B/R's MLB 20 for '20: Projecting Top 20 Center Fielders in 2020
Baseball is a tough sport to predict on a day-in, day-out basis, and it becomes exponentially more difficult to predict looking years into the future. But that's exactly what we're to doing.
The following is the sixth installment in a series we've dubbed, "B/R's MLB 20 for '20." In this series, we'll attempt to project the top 20 players at each position five years down the road.
We've done catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops and third basemen so far, so now we'll move on to the center fielders. Players are graded according to a 100-point scale:
- Offense (55 points): Center field is a premium position, and finding a player who can handle the spot defensively and produce offensively is tough. While defense factored in as a bit more important than at other positions, offense still carried the most weight at 55 points. Contact rate, batting average, approach, on-base skills and overall power were all taken into account.
- Defense/Speed (40 points): Defense was the big reason we opted to separate center fielders from corner outfielders, as glove work carried the same weight as it did at catcher and the middle-infield positions, with range and arm being the biggest areas of focus. Speed on the bases was also factored heavily into this section.
- Upside Factor (5 points): On a scale from 1 to 5, players were given a bonus based on their upside moving forward. A three-point bonus indicated that a player is expected to be at essentially the same level five years from now, while more or less than that indicated expected progression or regression.
- Tiebreakers: On more than one occasion, players graded out with the same overall point total. In that case, the first tiebreaker was who had the higher upside factor. If that still didn't solve things, the second tiebreaker was overall offensive score.
All basic statistics and WAR numbers come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while advanced stats come from FanGraphs. Stats are current through July 19.
Hopefully that paints a clear picture of how players were graded and where some information originated. So with that out of the way, let's get things started.
Honorable Mentions and Notable Veteran Exclusions
1 of 21
Next Five
- David Dahl, COL
- Adam Eaton, CWS
- Travis Jankowski, SD
- Kevin Kiermaier, TB
- Marcell Ozuna, MIA
Excluded Due to Age and Expected Regression
- Charlie Blackmon, COL
- Michael Bourn, CLE
- Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY
- Dexter Fowler, CHC
- Denard Span, WAS
20. Roman Quinn, Philadelphia Phillies
2 of 21
2020 Age: 27
2020 Offensive Outlook
Roman Quinn has dealt with some injuries and a position change since Philadelphia took him in the second round of the 2011 draft, but he's finally turning his elite athleticism into on-field results.
Making the jump to Double-A this season, he's hitting .306/.356/.435 with 16 extra-base hits in 232 at-bats.
He has more pop in his bat than his undersized 5'10", 170-pound frame would suggest, but the switch-hitter's best attributes will always be his speed and contact skills.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Quinn began his pro career as a shortstop, but he piled up 62 errors in 132 games before making the move to center field. His plus-plus speed and good arm strength play well there, and he has the potential to be an above-average defender.
He's stolen at least 30 bases in each of the past three seasons and already has 29 thefts in 58 games so far this year. He'll continue to be a serious threat on the bases at the highest level.
2020 Upside Factor
The 22-year-old Quinn is really coming into his own this season, and he could join J.P. Crawford and Maikel Franco as centerpieces of a rebuilding Philadelphia Phillies offense.
2020 Overall Projection
Odubel Herrera has been a pleasant surprise as the Phillies' primary center fielder after the franchise grabbed him in the Rule 5 draft in December, but Quinn still profiles as the long-term option in center.
19. Brett Phillips, Houston Astros
3 of 212020 Age: 26
2020 Offensive Outlook
A sixth-round pick in 2012, Brett Phillips enjoyed a breakout season last year when he hit .310/.375/.529 with 29 doubles, 14 triples and 17 home runs between Single-A and High-A.
That vaulted him from being the team's No. 30 prospect heading into 2014 to No. 6 this season, according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook.
He's been even better in 2015, hitting .317/.376/.549 with 23 doubles, 10 triples and 15 home runs in 379 at-bats while reaching Double-A. No single tool jumps off the page, but the production is impossible to ignore—and he does everything well.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Phillips has the arm to play right field, but his speed could keep him in center long term, and that's where he's played to this point in his pro career.
