UFC on Fox 16 Preliminary Card Predictions
July has been a busy month for the UFC, and MMA fans aren't getting a break anytime soon. That's because UFC on Fox 16 marks the UFC's return to Chicago and network TV this Saturday.
The card is headlined by a title fight between TJ Dillashaw and Renan Barao. It is a rematch, as their first encounter saw Dillashaw score a huge upset win to take the title off Barao and intensify the rivalry between Team Alpha Male and Nova Uniao.
The UFC's venture into Scotland last Saturday was a success in terms of my preliminary predictions record, as I ran a 5-1 tally. Prior to that, Wednesday's offering saw me pull a perfect 6-0 record. Hopefully, that momentum continues here.
Without further ado, let's take a look at the preliminary bouts and make some predictions.
2015 Riley's Record: 90-53
Last Event: 5-1 (UFC Fight Night 72)
Zak Cummings vs. Dominique Steele
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Kicking off the card we have a welterweight showdown, as Zak Cummings welcomes newcomer and CES champion Dominique Steele to the Octagon. Steele steps in for the oft-injured Antonio Braga Neto, who again was hurt during training camp.
Cummings is a workmanlike wrestler with a good deal of experience. He does his best work when he can close the distance and drag the fight to the mat, though he has worked hard on his boxing.
He is 2-1 with the UFC right now, with his only loss coming to Gunnar Nelson in his most recent offering. Before that, he submitted Benny Alloway and decisioned Yan Cabral. As a result, Cummings has a lot of momentum at 170 pounds.
As for Steele, he's a ground-and-pound specialist who throws all of his power behind his strikes. His upright striking has improved, as the athletic powerhouse swings heavy in every strike he throws.
He enters the UFC on a two-fight winning streak, which saw him take the CES Welterweight Championship from the waist of UFC vet Chuck O'Neil. He has a good deal of experience at the high level, as he has competed in Bellator and Strikeforce in his pro career.
On short notice, Cummings is a difficult man to prepare for. Steele will have his moments, but expect Cummings to prevail with a workmanlike performance.
Prediction: Cummings def. Steele via decision
Jessamyn Duke vs. Elizabeth Phillips
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The women will take to the cage next, as Jessamyn Duke and Elizabeth Phillips duke it out to in an attempt to save their UFC roster spots.
Duke is a tall, lanky bantamweight with long limbs, though she does not always use that range effectively. She also is a solid grappler, using said long limbs to gain leverage and fish for submissions.
After starting her career 3-0, including a decision win in her UFC debut against Peggy Morgan, she has fallen on hard times. She suffered back-to-back losses to Bethe Correia and Leslie Smith, which puts her in a must-win situation here.
As for Phillips, the Sikjitsu rep is well-rounded, though grappling would likely be her preferred method of scrapping here. She is hard-nosed and throws wildly on the feet, though those punches are effective when they land.
Like Duke, Phillips is in dire straits here, as a loss would likely send her back to the regional scene. She has suffered two split-decision losses in her UFC tenure, coming up short against Valerie Letourneau and Milana Dudieva.
Neither woman has done a whole lot to instill much confidence in a victory. However, based on their first meeting as amateurs, which Duke won, I will go with Ronda Rousey's running mate.
Prediction: Duke def. Phillips via decision
Ramsey Nijem vs. Andrew Holbrook
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Next up are the lightweights, as Ramsey Nijem takes on the debuting Andrew Holbook. The newcomer gets this fight in place of Erik Koch, who dropped out of the bout because of an injury.
Nijem possesses a wrestling base, which he shows off frequently in bouts. He does have some hands as well, though, and although his chin has been blasted through before, he does land his shots with power.
This fight is vital for Nijem's tenure with the UFC, as he is 2-3 in his last five. Though he did defeat Beneil Dariush and Justin Edwards in that span, he has been knocked out by Diego Ferreira and Myles Jury, as well as submitted by James Vick.
Then there is Holbrook, an undefeated Indiana-based fighter with 10 victories to his name, all by finish. Nine of those wins have come by submission, which shows he prefers a mat war where he can search for his suffocating chokes.
This will be a big step up in competition for Holbrook, who has spent his career beating below-average talent in the Midwest regional circuit. That said, he did score a win over WSOF vet Ramico Blackmon recently, showing that he is ready for a real test.
Holbrook has yet to face high-level competition, and while Nijem is not world-class, he is the best man Holbrook has faced to this point. That's why the UFC veteran should take this one.
Prediction: Nijem def. Holbrook via decision
Daron Cruickshank vs. James Krause
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We stay in the lightweight division for the next bout, as exciting 155-pounders Daron Cruickshank and James Krause look to move back up the divisional ladder.
Cruickshank is a well-rounded fighter, possessing an extensive striking background and a collegiate wrestling pedigree. He has a wide stance and great flexibility, which allows him to snap off kicks quickly and unexpectedly.
He has had a long, successful UFC tenure thus far, proving his worth when he was cast on The Ultimate Fighter 15. He had a no-contest sandwiched in the middle of a win and a loss, outpointing Anthony Njokuani and succumbing to submission against Beneil Dariush in his most recent affair.
