Which MLB Teams Are Crushing Their Preseason Win Total and Who is Way Behind?
On Monday night, the first preseason over/under of the 2025 Major League Baseball season cashed. With their 69th loss, the Atlanta Braves officially cannot reach the over on their 93.5 win total.
Before the end of the month, it's likely the Blue Jays, Brewers, Dodgers, Marlins and Orioles will all go final, too—some drastically exceeding expectations, others drastically not.
With roughly 22 percent of the season left to be played, let's check in on how every team is doing compared to what was expected.
We've broken up the teams into 10 sections, with both an AL version and an NL version of: Crushing It (on pace to exceed win total by 10-plus wins), Ahead of Schedule (on pace to exceed win total by 3.0-9.9 wins), Vegas Knew (pacing within three wins in either direction), Behind Schedule (on pace to miss win total by 3.0-9.9 wins) and Whoopsie Daisy (on pace to miss win total by 10-plus wins).
For the ones on track to hit their over, we'll identify the pleasant surprises most responsible for their success. For the less successful teams, we'll point out where things have gone awry. And for the teams seemingly headed for a photo finish, we'll offer a prediction on whether they'll reach that win total.
*All stats and records current through the start of play on Wednesday, unless otherwise noted.
Crushing It (American League)
1 of 10
Detroit Tigers (83.5)
Current record and trajectory: 75-53, on track for 94.9 wins
Though Detroit has faded since its peak just before the All-Star break—59-34 through July 8; 15-19 since—it sure did feel like this one cashed six weeks ago, when the Tigers were on pace for 103 wins.
Two of their big surprises have been guys who were never supposed to be surprise successes.
Spencer Torkelson was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft, and the Tigers invested $140 million in Javier Báez about 18 months later. But at this time one year ago, the former was just returning from 10 weeks in the minors, while the latter's season was about to end (hip surgery) with a horrific .516 OPS.
It was unclear whether either would even be on the roster this season, but they've both been key cogs in this offensive machine.
One other pleasant surprise has been utility man extraordinaire, Zach McKinstry. In 1,200 plate appearances over the previous four seasons, he was pretty much the definition of "replacement level," posting a .642 OPS and only getting regular ABs because of his ability to play anywhere. This year, though, he has a .768 OPS and was named an All-Star, arguably Detroit's most valuable player not named Tarik Skubal.
Toronto Blue Jays (78.5)
Current record and trajectory: 74-53, on track for 94.4 wins
In hindsight, the real surprise here is that so little was expected of Toronto in the first place.
The Blue Jays did a ton of spending this winter, with a payroll that presently trails only the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Phillies—each of whom had a win total of at least 89.5. Throw in the reasonable expectation that Bo Bichette would bounce back from a brutal 2024 campaign, and it's kind of outrageous that this was "supposed" to be a sub-.500 team.
But while we should have expected more from this club, who could have seen Eric Lauer and Addison Barger coming?
Lauer had a 6.56 ERA in Milwaukee in 2023, a 5.26 ERA in Triple-A and a 4.93 ERA in Korea in 2024 before finding his way back to the majors with Toronto, where he has logged 88.0 innings with a 2.76 ERA. He might be headed for a long-relief role with Shane Bieber's season debut on the horizon, but he should remain a key piece of this staff.
Meanwhile, Barger barely had a .600 OPS in 69 games played last season, but he was leading the Blue Jays in slugging for a good chunk of the year, bouncing back and forth between third base and right field with aplomb and an .804 OPS.
Crushing It (National League)
2 of 10
Miami Marlins (63.5)
Current record and trajectory: 59-67, on track for 75.9 wins
Along with the White Sox (53.5) and Rockies (58.5), the Marlins were one of just three teams expected to win 71 or fewer games this season. And for a good while, they lived down to the hype, starting out 30-45 (64.8 trajectory), including the ultimate low point of getting swept at home by Colorado.
Since June 21, though, Miami has been one of the better teams in baseball, going 29-21 with a surprising amount of offensive potency.
