10 Players to Target or Avoid at Current ADP in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts

Value is king in fantasy football. It’s how leagues are won. It sounds trite, and it gets said all the times ever each year, but it’s true. Build a roster of players who outperform their asking price, and playoffs here we come. Draft a squad of guys who fail to meet expectations, and by November you might as well take up macrame.

Of course, in order to know which players to target, fantasy drafters need to know about when players are being taken. That’s where average draft position comes in.

ADP admittedly isn’t an exact science. No two drafts are the same—a player could go in Round 3 in one league and then in Round 5 in another. But it offers at least something of a benchmark—some idea of when managers can expect a player to be selected.

Then it’s just a matter of finding underpriced players to target, and overvalued players to avoid.

That felt like a segue.

TARGET: QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

ADP: QB16, 117th Overall

The 2024 season wasn’t an especially memorable one for New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye—playing for a well and truly dreadful Patriots team that was bereft of passing-game weapons and had five matadors playing on the offensive line, Maye threw for just 2,276 passing yards and 15 touchdowns. He was picked off 10 times and sacked 34 times while winning just three times.

Excited yet?

However, there is more than one reason to believe that 2025 could be different—a lot different.

For starters, Maye may actually have more than .0004 seconds to get rid of the ball this year. The Patriots revamped the offensive line, including a pair of new starters at tackle in veteran Morgan Moses and rookie first-rounder Will Campbell.

There are also several new weapons for Maye to utilize. A proven veteran wideout in Stefon Diggs who in 2023 reeled in 107 catches and tallied almost 1,200 receiving yards. A lanky, athletic boundary target in rookie Kyle Williams. An explosive pass-catcher out of the backfield in running back TreVeyon Henderson.

Add in Maye’s sneaky rushing upside (he was ninth among quarterbacks with 421 yards on the ground last season), and he’s an attractive target for fantasy managers in no hurry to select a starting quarterback on draft day.

AVOID: QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/Steven Senne

ADP: QB1, 23rd Overall

To be clear, avoiding Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen in drafts has less to do with Allen and more to do with being the first team to draft a quarterback in fantasy leagues.

It’s just not a good idea.

Using a second-round pick on a quarterback means leaving a sizable hole in the roster at running back or wide receiver. And the “edge” gained by having that elite quarterback won’t be enough to fill it. The difference in fantasy points per game from the No. 1 signal-caller to the No. 12 one (the “best” to “worst” weekly starter) is less than the gap from the top RB to No. 24. Or the best WR to No. 36.

And that assumes that Allen will finish the season in the spot he’s being drafted in—which the top-drafted quarterback never does.

Seriously. It doesn’t happen. Didn’t last year, when Allen had the same ADP and finished fourth in points at the position.

Last year, Allen was 14th in the NFL with 3,731 passing yards and seventh in the league with 28 touchdown passes. His wide receivers aren’t exactly The Greatest Show on Turf.

Betting your season on ridiculous rushing numbers from Allen is asking to get burned.

TARGET: RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

ADP: RB11, 24th Overall

For fantasy managers in possession of the first overall pick who elect to take Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, teammate Chase Brown is a dream target at the back half of Round 2. He has fallen early into Round 3 with some regularity as well—which is all the better.

For the season last year, Brown amassed 1,350 total yards, averaged 4.3 yards per carry, caught 54 passes and found the end zone 11 times—numbers that ranked him 10th in PPR points among running backs.

But when you look at the numbers once Brown became Cincy’s lead back, things get even juicier.

From Week 9 on, there was just one week where Brown didn’t either surpass 100 total yards or hit 90 yards and score a touchdown—a 24-touch, 91-yard effort against the Denver Broncos in Week 17. Brown had double-digit PPR points in every contest from Week 8 on. Over that span, he was sixth in PPR points among running backs.

That was better than Derrick Henry of the Ravens. Just saying.

Brown is the unquestioned lead back for one of the league’s top offenses. There’s legitimate top-five upside present.