He was just 23-of-37 on stolen-base attempts last season, and he's gone 14-of-22 so far this year. So while he has the speed to be a threat on the bases, his base-stealing skills still need work.
2020 Upside Factor
The 21-year-old Phillips has proved his breakout 2014 performance was no fluke, and he's holding his own at the Double-A level. At this point, all signs point to his being a solid everyday outfielder.
2020 Overall Projection
The outfield situation is crowded in Houston right now, but if Phillips continues to hit like he has, the team will have no choice but to open up an everyday spot for him in the not-too-distant future.
18. Wil Myers, San Diego Padres
4 of 21
2020 Age: 29
2020 Offensive Outlook
The Kansas City Royals traded Wil Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays in 2012 after he won Minor League Player of the Year honors. He went on to post an .831 OPS with 13 home runs and 53 RBI in 2013, winning American League Rookie of the Year honors.
Injuries limited him to just 87 games last season, and he struggled when he was on the field. His OPS dropped to .614, and he hit just six home runs. Tampa then shipped him to the San Diego Padres this past winter.
Myers has landed somewhere in the middle of those two seasons so far this year, with a .277/.327/.459 line, but he has again missed time because of a wrist injury. If he can settle in and stay healthy, the plus-plus power potential and good on-base skills are still there.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Kansas City originally drafted Myers as a catcher, before the organization moved him to the outfield to get his bat on the fast track to the majors. He shifted to center field after joining the Padres but really has no business playing there. The metrics back that up, with minus-nine defensive runs saved (DRS) and a minus-55.8 ultimate zone rating per 150 games (UZR/150).
His arm and athleticism may profile better at a corner spot, but he should be able to improve enough to be at least an average defender in center if he stays there. He has 14 stolen bases on 19 attempts for his career.
2020 Upside Factor
Myers is still just 24 years old, so there is no reason to think he can't return to his 2013 level of production. That's probably his ceiling, though, and he'll need to find a way to avoid injury moving forward.
2020 Overall Projection
The Padres picked up a long-term piece when they acquired Myers, as he's under team control through the 2019 season. While a number of their bats were quick-fix additions, he figures to be around for the foreseeable future.
17. Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
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2020 Age: 27
2020 Offensive Outlook
Despite the fact that his Wyoming high school didn't have a baseball team, Brandon Nimmo managed to play his way into being taken No. 13 overall in the 2011 draft with a strong performance on the showcase circuit.
He has a terrific approach at the plate, posting a 13.9 percent walk rate for his career en route to a .381 on-base percentage. With a big 6'3", 205-pound frame, he has plenty of raw power, and it should start to show up more in games going forward.
Nimmo is hitting .285/.351/.372 with 15 extra-base hits this season, reaching Double-A, and it may not be long before he's patrolling center field for the New York Mets.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
His defense has improved since his pro career began, and while he's not a burner from a speed standpoint, he has all the tools to be a solid defender in center field.
Nimmo has double-digit stolen bases in each of the past two seasons, and while he won't be much of a base-stealing threat in the majors, he has the plus instincts to be a good baserunner.
2020 Upside Factor
Nimmo was something of a project when the Mets first drafted him, but he has progressed nicely to this point. All signs point to the 22-year-old being a solid everyday player, and he has plenty of room to grow.
2020 Overall Projection
Juan Lagares is one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, but to this point, he has not hit well enough to justify being an everyday player, with a career .259/.295/.357 line. Once Nimmo is ready, he shouldn't have much trouble overtaking Lagares as the everyday center fielder.
16. Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers
6 of 21
2020 Age: 34
2020 Offensive Outlook
A late bloomer who has dealt with some injuries during his time in the majors, Carlos Gomez really came into his own during the 2013 season.
In his age-27 campaign, Gomez hit .284/.338/.506 with 27 doubles, 10 triples and 24 home runs to finally deliver on what had long been untapped potential.
Injuries have limited him to just 65 games this season, but Gomez remains one of the dangerous power-speed threats in baseball when he's healthy and producing.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Before he started hitting at an All-Star level, defense was the reason Gomez saw his name penciled into the lineup, and he was an absolute beast defensively in 2013 (38 DRS, 27.2 UZR/150). That season has proved to be an outlier, but he's still a plus defender who is capable of making the highlight-reel play.
