Examining Indianapolis Colts' Top Fantasy Producers for 2015 Season

One of the keys to fantasy football is predicting the league's best offenses and grabbing the correct "pieces of the pie."

These high-powered offenses rack up a ton of yards, a smorgasbord of scoring opportunities and are often fairly consistent. Dependable options from these offenses are often the catalysts to league-winning squads, such as DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell and Andrew Luck in 2014.

But these offenses can also produce sneaky-good sleeper picks as well. Second and third receiving options on big-play passing offenses can have timely production at a fraction of the cost, and red-zone warriors on such teams (think Julius Thomas) can produce incredibly efficient fantasy numbers.

In 2015, the Indianapolis Colts look to be one of those teams.

Having reloaded on the skill positions, the Colts are poised to give Luck his most dangerous set of weapons yet, giving him and the offense a chance to take a significant leap from last year's impressive numbers.

The Colts signed Andre Johnson and Frank Gore in free agency, immediately upgrading both the run and the passing game while also giving the skill positions a necessary experience boost. But the team also drafted Miami speedster Phillip Dorsett in the first round of the 2015 NFL draft, a move that could create even more big-play opportunities for an already-explosive offense.

If the Colts really are poised to get even better offensively, they become a must-have in the fantasy community. The team was sixth in points and third in yards last season, and a step forward represents an elite offense, at least from a fantasy perspective.

So if one were to obtain a piece of this puzzle in upcoming fantasy drafts, which piece should it be? The Colts have a multitude of options, all with varying expectations, risks and rewards.

Based on my (admittedly optimistic) projections for the 2015 Colts, here is whom you should be drafting in the coming weeks.

Andrew Luck: The One Who Makes It Go

The Colts offense will have quite a few benefactors in 2015, but if you want to be sure to receive as much of the production as possible, Luck is the player to target.

Yes, Luck is being drafted high, with an average draft position (ADP) in the early second round, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. But with his upgraded weapons and continued NFL development, Luck has a chance for an historically good season, and his floor is incredibly high.

Year	Att.	Comp.	Yards	TDs	INT
Passing	630	416	5100	45	12
Rushing	60	-	300	3	-

Luck was the league-leader for the vast majority of last year's fantasy football season, with only a rash of minor injuries slowing down the Indianapolis Colts offense in the final weeks of the season. The Colts have upgraded those positions that held them back last season, replacing Reggie Wayne with Andre Johnson, Hakeem Nicks with Phillip Dorsett and Trent Richardson with Frank Gore.

Even if the upgrades aren't as good as they seem, Luck will still have a high usage rate. Frank Gore may give the Colts cause to have a bit more confidence in the running game, but that doesn't mean that they will necessarily utilize it more often.

Gore had 255 carries last season, while Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for 249. If the Colts do run the ball more often in 2015, it likely won't be by much. After seeing the investments in the passing game, it's clear the Colts will still be a pass-heavy team.

With a similar workload and improved efficiency, Luck could have the Colts' first-ever 5,000-yard passing season.

So where should you draft Luck?

The answer to that question depends on your fantasy strategy. Generally, I lean toward finding a quarterback later, but if you like to have a quarterback to plug and play for the entire season without worrying week-to-week, I wouldn't fault you for taking him in the second round, where his current value is.

If you're a late-round quarterback kind of guy, you'll likely see Luck go off the board early and not bat an eye. But if Luck is, by some miracle, still on the board in the late third round, go against your instincts and take him. He'll be that much better than the rest of the quarterback field.

The Run Game: A Bell-Cow and Handcuffs

Player	Rushing Att.	Yards	TDs	Receptions	Rec. Yds	Rec. TDs
Frank Gore	225	1000	6	38	300	6
Dan Herron	75	340	1	27	210	3
Josh Robinson	40	150	2	15	100	0

The Colts signed Frank Gore to be a bell-cow running back, but with their own little twist.

For Indianapolis, a bell-cow back doesn't necessarily mean 300 carries and more than 1,000 yards rushing. In all honesty, Gore's ceiling this season is likely around 1,000 yards, and he's by no means guaranteed to get there.

But what Gore is likely to do is increase his efficiency from last season and see more touchdown opportunities. Ahmad Bradshaw scored eight total touchdowns and had 38 catches in 10 games last season while splitting time with Trent Richardson, and I don't think Gore will have any problems hitting those numbers.

Gore may see Dan Herron take some of his receiving opportunities, but for the most part, he'll be the lead back, which is a productive spot in Indianapolis. Remember, Bradshaw was putting up double-digit fantasy points each week before his injury last season. Gore should be in the same range, which makes him a steal as an RB2 drafted somewhere in the third or fourth rounds. Fantasy Football Calculator has Gore's ADP at 3.05 right now, which is still a good value.

Remember, it's easy to get a handcuff with Gore by taking Dan Herron and/or Josh Robinson late. Those two may split carries too much to give you RB1 numbers, but they will be productive if Gore is forced out.

Outside of Luck and perhaps T.Y. Hilton, Gore is probably the safest bet for a consistent chunk out of the Indianapolis offensive machine.