Kyle Stowers has been the unexpected star of the show. In 117 games played over the previous three seasons, he had a .600 OPS with six home runs and a bWAR of minus-1.0. But through his first 117 games of this season before recently landing on the IL, he was sitting at .912, 25 and 3.6, respectively, and blossoming into an All-Star.
The middle infield tandem of Xavier Edwards and Otto López has also done some heavy lifting. Nowhere near as much in the OPS department as Stowers, but Edwards is batting north of .300 while López has 11 home runs to go along with quality defense.
Milwaukee Brewers (83.5)
Current record and trajectory: 79-47, on track for 101.6 wins
After losing both Willy Adames and Devin Williams this winter, the expectation was this would be the year when the low-budget Brewers finally ran out of gas and their annual tradition of hemorrhaging multiple key players and not signing much of anything in their place had to catch up with them eventually.
So, yeah, about that...
The Brewers are better than ever before, with an apparent Midas Touch on their side.
Quinn Priester had a 6.23 ERA in nearly 100 career innings pitched when Boston let the Brewers acquire him for next to nothing in early April. He proceeded to post a 3.15 ERA in his first 114.1 innings with the Brew Crew, and he is now on a ludicrous streak of 14 consecutive starts in which Milwaukee got the win.
And then there's Andrew Vaughn, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 draft who the White Sox were more than happy to trade to Milwaukee for Aaron Civale in mid-June. At that point, Vaughn was maybe the least valuable player in all of baseball with a minus-1.7 bWAR and a .531 OPS. He immediately turned a corner, hitting a grand slam in his debut with Triple-A Nashville and posting a staggering .989 OPS since his promotion to the Brewers in early July.
A dozen Brewers pitchers have logged at least 37 innings pitched, every single one of them with an ERA of 3.52 or better. And the only problematic OPS among the 10 regulars in the lineup—Joey Ortiz at .615—hasn't actually been a problem since the beginning of June (.486 before; .726 since).
One can only assume the sole reason the Brewers haven't become the betting favorite to win the World Series is because they've never won one before.
Ahead of Schedule (American League)
3 of 10
Chicago White Sox (53.5)
Current record and trajectory: 45-81, on track for 57.9 wins
It's pertinent to note here that "ahead of schedule" and "a season to remember" are not necessarily synonymous phrases. The White Sox are still the worst team in the American League by a substantial margin, well on their way to the best odds of getting the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft. But they haven't been quite as awful as anticipated after their historically dismal 2024 campaign.
They owe a lot of that "success" to Adrian Houser, who made 11 starts (nine of them quality starts) with the White Sox before getting traded to Tampa Bay. Chicago went 8-3 (.727 winning percentage) in his turns through the rotation, compared to 37-78 (.322 winning percentage) in all other games this season.
Los Angeles Angels (71.5)
Current record and trajectory: 60-66, on track for 77.1 wins
See: White Sox, Chicago. The Angels are likely still headed for what would be their 10th consecutive losing season, but things haven't been anywhere near as dire as last year's 99-loss mess.
The big surprise here isn't any individual breakout star, but rather the fact that it only took the Halos 117 games to eclipse their home run total from last season (165). Mike Trout's body holding up well enough to appear in more than 75 percent of Angels games has been a big help there, but both Taylor Ward and Jo Adell have already soared well past their tater totals from last season.
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Ahead of Schedule (National League)
4 of 10
Chicago Cubs (85.5)
Current record and trajectory: 72-54, on track for 92.6 wins
Though the Brewers have blown right past the Cubs to open up a likely insurmountable lead in the NL Central, Chicago still has the second-best run differential in the majors, seventh in runs scored and sixth in runs allowed.
On the offensive side of things, Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the biggest star, but the biggest surprise has been the potency at catcher. They got a whole lot of nothing out of that position last year, ranking 29th in fWAR. This season? Third-best WAR, with Carson Kelly, Reese McGuire and Miguel Amaya all slugging north of .450.