On the bases, Gomez has racked up 211 career steals, including 81 since the start of the 2013 season. His speed figures to be down a tick or two in five years, but it should still be a useful tool.
2020 Upside Factor
The fact that Gomez has been banged up this season only adds to the assumption that he'll be on the decline five years from now. He'll still be capable of making an impact both offensively and defensively at the age of 34, though.
2020 Overall Projection
Gomez is a free agent after the 2016 season, and chances are that the Milwaukee Brewers won't make a serious run at re-signing him. In fact, he could become one of the more intriguing trade chips on the market this summer if the team decides to sell aggressively.
15. Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds
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2020 Age: 29
2020 Offensive Outlook
Billy Hamilton still has a lot of work to do if he's going to make the most of his game-changing speed, and questions remain as to whether he'll ever get on base enough to be a legitimate leadoff hitter.
He finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting last season thanks to his stolen-base total (56) and terrific defense. But he hit just .250/.292/.355, and that's slipped to a .217/.266/.281 so far this season.
Here's the big picture: He'll need to cut down his strikeout rate (17.7 percent) and learn to take a walk (5.8 percent). Better utilization of the bunt as a weapon wouldn't hurt, either, as he has just 25 career bunt hits.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Hamilton was originally a shortstop but made the move to center field in 2013, where his speed has made him a serious weapon. He had a 21.7 UZR/150 and 14 DRS last season and has flashed similar range this year.
The stolen-base prowess is the real story with Hamilton, though, dating back to his 155-steal performance in the minors in 2012. He had 56 steals last season but also led the league with 23 caught-stealings. He's improved his success rate dramatically so far in 2015, with 45 steals on 52 attempts.
2020 Upside Factor
If Hamilton can improve his triple-slash numbers to something like .270/.320/.400, he'd be a dynamic weapon for the Cincinnati Reds. At 24 years old, there's still time for him to take that leap forward.
2020 Overall Projection
The Reds have a ton of outfield talent in the minors in the likes of Jesse Winker, Phil Ervin, Yorman Rodriguez and Kyle Waldrop, so Hamilton is not without some competition. He'll get every chance to tap into his vast potential, though.
14. Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals
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2020 Age: 34
2020 Offensive Outlook
Shipped to the Kansas City Royals as part of the deal that sent Zack Greinke to the Brewers, the speedy Lorenzo Cain was one of the breakout stars of 2014 for the surprise Royals.
In his age-28 season, Cain hit .301/.339/.412 and really shined after the team moved him into the No. 3 spot in the lineup. He's been even better this year, improving that line to .321/.378/.513 and already setting a career high with 10 home runs.
His ceiling is probably 15-18 home runs, but he's developed into a solid run producer—and his speed is a big weapon.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Whether measured by metrics or the simple eye test, it's no secret that Cain is one of the best defensive outfielders in the league. Since the start of 2013, he has piled up 59 DRS, which trail only Lagares' 60 among all outfielders.
Cain stole a career-high 28 bases in 33 attempts last season, and he looks to be on his way to passing that mark this year with 18 in 21 attempts so far. With his high batting average, he could be a perennial 30-steal guy going forward.
2020 Upside Factor
Cain relies heavily on his speed on both sides of the ball, so once he loses a step, the decline could be a drastic one. At 34 years old, he'll likely be on the downswing, but as a late bloomer, he may hold up better than most guys his age.
2020 Overall Projection
Cain is under team control through the 2017 season, but he has quickly emerged as a fan favorite and a leader for the Royals. Don't be surprised if the club offers up an extension sometime in the near future.
13. Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
9 of 21
2020 Age: 34
2020 Offensive Outlook
Acquiring him from the Seattle Mariners along with starter Chris Tillman in exchange for Erik Bedard, the Baltimore Orioles wound up finding the face of their franchise in Adam Jones.
Since first becoming an everyday player in 2010, he's hit .284/.321/.476 while averaging 31 doubles, 28 home runs and 88 RBI per season.