Better Value: T.Y. Hilton or Andre Johnson?

Player	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yds/Rec.	Catch %	TDs
T.Y. Hilton	135	90	1400	15.56	67%	7
Andre Johnson	130	85	1080	12.71	65%	8

After taking the world by storm and finishing the year as a top-10 receiver last year, T.Y. Hilton isn't underrated in fantasy anymore. 

Hilton is currently being drafted early in the third round, per Fantasy Football Calculator, right alongside Alshon Jeffery and Mike Evans.

The question for Hilton is: Has he peaked?

As a smaller receiver with a well-rounded skill set, it's easy to see how Hilton's lack of a higher ceiling hurts him in regards to physical freaks like Jeffery and Evans. But if you look closely at Hilton's explosive 2014 season, you'll see that there is still room for improvement for the fourth-year receiver.

Hilton had a lingering hamstring injury in the final weeks of 2014 that severely hampered his play, although he still played down the stretch as the Colts made a deep playoff run. When healthy, Hilton was dominating defenses despite, as Bucky Brooks of NFL.com put it, "facing some form of double coverage on nearly every snap."

He's one of the most dangerous big-play threats in the league, but Hilton also has a well-rounded toolbox, and his chemistry with Luck is invaluable. Even with new targets available to Luck, Hilton should see his 130 targets from last season return, as he still had one of the lightest target percentages of any WR1 in the league. He's not target-dependent, and his production should become more efficient as the offense improves.

But Andre Johnson might just be the better value play for the 2015 fantasy season.

While Johnson had a down year last year, for a variety of reasons, he should fit in perfectly with the Colts.

Luck loves possession receivers who can work the middle of the field. Reggie Wayne had 116 targets last season despite not being able to move for the second half of the season. When healthy, Wayne was effective for Indianapolis, averaging over six receptions and 80 yards per game in 2012 and 2013 (and just under 13 yards per catch).

Johnson is certainly better than Wayne was last season, and we'll find out if the move to Indianapolis (and a better quarterback) can rejuvenate his career.

As long as he stays on the field, Johnson should see a huge amount of targets thrown his way, almost as much as Hilton should see as the No. 1 receiver. While Hilton will be more efficient with his targets with more big plays, Johnson is still sure-handed and should be a better red-zone target.

A dependable possession option is exactly what Luck has needed over the last few seasons as Wayne's body has betrayed him, and Johnson should fill the void easily. After all, there are 184 targets between Wayne and Hakeem Nicks that must be replaced. Johnson should be the biggest beneficiary there.

With a current ADP in the fourth round, Johnson is a good value, but it's stellar if you can get him in the fifth or later, where he's slid in many pre-training-camp mock drafts. Johnson has the potential to put up WR1 numbers, and again, the Colts offense gives him a pretty high floor.

The Rest of the Targets: Too Much Sharing?

Player	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yds/Rec.	Catch %	TDS
Phillip Dorsett	50	35	550	15.71	70%	3
Donte Moncrief	50	30	450	15.00	60%	4
Dwayne Allen	65	42	600	14.29	65%	8
Coby Fleener	80	43	550	12.79	54%	5

With only so many targets to go around, figuring out the rest of the Colts' production for 2015 is a fool's errand, but we'll take a crack at it anyway.

It's up to Moncrief and Dorsett to split the remaining receiver targets, and I think it will be a pretty even split there. Moncrief has the advantage of experience and chemistry with Luck, but Dorsett will get his chances early on, and he will likely be used a bit more creatively as well.

Moncrief should be the better red-zone threat, but Dorsett will provide one or two more big plays.

The Colts tight ends snatched up a bulk of the Colts' receiving production last season, and I think one player who will suffer with the influx of receivers is Coby Fleener.

Fleener took advantage of a large number of defensive miscues last season as defenses focused on Hilton and Moncrief, but there will be a larger focus on Fleener this year after seeing how he was used last year. I see more three-receiver sets in the Colts' future, which likely means fewer snaps for Fleener.

I hope the fourth-year tight end proves me wrong, but with more difficult plays needed to be made, I expect Fleener to regress a bit in 2015.

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Allen, on the other hand, should have a good chance to produce if he's completely healthy. He's more naturally talented than Fleener as a blocker, and he's underrated as a receiver. Allen was averaging 14.38 yards per reception before his injury last season to go along with a 65 percent catch rate, and I think he'll get back to those rates in 2015.

Plus, Allen is still good in contested-catch situations, where Fleener struggles, and it won't be as difficult as it may seem to repeat his high touchdown percentage from last season.

But overall, I'd avoid the Colts' tight ends as starters in fantasy if possible. The addition of receivers and running backs makes their roles bigger question marks, and how the snaps will split up is still a mystery. If you have to pick one, go Allen, but try to grab Fleener as an injury handcuff if possible, especially in best-ball leagues.

Those best-ball leagues are also the best places to grab Dorsett and Moncrief, both of whom will likely be too inconsistent to depend upon in traditional leagues. But both players will likely have a big game or two with long touchdowns, which make them ideal late-round picks in best-ball leagues.