a disastrous contract year for Gallen.

However, the Diamondbacks chose to hold onto him in advance of the trade deadline. That might mean they think getting back draft-pick compensation if he declines the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere will be more valuable than any prospect capital they would have acquired.

But what's also possible is they think there's a real chance the former All-Star is back in 2026, either after accepting the qualifying offer of signing another deal.

Colorado Rockies: Germán Márquez, Go

The former All-Star has a 6.14 ERA in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. He'll be an interesting guy for someone to give a minor league deal with a spring training invite, but after a decade of pitching his home games at Coors Field, it's time for a change.