He's never been much for coaxing a walk (4.4 percent career walk rate), but he's a consistent .280 hitter with 30-home run power and good speed on the bases. Those players, especially with plus defense in center field to boot, don't come around very often.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
A four-time Gold Glove winner, including in each of the past three years, Jones doesn't grade out overly well in terms of defensive metrics. But he does pass the eye test with terrific athleticism and highlight-reel catches.
His career high is 16 steals, back in 2012, and he's reached double digits five different times in his career. He may not be a huge stolen-base threat, but he's a great all-around baserunner.
2020 Upside Factor
At 29 years old, Jones is one of the most complete outfielders in baseball. He's managed to avoid serious injury throughout his career—so he could age better than most—but he'll still be on the way down five years from now.
2020 Overall Projection
The six-year, $85.5 million extension Jones signed runs through the 2018 season, at which point the team will need to decide whether to bring back the then-32-year-old for one final deal.
12. Dalton Pompey, Toronto Blue Jays
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2020 Age: 27
2020 Offensive Outlook
The Toronto Blue Jays took the Canadian-born Dalton Pompey in the 16th round of the 2010 draft, but he quickly emerged as one of the top outfield prospects in the league.
He broke out last season, hitting .317/.392/.469 with 40 extra-base hits in 441 minor league at-bats. He began the campaign at High-A Dunedin and finished it with a September call-up, and he broke camp as the team's starting center fielder this season.
Early struggles resulted in his being shipped back to the minors. But he appears to have gotten things back on track and still profiles as a future leadoff hitter and decent on-base threat with good speed.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Pompey brings top-flight athleticism both defensively and on the basepaths, where he should be an above-average defender and a dangerous base stealer.
He stole 43 bases on 50 attempts last season, and during his brief time in the majors, he's been good for three DRS and a 2.6 UZR/150.
2020 Upside Factor
Pompey struggled when handed the starting center field job at the beginning of the season, but it wasn't all that surprising, given how aggressively the team moved him last year. The impact potential is still there for the 22-year-old.
2020 Overall Projection
The trio of Kevin Pillar, Pompey and Jose Bautista figures to make up the Toronto Blue Jays outfield from left to right going forward, and with a strong performance since being sent back to the minors, Pompey should get another chance soon.
11. Austin Meadows, Pittsburgh Pirates
11 of 212020 Age: 25
2020 Offensive Outlook
The No. 9 pick in the 2013 draft, Austin Meadows has hit .308/.386/.455 in parts of three minor league seasons for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
He has good plate discipline (10.5 percent career walk rate) and should develop plenty of power with a strong 6'3", 200-pound frame.
He still has some work to do in the minors, but his smooth left-handed swing should produce both average and power once he does eventually reach the majors.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Meadows has terrific speed, especially for his size, and he's starting to turn that raw athleticism into performance on the bases, with 15 stolen bases so far this season.
His arm grades out as slightly below-average, but he has the range and instincts to play center field at the highest level.
2020 Upside Factor
Meadows was one of the top high school bats in the 2013 class, and while his power is still developing, the ceiling remains incredibly high for the 20-year-old.
2020 Overall Projection
The Pirates have a crowded outfield situation long term, with Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco all locked into spots as things currently stand. That should give Meadows plenty of time to develop, and if he reaches his ceiling, they'll find a place for him.
10. Manuel Margot, Boston Red Sox
12 of 212020 Age: 25
2020 Offensive Outlook
The best all-around athlete in a deep Boston Red Sox farm system, according to MLB.com's Prospect Watch, Manuel Margot has moved up quickly since signing back in 2011.
Quick hands and good bat speed should allow him to hit for a high average as he continues to make his way through the minors, and he's held his own since receiving an early-season promotion to Double-A.
Margot is somewhat undersized at 5'11", 170 pounds, but he's strong and should be able to reach double-digit home runs as a big leaguer.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
With plus speed, Margot has been a good base stealer throughout his time as a pro, swiping 120 bases on 160 attempts (75 percent success rate). So far this season, he has 27 steals on 35 attempts.
His speed is obviously an asset on defense, as he has some terrific range. His arm is about average but more than good enough to play in center field, where he should be able to stick long term.
2020 Upside Factor
The 20-year-old Margot continues to move quickly up the organizational ladder, and after opening the season as the No. 72 prospect, according to Baseball America, his stock his clearly on the rise.
