6 Things We Got Wildly Wrong About MLB's 2025 Season
Around this time of year, it's always fun to look back at preseason predictions and pat yourself on the back for those that you got right—or at least those you can twist into convincing yourself you got right.
Rarely, though, is the opposite done.
So here's a look at six preseason predictions we got wildly wrong as the 2025 regular season approaches its final month.
Atlanta Braves Being Biggest NL Competition to the Dodgers
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A year ago, the Braves won 89 games and snuck into the postseason despite having almost the worst injury luck possible.
If that was the baseline, they felt like a team destined to win 95-100 games this season and become the biggest threats to the Dodgers in the National League.
Instead, the Braves are playing out the string in a lost season. Not only are they behind the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets in the NL East—which, while maybe not expected coming into the season, wouldn't have been shocking—but they're also behind the Miami Marlins.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has been tremendous since returning from a left ACL tear, but Spencer Strider hasn't been the same after his second major elbow surgery, as evidenced by his 5.24 ERA over 17 starts.
Elsewhere, closer Raisel Iglesias had a disastrous first half, Ozzie Albies is having a second straight poor offensive season, Jurickson Profar missed 80 games due to a PED suspension, and the trio of Austin Riley, Michael Harris II and Marcell Ozuna have all underwhelmed to varying degrees.
With the injury bug again nipping at reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale—who has been out since mid-June with a fractured left ribcage—and both Ozuna and Iglesias set to hit free agency, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has an interesting offseason ahead of him.
Adley Rutschman to Bounce Back After Disappointing Second Half of 2024
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When Adley Rutschman made his second consecutive All-Star Game appearance in 2024, it appeared he emerged as the best catcher in baseball. But his career has stalled since then.
In the second half of the 2024 season, the 27-year-old hit just .207 with a .585 OPS. Entering the season, he felt like a pretty obvious bounce-back candidate.
Instead, the switch-hitting catcher has batted just .227 with a .684 OPS this year, leaving serious questions about the 2019 No. 1 overall pick.
At one point, Rutschman seemed like a franchise pillar that even the Orioles—a team that isn't traditionally a major spender—had to find a way to keep over the long run. But the last year and a half might lead general manager Mike Elias to operate differently.
In fact, Rutschman could be an interesting change-of-scenery candidate in the offseason. He's got two years remaining of team control, and he will be entering his age-28 season. There will be teams that think they can tap back into what he showed early in his career and end up with one of the game's best catchers.
However, those same teams are unlikely to be willing to give up the same franchise-altering package of prospects they would have for him 12 months ago, so it will be interesting to see if the O's actually considering moving him.
In any event, 2025 has been extremely disappointing for Rutschman, which is indicative of larger problems in Baltimore.
Offseason Losses Would Finally Catch Up to Brewers
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The Milwaukee Brewers had a great 2024 regular season, where despite losing Corbin Burnes and manager Craig Counsell prior to the campaign, they still won 93 games and the NL Central title.
However, Willy Adames departing in free agency for the San Francisco Giants and star closer Devin Williams being dealt to the New York Yankees would surely mean the Brewers would come crashing back down to earth in 2025?
Wrong.
Despite starting the season 0-4, the Brewers have the best record in baseball and appear en route to a third consecutive NL Central title. In fact, after a red-hot June saw them go 17-7, Milwaukee rattled off 14 consecutive wins to begin August, putting the team in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed in the NL playoffs.
Trevor Megill has been one of the best closers in baseball, Freddy Peralta was an All-Star for the second season in a row, and Christian Yelich has had an excellent campaign after his 2024 was ended prematurely due to back surgery.
Still, this isn't a group that's going to produce an MVP or Cy Young Award winner. Milwaukee had a great culture under Counsell, and Pat Murphy has continued to get more from the whole than the sum of its parts since being promoted to manager prior to the 2024 season.
Giancarlo Stanton Wouldn't Have Much Left After Elbow Injuries
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When Giancarlo Stanton revealed during spring training that he had "severe" tendon injuries in both elbows, it felt ominous.
Frankly, it left you with the feeling that 15 MLB seasons of swinging with incredible violence had finally caught up to the 35-year-old, and he would be a shell of himself when he returned.
Granted, Stanton didn't make his 2025 debut until mid-June, but since coming back, he's looked very much like the guy who went on a tear last postseason and won the ALCS MVP.
He is hitting .306 with 14 home runs, 38 RBI and a 1.005 OPS. It's not ideal that Aaron Judge's elbow has forced Stanton to return to right field, but his bat has always been his meal ticket and continues to be a scary one.
Looking ahead, Stanton is owed $34 million over the next two seasons, with a $15 million club option for 2028. It's unlikely that club option will be picked up, but he will have two more years to get to 500 home runs, which would likely cement his Hall of Fame case.
Currently, he's the active MLB leader with 443 career home runs. Based on the way he's hit since coming back from the IL, there appears to be a real shot he gets to 500 before his career concludes.
Rangers Would Be World Series Contenders
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Two years after winning the World Series, Bruce Bochy's Rangers looked as good a bet as any coming into the season to emerge as the dominant team in the wide-open American League.
But while they aren't mathematically eliminated from the postseason, they are multiple games under .500 in mid-August in a frustrating campaign.
What's wild is that the veteran starting pitching trio of Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle—a talented trio with durability questions—has largely come up roses. But what looked like one of baseball's best lineups coming into the year is just ninth in the junior circuit in runs scored.
- Joc Pederson—in the first season of a two-year, $37 million contract—has hit .148 with just four home runs in 66 games this season.
- While Adolis García was having a tremendous defensive season before landing on the injured list with a left ankle sprain, he had just a .655 OPS.
- Marcus Semien continues to provide value as a defender, but he's hit .228 with a .668 OPS.
This is a veteran team, one that should be really good. That they aren't is perplexing, and it sets up something of a crossroads for general manager Chris Young this offseason.
Diamondbacks Would Be World Series Contenders
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Two years after losing to the Rangers in the World Series, the Diamondbacks appeared poised to make another run towards the Fall Classic in 2025.
But offseason signee Corbin Burnes had season-ending Tommy John surgery in June. A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez—the two projected top relievers in the bullpen—also were lost to Tommy John. And that says nothing of Jordan Montgomery, who had the procedure before the regular season even began, preventing him from trying for a bounce-back season.
Add in that Zac Gallen has had an ineffective contract year, and it's just turned into a miserable campaign for the D-backs. A record of 61-66 isn't the type to get anyone fired, but it's a massive disappointment for a club that was projected to win 90-plus games before the year.
Even more frustrating for the Snakes is that things don't necessarily project to turn around next year. They already traded away Eugenio Suárez, Shelby Miller and Merrill Kelly, three potential free agents.
Gallen can become a free agent also this offseason, and with so many arms recovering from Tommy John surgery or other ailments, the pitching in particular is in flux for Arizona in 2026.