As for Krause, he was also on the 15th season of TUF, though he did not make it into the house. He is a gifted striker who can handle himself anywhere, which is seen in his submission victories.
He finds himself in a must-win situation, as he has dropped two in a row and is 1-3 in his last four. He did beat Jamie Varner in that stretch but took losses to Bobby Green, Jorge Masvidal and Valmir Lazaro.
This is a good matchup and an early competitor for Fight of the Night. Both men are well-rounded and do many things well, making this a tough pick. Cruickshank is just better at this point.
Prediction: Cruickshank def. Krause via decision
Eddie Wineland vs. Bryan Caraway
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The bantamweights are scheduled to throw down next, as Eddie Wineland makes his return to the cage after a lengthy jaw injury to take on the always tough Bryan Caraway.
Wineland is a striker who is known for his tight boxing ability. He has immense knockout power, especially for a 135-pounder.
He returns for the first time since May of last year, when Johnny Eduardo knocked him out and broke his jaw. Previous to that, Wineland defeated Yves Jabouin and had a title shot against Renan Barao, which shows he was a top 135er before his layoff.
As for Caraway, he is the wrestler to Wineland's boxer. He looks for the shot frequently, as he prefers grappling wars where he can control his opponent.
His latest outing saw him take a loss to Raphael Assuncao. That loss reversed a two-fight surge for Caraway, as he choked out Erik Perez and Johnny Bedford.
Caraway can make this an ugly fight, but Wineland is underrated at defending the takedown. He will keep this upright, tag Caraway with some shots and win a convincing decision.
Prediction: Wineland def. Caraway via decision
Kenny Robertson vs. Ben Saunders
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Next up are the welterweights, as resurgent banger Ben Saunders looks to make it three in a row in his return to the UFC against the gritty Kenny Robertson.
Saunders is a big welterweight, as the 6'3" striker is great in the clinch and at utilizing his knees. That's not to say that he can't handle himself on the mat, as he does have a good submission grappling game to complement his striking ability.
Since returning to the UFC, Saunders is 2-0 with the company. He earned a Submission of the Year in tapping Chris Heatherly with an omoplata and scored a victory over Joe Riggs in his most recent offering.
As for Robertson, he is a wrestler who has become a well-rounded mixed martial artist. Though wrestling is his game, he is comfortable wherever the fight goes and even strives on the feet now.
Robertson is riding a three-fight surge, which has pushed him up the welterweight ladder. In that time, he submitted Thiago Perpetuo, scored a decision over Ildemar Alcantara and viciously knocked out Sultan Aliev.
This is another tough matchup to call, so credit goes to Joe Silva for making competitive bouts. Robertson and Saunders will make this a back-and-forth affair, but when it's all said and done, Saunders will prevail.
Prediction: Saunders def. Robertson via decision
Jim Miller vs. Danny Castillo
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An intriguing battle at lightweight comes up next, as Danny Castillo takes on late-replacement opponent Jim Miller in a pivotal bout. Miller takes the place of Rustam Khabilov, who injured himself in the lead-up to this bout.
Miller is as well-rounded as they come, as he is an effective boxer, strong wrestler and good submission artist. That explains his longevity in the UFC, as he has remained toward the top of the division for a long time.
He is on a two-fight skid, losing a decision to Beneil Dariush and getting knocked out by Donald Cerrone. Previous to that, though, he was on a two-fight surge, submitting Fabricio Camoes and Yancy Medeiros.
As for Castillo, he is a wrestler who has been working hard on his striking. He tends to brawl on the feet, which gets him caught sometimes, but he can fall back on his wrestling if things aren't going his way.
Like Miller, he finds himself on a two-fight skid. In that time, he lost to Tony Ferguson and Paul Felder, the latter of whom knocked him out.
Although Miller has slowed a bit in recent times, he has fought guys like Castillo before and thrived. That will be the case again at UFC on Fox 16.
Prediction: Miller def. Castillo via decision
Gian Villante vs. Tom Lawlor
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Capping off the prelims is a light heavyweight showdown, as Tom Lawlor makes his long-awaited return to the cage against Gian Villante.
Lawlor is a wrestler who is moving up from middleweight for this bout. This is his first fight in more than two years, as the entertaining and colorful athlete has been battling injuries for a long time.
His last bout was against Michael Kuiper, whom he choked out back in April 2013. We will see if ring rust is a factor for Lawlor, as being away from the cage for such a long time can affect a competitor.
As for Villante, he is a striker who has improved his takedown defense and offense in recent outings. He is strong and athletic, as the former collegiate football player uses his natural gifts to his advantage frequently.
He is on a two-fight surge right now, which shows he's making a beeline for the top of the division. He earned a split verdict over Sean O'Connell before knocking out Corey Anderson in a violent, fun affair.
Villante has looked much improved in his most recent outings, and if he uses the blueprint he used to beat Anderson, he will be in good shape.
Prediction: Villante def. Lawlor via decision
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