On the mound, Matthew Boyd's combination of health and dominance was wholly unexpected, but how about Cade Horton's fast track to borderline ace status? Can't be too surprised that the No. 7 overall pick in the 2022 draft is pitching well, but a 1.27 ERA in eight starts since the beginning of July is kind of ludicrous. Here's hoping the blister that cut short his most recent start is a brief setback.
Cincinnati Reds (78.5)
Current record and trajectory: 67-60, on track for 85.5 wins
The Reds just keep hanging around in the wild-card conversation, largely propelled by what has become one of the best starting rotations in baseball.
Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo have each spent at least some time on the IL, but they've made 58 starts with a combined ERA of 2.66. And they've got more reinforcements in the wings in the form of top prospects Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty.
It might not be this season they make it back to the postseason, but the prospect of having that entire nucleus together for at least two more years is tantalizing. They just need to find another bat or two to help Elly De La Cruz shoulder the load.
San Diego Padres (85.5)
Current record and trajectory: 70-56, on track for 90.0 wins
For the most part, it has been business as expected for the Padres. If anything, the individual surprises have been more negative than positive, such as Dylan Cease sputtering through his walk year with a 4.61 ERA and Jackson Merrill not hitting nearly as well as he did as first runner-up for 2024 NL Rookie of the Year.
But what a revelation Nick Pivetta has been with a 2.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, leading the National League at 6.2 hits allowed per nine innings pitched. He never once had a sub-4.00 ERA or sub-1.10 WHIP in his previous eight seasons in the majors, always more of a No. 4 starter than an arm you definitely want on your postseason roster. Assuming the Padres make it to October, though, he almost has to be their Game 1 starter.
St. Louis Cardinals (76.5)
Current record and trajectory: 63-64, on track for 80.4 wins
An unexpected contender through the first half of the season, the Cardinals have been one of the most hapless teams in the majors dating back to that June 30-July 2 series in which they lost three straight shutouts in Pittsburgh. Overall, they've gone 16-26 over the past seven-plus weeks, averaging 3.5 runs.
Nevertheless, the full-season trajectory still looks good for the over here.
As with the Angels, it hasn't been any particular player surprisingly stoking the flames in St. Louis. Although, Victor Scott II becoming the every day center fielder while Matthew Liberatore has become a regular in the rotation are both big wins for the Cardinals' long-term plans. Both the 24-year-old hitter and 25-year-old pitcher entered this season with a career bWAR of minus-0.5, but it looks like they might be pillars of this rebuild.
Vegas Knew (American League)
5 of 10
Athletics (71.5)
Current record and trajectory: 57-70, on track for 72.7 wins
If you take out the month of May in which the A's pitching staff got tattooed for 56 home runs and a 6.88 ERA while going 7-21, this has quietly been a respectable .500 ball club. In fact, dating back to June 5, they've gone 34-30. And if they play .500 baseball the rest of the way, they would end up at 75-87. Might be tough with what is one of the most difficult remaining schedules, but they also pulled off a four-game sweep in Houston not that long ago. It's hard to not like their chances. Prediction: 74 wins, over.
Boston Red Sox (86.5)
Current record and trajectory: 68-59, on track for 86.7 wins
Less than a week after jettisoning Rafael Devers to San Francisco, the Red Sox began a six-game losing skid that dropped them to 40-43. At that point, getting to 87 wins seemed impossible. But a 28-16 record since then has flipped the script to the point where it now feels like only a rash of injuries could keep them from hitting the over. Prediction: 90 wins, over.
Cleveland Guardians (82.5)
Current record and trajectory: 64-61, on track for 82.9 wins
In our "bold predictions for the second half" article, Cleveland rising from the ashes to reach the postseason was one of those prognostications. And since then, the Guardians have gone 18-12 to officially make things interesting. Here's the problem, though: That prediction was rooted in the belief they could go on even more of a tear than that through a "first month of the second half" schedule featuring just one series against a team with a winning record. What's left on their docket is considerably more difficult, and the Guardians might not have enough offense to post a winning record against it. Prediction: 81 wins, under.