An elite wideout paired with Brown is one hell of a start to a draft.

AVOID: RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Daniel Kucin Jr.

ADP: RB2, 3rd Overall

Now I know how Chicken Little felt—only this time the sky is falling.

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is being drafted for what he did in 2024--not what he’s going to do in 2025. Because what he’s going to do this year is kill teams dead.

There’s just too much working against him. Over the past 10 years, there have been 10 running backs who have tallied over 370 touches in the regular season. Only one of those backs (Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys in 2018) saw a drop in fantasy production of less than 20 percent. Not one matched their numbers from the year before. The average decrease in fantasy production for 370-touch backs the past 10 years is over 49 percent.

Take away 49 percent of Barkley's 2024 numbers, and he goes from RB2 overall to RB28.

Then there’s the “2K Club,” which Barkley joined in 2024.

Six of the eight running backs who have gained 2,000 rushing yards in a season went on to miss time the following year. No back has ever followed up a 2,000-yard season with even a 1,500-yard one--just one 2,000-yard back (Barry Sanders in 1998) saw his rushing yards fall by less than 30 percent the next season. Three of eight fell off by at least 50 percent. The average drop-off in rushing production from a running back following a 2,000-yard season is a whopping 966 yards--over 47 percent.

If Barkley’s numbers fall by a third, it will be a below-average decline.

And he’ll be a so-so RB2.

TARGET: RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

ADP: RB17, 44th Overall

I have been playing and/or writing about fantasy football for over 20 years, and each and every year there are players whose ADP makes my head hurt.

This season, New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara is the captain of Team Excedrin.

Yes, New Orleans is going to be a steaming pile of a team in 2025 with stinky poo play at quarterback. But, um, did y’all watch the 2024 Saints? Last season, Kamara set career highs in carries (228) and rushing yards (950), flirted with 1,500 total yards, caught 68 passes and was ninth in PPR points and fifth in fantasy points per game among running backs.

Kamara just turned 30, but he showed no signs of slowing down a year ago. He’s going to be a focal point of the New Orleans offense. There’s no one else on the depth chart at running back for the Saints who is a serious threat to take a chunk of Kamara’s workload.

What exactly is the problem?

Care to guess how many times over the course of his career that Kamara has finished RB17 or lower in PPR points?

Never times. That’s how many.

Kamara is going to win people leagues this year. Book it.

AVOID: WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn

ADP: WR6, 10th Overall

It’s not especially hard to see why Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is popular with fantasy managers.

As a rookie two years ago, Nacua was a league-winning revelation—a late-round dart-throw or waiver wire pick-up who wound up breaking the rookie records for both receptions and receiving yards—the latter of which had stood since 1960. Nacua finished his first season fourth in PPR points among wide receivers.

Last year, injuries cost Nacua six games and his touchdown numbers were cut in half, but he was still fourth in PPR points per game at his position.

With that said, there are multiple red flags with Nacua entering Year 3—and they don’t have anything to do with Nacua himself.

The biggest is the ouchie back of Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. Stafford is set to test said back Saturday, but given that he spent part of this week being worked on in an Airstream by Tor Eckman, the situation appears, um, ungood.

Almost as bad as the idea of Nacua catching wormburners from Jimmy “Rico Suave” Garoppolo (if only he threw as good as he looks).

Add in the arrival of Davante Adams (who has at least 130 targets in six of the last seven seasons) and expecting another top-five season from Nacua reeks of wishful thinking.

TARGET: WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

ADP: WR22, 48th Overall

Last year, Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton had arguably the best season of his professional career. Playing in his first season with Bo Nix under center, Sutton set career-highs in targets (135) and receptions (81) while eclipsing 1,000 yards and scoring eight touchdowns. For the season, Sutton was 15th in PPR points among wide receivers.

Perhaps even more importantly, once Nix started to get the hang of the whole being an NFL quarterback thing, Sutton’s production got even better. From Week 8 on, Sutton hit double-digit PPR points in every game and was 11th in points among wide receivers.