2020 Overall Projection
The outfield situation is somewhat cloudy in Boston moving forward, especially in center field, where Mookie Betts looks to have locked down the position. But the team also has Rusney Castillo, Jackie Bradley Jr. and now Margot. He could wind up as one of the centerpieces of a trade for pitching at some point in the near future.
9. Michael Taylor, Washington Nationals
13 of 21
2020 Age: 29
2020 Offensive Outlook
Guys with a healthy mix of power and speed are hard to find, but that's exactly what Michael Taylor figures to bring to the Washington Nationals.
Injuries have thrust him into action at the big league level a year ahead of schedule, and so far, he's posted a .649 OPS with 10 doubles, six home runs and 32 RBI in 243 at-bats.
Those are passable numbers for a rookie, but he's capable of much more, as evidenced by his .304/.390/.526 line in the minors last season that included 20 doubles, 23 home runs and 81 runs scored. He has the tools to be a leadoff hitter but with legitimate 20-homer potential.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
At 6'3", 210 pounds, Taylor looks the part of a future power hitter. But athleticism and speed are also key parts of his game—and his base-stealing skills should carry over to the big leagues.
He's been fantastic defensively so far this season, despite bouncing between left field and center field, posting a 32.0 UZR/150 and five DRS while grading out well above average at both positions.
2020 Upside Factor
Taylor has proved this season that he's ready for the big leagues at this point, but he still has plenty of room before he reaches his ceiling as a legitimate 20-20 player and .300 threat with a plus glove.
2020 Overall Projection
The plan has always been for Taylor to replace Denard Span, who is set to hit free agency at the end of this season. Taylor's occupied a larger role than expected in 2015 but still figures to take over as the everyday guy in center next year.
8. Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians
14 of 21
2020 Age: 27
2020 Offensive Outlook
The younger brother of Royals pitching prospect Kyle Zimmer, outfielder Bradley Zimmer also played his college ball at the University of San Francisco, where he was one of the best college bats in the country.
He hit .302/.400/.492 with 12 doubles and six home runs over 179 at-bats in his pro debut last season, and he's already reached Double-A this year while hitting .315/.410/.507 with 19 doubles and 11 home runs in 302 at-bats.
With a smooth left-handed swing and a lanky 6'4" frame that should fill out as he continues to develop, there will be legitimate 20-plus-home run power down the line for Zimmer. He should also continue to be a .300 hitter, thanks to his advanced approach at the plate.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Zimmer has the arm to play right field, but his speed and instincts should allow him to stick in center field long term.
His speed has been especially dangerous on the basepaths, where he swiped 12 bases last season and already has 33 thefts on 38 chances through the first half of this season.
2020 Upside Factor
The Cleveland Indians look to have grabbed a good one in the 22-year-old Zimmer, as he has already come a long way in 130 professional games and has yet to reach his ceiling. With legitimate plus tools across the board, he could be a perennial All-Star.
2020 Overall Projection
Michael Bourn is under contract through the 2016 season with a vesting option for 2017, but with Zimmer already reaching Double-A, he could push the Indians to make a move to clear a path in the very near future.
7. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
15 of 21
2020 Age: 33
2020 Offensive Outlook
Andrew McCutchen is one of the faces of Major League Baseball right now and the leader of a Pirates team that has gone from an afterthought to a perennial contender.
After a dismal month of April saw him hit just .194/.302/.333, he has returned to MVP form with a .321/.420/.541 line since.
There are very few legitimate five-tool talents in the game today, but McCutchen is one of them, as there is nothing he doesn't excel at for the Pirates, especially on the offensive side of things.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
McCutchen has made some fantastic plays thanks to his speed and range in center field, but he has not graded out well from a metrics standpoint (minus-4.5 UZR/150, minus-23 DRS) over the years.
He topped out at 33 steals in 2010 and has been good for 148 in total over the course of his seven-year career, topping 20 every year except for 2014.
2020 Upside Factor
McCutchen relies heavily on speed as a part of his game on both sides of the ball, and it's reasonable to think that the 28-year-old will have lost a step five years down the road. That being said, even a slight drop-off in production would still see him as an All-Star-caliber player.