Houston Astros (87.5)
Current record and trajectory: 69-57, on track for 88.7 wins
Though the Astros did lose Josh Hader for what might be the rest of the regular season, the health of this club is otherwise finally trending in the right direction. Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier both returned to the rotation earlier this month, with Luis Garcia, J.P. France and Lance McCullers Jr. all probably ready for their own comebacks within the next week or two. Biggest of all, Yordan Alvarez began his rehab assignment on Tuesday and should be back soon for a team that ought to be able to turn things back around after scuffling through the past seven weeks. Prediction: 89 wins, over.
Kansas City Royals (83.5)
Current record and trajectory: 65-61, on track for 83.6 wins
Despite shutting down Kris Bubic for the year in late July and despite Cole Ragans last pitching in early June, the Royals just keep chugging along with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, presently 26-15 in their last 41 games. It's a shame they went 0-6 this season against the Yankees, though. Turn that into a 2-4 record and they'd be half a game ahead of New York for the last wild-card spot right now. As is, the over feels plausible for a team that only particularly floundered in June. Prediction: 85 wins, over.
New York Yankees (89.5)
Current record and trajectory: 68-57, on track for 88.1 wins
The Yankees had the highest preseason win total among AL teams, and they have woefully underachieved from that perspective. But despite all that has been said about their downfall over the past two months, they're pretty much on track to hit that win total. Can Max Fried right the ship, though? He had a 1.92 ERA through his first 17 starts, in which New York went 13-4. Since the beginning of July, though, he has a 6.80 ERA with the Yankees losing five of those eight starts. At least Luis Gil is back and looking good, but that might not be enough to get to 90 wins. Prediction: 88 wins, under.
Seattle Mariners (84.5)
Current record and trajectory: 68-59, on track for 86.7 wins
Seattle was comfortably in the "Ahead of Schedule" tier until four consecutive losses to the Mets and Phillies chopped them back down to size. It still feels like they're going to reach 85 wins with room to spare, though, even with Eugenio Suárez thus far operating at nowhere near the same level (.543 OPS in 18 games) as he did with the Diamondbacks (.897 OPS in 106 games). If he wakes up again, Seattle probably wins the AL West. Prediction: 88 wins, over.
Vegas Knew (National League)
6 of 10
Philadelphia Phillies (91.5)
Current record and trajectory: 73-53, on track for 93.9 wins
Of the four teams that had a win total of 90 or greater, only the Phillies are actually on track to hit the over. But getting there became much more questionable over the weekend when news broke that NL Cy Young hopeful Zack Wheeler is out indefinitely with a (since surgically removed) blood clot in his pitching shoulder.
They did finally get Aaron Nola back from the IL on Sunday, but having his 6.92 ERA replace Wheeler's 2.71 in the rotation might be what causes them to fall just short here. Prediction: 91 wins, under.
San Francisco Giants (80.5)
Current record and trajectory: 61-65, on track for 78.4 wins
They brought in Willy Adames during the offseason. They acquired Rafael Devers in June. Both Jung Hoo Lee and Robbie Ray have been healthy after minimally contributing in 2024. And yet, it's the same old .500-ish Giants for a fourth consecutive year.
From August 29 onward, though, they'll have probably the easiest schedule in all of baseball. There are seven games against the Dodgers during that stretch, but also a three-game set at home against Baltimore and six each against the Rockies, Cardinals and Diamondbacks. They'll leverage that to hit the over in that season-ending series against Colorado. Prediction: 82 wins, over.
Behind Schedule (American League)
7 of 10
Minnesota Twins (84.5)
Current record and trajectory: 58-67, on track for 75.2 wins
A select few pieces have been excellent for the Twins, most notably Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton. Pablo López was also stellar before his shoulder injury in mid-June. And there were half a dozen guys (mostly relievers) who provided solid value before landing elsewhere as part of that deadline fire sale.
What wasn't excellent for the Twins, however, was Carlos Correa, who barely had a .700 OPS and barely a positive bWAR for Minnesota before getting traded back to Houston.
Correa providing so little value while taking home such a large percentage of their payroll was too much to overcome, especially with Royce Lewis underachieving to a similar degree, while every starting pitcher not named Ryan or López struggled on a regular basis.
