2025 NFL Predictions for Fantasy's Underrated Stars and Duds at Every Position

Fantasy football is all about maximizing value.

Just like NFL teams must make the most out of every dollar they spend, fantasy managers have to see positive returns on their draft-day investments.

We're here to help you chart that path by spotlighting both underrated and overrated draft values at each of the four skill positions.

Quarterback

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Overrated: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Average Draft Position: 61)

Mayfield is a rock-solid fantasy option at quarterback, but this draft cost—which slots him seventh at the position—treats him more like a special player at the position. That feels like too much, especially when so much of his stat sheet feels primed for regression.

He didn't merely set a bunch of career-highs last season, he shattered a lot of his previous bests. He completed 71.4 percent of his passes after never posting better than a 64.3 percentage. His 41 touchdown passes were 13 more than his previous high. Even his 378 rushing yards towered over his previous best (165). Asking him to even approach these numbers without the same offensive coordinator, Liam Coen (now the Jacksonville Jaguars head coach), and with his top receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, having availability concerns feels like too much at this draft price.

Underrated: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 101)

Prescott's 2024 season was a mess of injury problems and inefficiency. It also has no bearing on the upcoming campaign, although the fantasy world seems to think it will, as they're collectively taking 12 different quarterbacks before him.

In case you're wondering, yes, this is the same Dak Prescott who threw for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns in 2023. And 4,449 yards and 37 touchdowns in 2021. And 4,902 yards and 30 scores in 2019. He has multiple seasons as a fantasy elite, in other words, and he should have enough playmakers to help him return to that standing now that George Pickens has joined up with CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert.

Running Back

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Overrated: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 3)

This is not at all a gut-feel pick. In fact, the mere process makes us a little queasy, since Barkley is such an obvious and incredible talent.

It's just that the numbers game doesn't like his chances of repeating his magical 2024 season, when his many career-highs included his 345 carries, 2,005 rushing yards, 378 touches and 2,283 scrimmage yards. Historically, this level of volume takes a significant toll on a ball-carrier. The last four rushing champs—Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs and Christian McCaffrey—all encountered availability issues the year after they last led the league in the category.

Underrated: D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (ADP: 55)

Swift isn't the most exciting name on the board, but excitement doesn't equate to value. If you nail your star picks at the top, you'll be glad to have "boring" support players, which really just means reliable types who don't have as much volatility week-to-week.

Swift should be a steady source of volume production in a Chicago offense featuring a beefed-up line, more playmakers in the passing game and a new playcaller in head coach Ben Johnson. With no major competition for carries, Swift should clear 1,000 scrimmage yards for the third straight season and has a chance to better the career-high 1,345 he had in 2024.

Wide Receiver

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Overrated: Puka Nacua (ADP: 7)

Nacua has 10 receiving touchdowns in two NFL seasons. While that hasn't prevented him from reaching fantasy stardom, it does up the pressure for him to be an absolute machine when it comes to catches and yards. To his credit, he has passed that test so far, but this draft position reflects a confidence in his ability to keep acing it that we just don't share.

His quarterback, Matthew Stafford, is 37 years old and already battling a back injury. Stafford's backup, Jimmy Garoppolo, had more interceptions than touchdowns the last time he saw significant action. There are worries about the volume in this aerial attack in other words, plus Nacua might be pushed for targets with Davante Adams on the roster. We'd stay away at this price.

Underrated: Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 102)

Fantasy managers seem unconvinced about Pearsall's upside heading into his second season. It's a stance that, frankly, we can't figure out. He might legitimately be the No. 1 wide receiver on one of the league's highest-scoring offenses. Oh, and he went off when the team finally treated him as such late in his rookie season, totaling 14 receptions for 210 yards and two touchdowns over his final two outings.

It's worth pointing out that Pearsall isn't guaranteed to be San Francisco's top wideout, but things seem to be trending that direction. Deebo Samuel is gone, Brandon Aiyuk is still working his way back from an ACL injury and Jauan Jennings has both contract uncertainty and a nagging calf injury. The runway is cleared for Pearsall's takeoff.

Tight End

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Overrated: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 74)

The upside case with Andrews is pretty clear. He obviously has excellent chemistry with quarterback Lamar Jackson, as the pair had 11 touchdown connections last season.

But what if Andrews doesn't score 11 touchdowns again? Because he's the same player who had 11 touchdowns over the two prior campaigns combined before last year's sudden surge. Those 11 scores, by the way, were top among tight ends, even though Andrews only ranked 14th in catches and ninth in yards at the position. Scoring regression could hit him hard, and he won't find the opportunity volume needed to offset that.

Underrated: Evan Engram, Denver Broncos (ADP: 80)

Fantasy managers clearly haven't forgotten—nor forgiven—Engram's injury-riddled 2024 campaign, when he managed just 365 receiving yards and a single score in nine outings. They maybe forgot what he did just one season prior, though, when he turned 143 targets into 114 receptions for 963 yards and four touchdowns.

The Broncos clearly still remember the player Engram can be, as they gave him a two-year, $23 million deal to fill the same role in Sean Payton's offense once filled by former fantasy elite Jimmy Graham. Engram could be all-caps AWESOME.