2020 Overall Projection
The extremely team-friendly six-year, $51.50 million deal McCutchen signed back in 2012 includes a $14.75 million club option for 2018, but the Pirates will likely look to tack a few years onto the end of that at some point.
6. A.J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks
16 of 21
2020 Age: 32
2020 Offensive Outlook
An All-Star for the first time this season, A.J. Pollock is a budding star for an Arizona Diamondbacks team that appears to be on the rise.
Pollock was in the middle of a breakout year in 2014 when a fractured hand cost him 79 games and derailed things, but he's picked up right where he left off this season with a .302/.352/.466 line that includes 20 doubles and 11 home runs.
He should be a perennial 20-20 threat moving forward, with plenty of doubles and an average hovering around .300, as he brings a good mix of speed and power to the D-backs lineup.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Pollock may not have elite-level speed, but he's a terrific defender in center field and a solid base stealer who has already set a new career high this season with 19 steals on 25 attempts.
Since the start of 2013, he's been good for 35 DRS and a 19.8 UZR/150, putting him among the game's elite defenders at the position.
2020 Upside Factor
What we've seen out of Pollock when he's been healthy during the past two seasons is probably the ceiling for the 27-year-old, but he should have plenty of prime years in the tank, stretching into the 2020 season and perhaps a few years beyond.
2020 Overall Projection
Pollock will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this coming offseason, and he looks like a prime candidate for a long-term extension as one of the cornerstones of the retooling Diamondbacks.
5. Clint Frazier, Cleveland Indians
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2020 Age: 25
2020 Offensive Outlook
The Cleveland Indians took Clint Frazier No. 5 overall in the 2013 draft, four spots ahead of fellow Georgia high school center fielder Austin Meadows, and he looks to be the better prospect at this point.
Frazier uses plus-plus bat speed to generate big-time power, which has started to show up in games, as he has 21 doubles and nine home runs in 336 at-bats for High-A Lynchburg so far this season.
He struck out 161 times last year for a 29.7 percent strikeout rate—so he definitely needs to work on making more consistent contact—but the tools are there for him to be a .280 hitter with 30-plus-home run power.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Frazier has a terrific arm and good range thanks to his above-average speed, and while he would certainly fit the profile of a power-hitting right fielder, there's no reason he can't stick in center.
His speed has not turned into many steals to this point, as he had 12 last season and has 11 so far this year, but he'll be a plus baserunner with double-digit-steal potential at the highest level.
2020 Upside Factor
Offensively, Frazier has as high a ceiling as any other center field prospect in baseball. And at 20 years old, he's only begun to scratch the surface of what he's capable of at the plate.
2020 Overall Projection
It will be interesting to see whom the Indians decide to go with as their long-term center fielder, as both Frazier and the aforementioned Zimmer have the tools to play the position. Either way, both figure to be big pieces of the long-term puzzle in Cleveland.
4. Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers
18 of 21
2020 Age: 28
2020 Offensive Outlook
At some point, Joc Pederson will need to dial back his swing-from-the-heels, all-or-nothing approach at the plate if he wants to reach his full potential.
For now, he's a dangerous power hitter (.839 OPS, 20 home runs) who strikes out a ton (112 strikeouts, 29.4 percent) but also knows how to draw a walk (59 walks, 15.5 percent). He's having a terrific rookie season, but he's too good to be a .230 hitter for his entire career.
Strikeouts are always going to be a big part of his game, and even while hitting .303/.435/.582 in the minors last season, he struck out at a 26.9 percent clip. That said, he should be a perennial 30-home run threat with fantastic on-base numbers.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Pederson doesn't have blazing speed, but he has the range to play center field effectively and a strong throwing arm. So far this season, he's graded out about average in terms of his defensive metrics (0 DRS, 1.2 UZR/150), which will probably be par for the course.
2020 Upside Factor
The holes in Pederson's game are clear, but they shouldn't stop him from being a perennial All-Star for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 23-year-old still has room to improve as he refines his overall approach at the plate.