The funny thing is they haven't been half bad since burning it all down, sitting at 7-10 with a minus-7 run differential thus far in August, even against a brutal schedule. Figured they would be more like 2-15 during that stretch. But there's still no chance they get to 85 wins at this point.
Tampa Bay Rays (81.5)
Current record and trajectory: 61-65, on track for 78.4 wins
Quite the tale of three seasons here. Tampa Bay started out 21-26 before going 25-9 through its next 34 games, but it has gone an MLB-worst 15-30 dating back to June 27.
Do the Rays have another big turn in them to get back to a winning record, or was that mid-May through late-June dominance just some fool's gold?
News from a week ago of Shane McClanahan undergoing yet another season-ending arm surgery kind of felt like the final blow to any dreams of a winning record, while also leading us to wonder if we'll ever see the two-time All-Star pitch again.
Aside from that former ace's continued absence, the big letdown here has been Ha-Seong Kim, whose "probably won't be back in time for Opening Day" shoulder surgery recovery window turned into missing the first 87 games and posting a .612 OPS in his 24 games played since.
Texas Rangers (85.5)
Current record and trajectory: 62-65, on track for 79.1 wins
As far as Pythagorean record (hypothetical record of 69-58 based on runs scored/allowed) is concerned, Texas has been better than expected. And barely two weeks ago, the Rangers were five games above .500 and almost perfectly on track to have their over/under decided on the final day of the regular season.
However, their refusal to legitimately address the bullpen and lack of a closer has undermined their entire season.
The Rangers have blown a total of 24 saves on the year, second only to the Los Angeles Angels. And in games in which Texas blew at least one save chance, it's gone 7-16. It's also 17-25 in games decided by one run.
That's how you turn a plus-46 run differential into a losing record and a squandered season. The Rangers are not drawing dead yet, but it is definitely not looking good at six games back. And it will be a shame if neither Nathan Eovaldi nor Jacob deGrom gets to pitch this October after the remarkable seasons they've had.
Behind Schedule (National League)
8 of 10
Arizona Diamondbacks (86.5)
Current record and trajectory: 61-66, on track for 77.8 wins
The biggest disappointments of this season are definitely Atlanta and Baltimore, but Arizona is a solid bronze medalist on that podium, turning what were World Series aspirations into an "All Rentals Must Go" fire sale ahead of the trade deadline.
As was the case last season, the Diamondbacks have more than held their own on offense, but they have been mostly disastrous on the mound. Eduardo Rodríguez has been an expensive letdown once again, but it's Zac Gallen's 5.28 ERA that has been the unexpected hurdle they couldn't clear, after he had a 3.29 ERA through his first six seasons in the bigs.
New York Mets (90.5)
Current record and trajectory: 67-58, on track for 86.8 wins
For now, the Mets remain in playoff position, one game clear of the Cincinnati Reds in what is shaping up to be a two-horse race for the final wild-card spot. But it has been quite the fall from grace in Queens, with New York going 22-34 since waking up on June 13 with the best record (45-24) in the majors.
Pete Alonso had a .982 OPS through those first 69 games, compared to .714 since. But the much bigger problem has been the pitching. The Mets had a teamwide ERA of 2.83 through June 12, but all seven pitchers who have made at least three starts since then have done so with an ERA north of 4.00. If that doesn't change, even Alonso bouncing back down the stretch probably wouldn't be enough to save their season.
Washington Nationals (72.5)
Current record and trajectory: 50-75, on track for 64.8 wins
Both James Wood and MacKenzie Gore were named All-Stars, and CJ Abrams would have been worthy of consideration at just about any position other than the star-studded NL shortstop logjam.
Beyond that trio, though, there's not much worth getting excited about for a team headed for a sixth consecutive season with a winning percentage below .440. Maybe Cade Cavalli will continue to pitch well and Dylan Crews will start to look like a star down the stretch. But "Behind Schedule" has been the constant state of the Nationals since just about immediately after winning that World Series in 2019.