However, in spite of that production, Sutton is only coming off draft boards as a low-end fantasy WR2. Yes, the Broncos brought in veteran tight end Evan Engram, but Sutton is far and away the team’s primary passing-game target and No. 1 wide receiver. If you believe that Nix is going to take a step forward in his second pro season, it stands to reason that Sutton will be one of the primary beneficiaries.

If you’re a “Robust RB” drafter that covets a pair of high-end ball-carriers (and what right-minded fantasy-manager doesn’t?), Sutton is a great WR2 target at the back end of Round 4.

AVOID: WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

ADP: WR12, 28th Overall

Tee Higgins would be the No. 1 wide receiver on quite a few NFL teams. In five NFL seasons, Higgins has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards twice and 900 receiving yards four times. Higgins missed five games last year but still posted a career-high 10 receiving touchdowns. In the offseason, the Cincinnati Bengals gave Higgins a nice bag of lettuce.

Salad can be very healthy, you know.

But Higgins isn’t playing on just any team. He’s in the Queen City. And that makes the 26-year-old Robin to Ja’Marr Chase’s Batman. That hasn’t dissuaded fantasy managers though—they are taking Higgins on average as a fantasy WR1.

Folks, unless Chase gets hurt that just ain’t gonna happen.

It hasn’t to date—at least not over a full season. Higgins was admittedly fifth in PPR points per game a year ago, but thanks to those five missed games he was WR17 for the year. That’s the best season-long finish of his career.

That isn’t the only time Higgins has missed games, either. As a matter of fact, he has missed five contests in each of the past two campaigns and at least three games in three of the past four years.

Higgins isn’t being drafted at his fantasy ceiling.

He’s being drafted in fantasy-land.

TARGET: TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

ADP: TE11, 107th Overall

There are three paths to take this year where drafting a tight end is concerned. There’s the “Big 3” of Brock Bowers of the Raiders, Trey McBride of the Cardinals and George Kittle of the 49ers. Tier 2 options like Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and Denver’s Evan Engram. And punting on the position until outside the top-100 picks.

If Door No. 3 sounds like a plan, then Tucker Kraft of the Green Bay Packers should be on your radar come draft day.

Kraft was a top-10 PPR option a year ago. He didn’t post big reception (50) or yardage (707) numbers, but his seven touchdown catches were tied for third-most among tight ends. He also made the most of the catches he did make—his 14.1 yards per reception trailed only Kittle at his position, and his 9.1 yards after the catch per reception led the league at tight end.

The Packers admittedly have a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game. But the coaching staff in Green Bay has talked up a bigger role for Kraft in 2025, and Green Bay is already dealing with injuries at wide receiver.

Kraft is being drafted much closer to his fantasy floor than his ceiling.

AVOID: TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

AP Photo/David Dermer

ADP: TE4, 52nd Overall

Two years ago, Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta took the league by storm. As a rookie. LaPorta caught 86 of 120 passes for 889 yards and 10 scores—numbers that netted him the top spot among fantasy tight ends.

LaPorta’s sophomore season wasn’t bad, really—he finished the year sixth at the position in PPR points. But LaPorta’s numbers dropped across the board, in part because he saw 37 fewer targets than the season before.

This year, fantasy drafters are splitting the difference, making LaPorta the first of those “Tier 2” tight ends to come off the board. None of the tight ends being taken in that range are sure bets, but if fantasy managers aren’t willing to pay up for an elite option, the smart play here is to let LaPorta pass on by.

The reason is simple enough—that drop in targets from 2023 to last year. With Amon-Ra St. Brown sure to be among the league’s most targeted wideouts, Jahmyr Gibbs coming out of the backfield and an ascending Jameson Williams, last year’s 5.2 targets per game sounds more realistic than the 7.1 he saw as a rookie. There’s also the possibility of a drop in touchdowns—17 over two years isn’t an easy pace to maintain.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.