The Red-Hot Red Sox Are MLB’s Best Plot Twist

It has been nearly two months since the Boston Red Sox traded Rafael Devers, and the joke is on everyone who thought it would lead to their ruination.

It has indeed led to their salvation.

To briefly recap the Red Sox's life since the Devers trade, their 27-16 record—highlighted by two win streaks of at least seven games—is the second-best in the American League. As a result, they've climbed from fourth to second place in the AL East and now claim the AL's top wild card spot.

About the only thing the Red Sox haven't done recently is clean up at the trade deadline, but they found a good way to quell disappointment over that. On Wednesday, they came out of the blue with an eight-year, $130 million contract extension for rising star Roman Anthony. It could keep him in Boston through 2034.

The Red Sox Went Through Hell to Get to This Point

Even with all that said, the Red Sox's 2025 season arguably began with even better vibes than it has now.

Remember their offseason? It was a good one, as chief baseball officer Craig Breslow used both the trade and free agency markets to score four players who are now among the club leaders for rWAR:

Trades: LHP Garrett Crochet (4.7), C Carlos Narváez (2.6)
Signings: 3B Alex Bregman (3.5), Aroldis Chapman (2.3)

But the Bregman signing, of course, was also the one that started one of the ugliest domino effects in recent MLB history.

There was chatter here and there about Bregman possibly moving to second base in deference to Devers, who had been a three-time All-Star as Boston's regular at third base. But once everyone reported for spring training, the dominoes began to fall:

• February 17: Devers insists that third base is "my position"
• February 18: Alex Cora fires back and shades Boston's former CBO
• March 13: Devers reluctantly agrees to move to designated hitter
• May 8: Devers refuses to consider moving to first base after Triston Casas' season-ending knee injury
• May 9: Breslow and ownership meet with Devers in an ill-fated attempt to smooth things over
• June 15: Devers is traded to the San Francisco Giants

The Devers trade doesn't feel as shocking in retrospect as it did in the moment, but it's still worth recalling just how much it felt like a loss for the Red Sox.

It resembled a self-inflicted breakup with their best hitter—Devers had a .905 OPS at the time—and one that benefited their payroll more than their roster. The Red Sox did get the Giants to take on the roughly $250 million Devers is still owed through 2033, but got little in the way of talent in return. Jordan Hicks is the only player they're currently rostering, and he has an ERA over 6.00.

The knives came out immediately, and most were pointed at Breslow. Reports from Buster Olney of ESPN and Joon Lee of Yahoo Sports characterized the second-year CBO as lacking interpersonal skills and in charge of a front office that was losing cohesion.

Amid all this, the Red Sox's odds of making the playoffs for the first time since 2021 went from slowly rebounding to cratering. According to FanGraphs, they were 34.7 percent on the day of the Devers trade. Just 11 days later, they were 13.0 percent.

Now the Red Sox Are Genuinely Dangerous

Cut to now, though, and the Red Sox have a 75.0 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In a strange twist of fate that nobody saw coming, they have been a better offensive team without Devers (5.2 R/G) than they were with him (4.8 R/G). And this is even though Bregman has only played in 19 games during the post-Devers era, a result of his nearly two-month stay on the IL with a quad injury.

How? Well, start with Anthony.

His 144 wRC+ since the Devers trade is 10th-best among AL hitters, with those behind him including Cal Raleigh, Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson. And this is even though the erstwhile No. 1 prospect is technically underachieving a little bit.

Also helping to carry the load have been Jarren Duran (142 wRC+), Trevor Story (143 wRC+) and Ceddanne Rafaela (124 wRC+). And as noted by Paul Hembekides of ESPN, Cora's strategic usage of Abraham Toro, Romy Gonzalez, Rob Refsnyder and even Wilyer Abreu has dramatically increased the frequency with which Boston's offense has had the platoon advantage.

And then there's the overlooked part of Boston's post-Devers era: pitching.

The Red Sox lead all of MLB with a 3.30 ERA since his departure. Crochet is but one of three Red Sox starters with an ERA in the 2.00s, with the others being Lucas Giolito (2.25) and Brayan Bello (2.54). The bullpen has a 3.09 ERA, with the 37-year-old Chapman enjoying a resurgence with 18 scoreless outings in his last 19 tries.

This is not a perfect team by any stretch, but the standard in this year's American League is well below perfection. The season is into August, and the best team in the league is also its biggest overachiever. It's a field that thus feels wide-open.

The Red Sox should feel like their current excellence can have staying power in October. Short on playoff experience though they may be, they have it where it counts with Cora and Bregman. Pile a genuine No. 1 ace, an elite closer and a deep offense on top of that, and they might as well dust off "Why not us?"

It's Hard to Ignore the Giants Contrast

Meanwhile, in San Francisco, Devers' OPS is 190 points south of where it was in Boston, and the Giants are 17-26 since his arrival.

It's a turn for the worse that might have been expected several years down the line. But since it's here now, it's hard not to worry about the Giants' long-term future. They'll be paying Devers, Matt Chapman and Willy Adames over $25 million each through at least 2030. Chapman is 32, and Devers and Adames will both cross the age-30 plateau before the end of 2026.

It's to these contracts that Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey has staked his reputation in his first year as an executive. It's hard to fault him for taking big swings, but they'll only be to his benefit if all three connect.

As Chapman and Adames are also trending below recent performances, the early returns are not promising.

The Future Is Bright in Boston

The Red Sox, on the other hand, now have five players in their early- or mid-20s controlled through at least 2029, and all for average salaries that are beyond reasonable:

Roman Anthony, 21: $16.25 million through 2033 (2034 club option)
Kristian Campbell, 23: $7.5 million through 2032 (2033-34 club options)
Ceddanne Rafaela, 24: $6.25 million through 2031 (2032 club option)
Brayan Bello, 26: $9.17 million through 2029 (2030 club option)
Garrett Crochet, 26: $28.33 million through 2031 (opt-out after 2030)

The only unknown is Campbell, who got wrapped up in the Devers drama amid a terrible funk that ultimately landed him back in the minors. He was the first of Boston's Big Three prospects to reach the majors, however, and he's building confidence amid a torrid stretch at Triple-A.

As for the other members of the Big Three, Anthony is likely to be a finalist for the AL Rookie of the Year—it'll be tough to beat the Athletics' Nick Kurtz at this rate—and Marcelo Mayer had been swinging a warm bat before a wrist injury landed him on the IL. He may yet get extension attention from Boston at some point.

Granted, the Red Sox haven't bought their way out of difficult roster-building decisions in the near future. They face the prospect of Bregman opting out after 2025, and Story also has opt-out leverage that he could put in play.

Let's also be real that a young, cost-controlled core is not the guarantee for long-term success that we would all like it to be. Just ask the Atlanta Braves, whose core went from the envy of baseball to a full-blown albatross in a hurry.

What Boston could learn from Atlanta, however, is that it might be worth it to splurge on outside help.

Whereas the Braves have largely eschewed big-ticket outsiders, the Red Sox's long-term financial flexibility should make it possible to get in on, say, Pete Alonso or even old friend Kyle Schwarber. All it would take is John Henry loosening his purse strings in a way that, as Red Sox fans know all too well, he has been reluctant to do in recent years.

All the same, it is extraordinary just how different the script the Red Sox are writing now is from the one they had going just a few weeks ago.

Early on, the story of their season was one of an over-confident franchise collapsing under the weight of its own incompetence. And now, it looks like they knew exactly what they were doing all along.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.