Whoopsie Daisy (American League)
9 of 10
Baltimore Orioles (87.5)
Current record and trajectory: 59-67, on track for 75.9 wins
There's only one American League team in this "on pace for at least 10 more losses than expected" tier, and it's an Orioles team that hasn't actually played poorly at all since burying itself in an insurmountable hole.
Since that nightmarish 16-34 start (162-game pace of 51.8 wins), Baltimore has gone 43-33 (162-game pace of 91.7 wins).
Trevor Rogers has been maybe the best pitcher in all of baseball over the past two months, with Dean Kremer not terribly far behind him. Combine that with Charlie Morton transforming from the poster boy of their early failures into a pitcher actually worth trading for and, well, we always did assume the starting rotation—with no Corbin Burnes and with a bunch of guys recovering from Tommy John surgery—was going to either make or break this team's season.
At this point, though, Baltimore would practically need to win out in order to get to 88 wins, which was never going to be feasible even before it traded away more than one-third of its 26-man roster.
Whoopsie Daisy (National League)
10 of 10
Atlanta Braves (93.5)
Current record and trajectory: 57-69, on track for 73.3 wins
The injury gods did Atlanta no favors this season. Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder leading the team in innings pitched was never part of the blueprint here, nor was Ronald Acuña Jr. missing more games than he has played.
But the Braves have also had a lot of healthy disappointments, namely Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Raisel Iglesias and (through the first half of the season) Michael Harris II.
They also just kind of did nothing all winter, even knowing that both Acuña and Spencer Strider weren't going to be ready for Opening Day, and even knowing the extensive injury history of both Chris Sale and Reynaldo López. And the lone big move they did make was an epic fail, with Jurickson Profar making it four games into the season before getting suspended for PEDs.
The cherry on the sad sundae was non-tendering both Ramón Laureano and Griffin Canning, who would have been huge for the Braves once they lost both Profar and López after less than a week.
Colorado Rockies (58.5)
Current record and trajectory: 36-90, on track for 45.7 wins
In a spurt of competence we didn't know this team had in it, the Rockies recently won six out of seven games, making a major leap in their quest to not suffer 121 or more losses.
Of course, we are still talking about a team that lost 50 of its first 59 games, one that entered that seven-game stretch having lost its previous eight games by a combined score of 82-25 and one that has just about the toughest remaining schedule in the majors. Can't exactly assume they won't go 5-31 or worse the rest of the way.
What we can safely assume, though, is that going 23-13—what it would take to hit the over—isn't going to happen.
Los Angeles Dodgers (103.5)
Current record and trajectory: 72-54, on track for 92.6 wins
There have been several stretches this season when the Dodgers have looked every bit the part of the juggernaut we thought they would be: the 8-0 start, the MLB-best record into mid-May and the surge of 16 wins in 19 games from mid-June into early July. At the end of that run, they were on pace for 103 wins.
Since July 4, though, they haven't even been good, swept four times (twice by Milwaukee), losers in 21 out of 33 games before finally waking up for a crucial sweep of San Diego this past weekend.
Like Atlanta, the injury bug has been quite the scapegoat here. However, that rings hollow as an excuse for a team that stockpiled a ridiculous number of both starters and relievers in an attempt to make itself more immune to bumps, bruises and tears.
Now that the Dodgers do have a full rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan, there's once again a feeling they will inevitably find their way to a first-round bye. But eclipsing this win total is no longer realistically in the cards.
Pittsburgh Pirates (77.5)
Current record and trajectory: 53-74, on track for 67.6 wins
Pittsburgh's pitching staff anchored by Paul Skenes has been solid on the whole. The Pirates are barely behind the 75-win Tigers for total runs allowed, slightly ahead of the 72-win Dodgers.
As of Tuesday morning, though, the Pirates did not have a single player with an OPS+ north of the MLB average of 100, ranking dead-last in runs scored by a sizable margin. Both Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz have been much less potent than in previous years, while last year's breakout catcher, Joey Bart, has regressed to the replacement-level player he used to be.
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