2020 Overall Projection
The Dodgers thought enough of Pederson to open up a spot for him by trading Matt Kemp in the offseason, and he's rewarded them with a terrific first half. All signs point to his joining Yasiel Puig and Corey Seager to anchor the offense long term.
3. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
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2020 Age: 27
2020 Offensive Outlook
The Red Sox were unwilling to even entertain the idea of trading Mookie Betts during the offseason, and that has quickly proved to be a wise decision.
While he exhausted his rookie eligibility last season, this year has really been his first extended taste of life in the majors, and he's hit .271/.321/.453 with 22 doubles, six triples and 10 home runs on the year.
Despite his undersized 5'9" frame, he has legitimate 20-plus-home run potential. And if nothing else, he should continue to pile up extra-base hits while posting solid batting-average and on-base numbers.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
Betts came up as a second baseman but shifted to center field to unblock his path to a significant role in the big leagues. He's taken to the position better than anyone could have hoped, posting a 7.0 UZR/150 and 10 DRS so far this season.
Good speed has helped Betts in the field, and it's an asset on the basepaths as well, as he's stolen 13 bases on 17 attempts here in 2015 and should be a consistent 20-steal threat going forward.
2020 Upside Factor
Now that's he's settled into life in the big leagues, Betts has quickly displayed the full range of skills that made him such a highly regarded prospect. He hasn't reached his ceiling yet, either, which is a scary proposition for the rest of the American League.
2020 Overall Projection
With Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz coming down the home stretch of their respective careers, Betts is in line to be one of the faces of the franchise going forward. The Red Sox have a lot of center field options behind him, but as long as he keeps producing, he'll be in the everyday lineup.
2. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
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2020 Age: 26
2020 Offensive Outlook
The Minnesota Twins selected Byron Buxton with the No. 2 pick in the 2012 draft, after the Houston Astros went with Carlos Correa with the first pick, and both players look like potential superstars.
Buxton has dealt with some injuries during his time in the minors, but when healthy, he's put his full toolbox on display. In 2013, he hit .334/.424/.520 with 19 doubles, 18 triples and 12 home runs, which put him on the fast track to the majors.
The power tool is still developing for the 6'2", 190-pound Buxton, but he should be a .300 hitter with 20-20 potential in the very near future and a legitimate 30-30 threat down the line.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
"He's a plus defender in center field, using his speed for outstanding range, while also possessing a cannon for an arm," MLB.com's Prospect Watch noted.
That speed also makes him a dangerous baserunner, as he stole 55 bases in 2013 and should be good for at least 30 on a regular basis in the majors.
2020 Upside Factor
Buxton struggled to make the leap to the The Show before landing on the disabled list in June, and at this point, he's still a long way from his ceiling. However, that ceiling is as high as any other young player's in the game.
2020 Overall Projection
The Minnesota Twins have already turned to Buxton as their center fielder of the present, and he figures to lock down the position for the next decade.
1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
21 of 21
2020 Age: 28
2020 Offensive Outlook
A relatively high strikeout rate (22.4 percent for his career) is the only thing keeping Mike Trout from grading out perfectly on the offensive scale.
Even that has improved this season after a 26.1 percent mark in 2014, and with his mix of power, speed, contact skills and on-base numbers, it's easy to overlook 150 or so strikeouts per year.
Trout is currently tied for the lead in the majors with 27 home runs, to go along with a .307/.399/.611 line this year. When it's over, this may wind up being the best season of his career yet.
2020 Defensive/Speed Outlook
After playing a decent amount of left field early in his career, Trout has settled in as a center fielder. Despite the fact that he's built like a linebacker, he has plenty of range and speed, though he grades out as about average from a metrics standpoint.
Trout doesn't run as much as he did during his 49-steal season as a rookie, but he still has some of the best pure speed of any player in the league.
2020 Upside Factor
When you're a 10.8 WAR player as a rookie, there isn't much room for drastic improvement, but Trout has proved to be the best all-around player in the game for several seasons now. At 28 years old, he'll still be very much in the prime of what looks like a Hall of Fame career when 2020 rolls around.
2020 Overall Projection
The Los Angeles Angels gave Trout a huge six-year, $144.5 million extension that runs though 2020, at which time he could be in line for an earth-shattering extension.
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