British Open 2015: Last-Minute Odds, Picks and Projections
The pairings are set, the Old Course at St. Andrews is ready, and the best golfers in the world—sans one notable player—have descended upon the east coast of Fife in Scotland for the 144th Open Championship.
Here in the United States, we call it the British Open. Overseas, it is simply The Open.
This year's tournament runs from July 16-19 and, as usual, is shaping up as must-watch television (that is, assuming you can't get there in person). The young guns of golf are primed to flex their muscles, but the par-72, 7,297-yard layout at St. Andrews is one that demands as much brains and precision as it does brawn.
Veterans who are more familiar with the place might figure to have an edge. But then, the weather can and will turn on a moment's notice at St. Andrews, bringing with it the potential to shut down low-scoring opportunities that seemed apparent to golfers only moments before.
"Links golf often comes down to a bounce here and there, a gust of wind and/or the Thursday-Friday draw. No amount of preparation can ready you for that," Mark Godich, senior editor for Sports Illustrated, told Golf.com.
But fans can be prepared, no matter what. So before the tournament gets underway this Thursday, take a closer look at some last-minute storylines, odds, picks and predictions. Then settle in to watch the drama unfold.
The Favorite
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The clear-cut tournament favorite as he chases the third leg of golf's Grand Slam is Jordan Spieth.
The 21-year-old phenom who already has won the Masters and the U.S. Open this year goes off as a 9-2 favorite, according to Odds Shark. No one else is even close, really.
Some questioned Spieth's decision to stay behind in the States last weekend and play in the John Deere Classic in Silvia, Illinois, when many other pros headed to Scotland to play in the Scottish Open or to St. Andrews for early preparation. Winning that tournament helped silence at least some of them, although it wasn't on a links-style course anything like St. Andrews.
"The best preparation is winning, whether it's on links, land or American golf or at Pirates of the Caribbean miniature golf," Gary Van Sickle, a senior writer at Sports Illustrated, told Golf.com. "I don't think Spieth lacked confidence before, but now, he's got to feel like he made a great choice."
Top Challengers
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Among those who made the decision to head overseas early was Rickie Fowler, who won the Scottish Open when he birdied three of the last four holes to overtake fellow American Matt Kuchar.
Fowler now rates as one of the favorites to challenge Spieth, going off at 14-1. He could also benefit from an early tee time on Friday, as harsh weather might hamper the groups going off later.
The top five challengers to Spieth figure to be Dustin Johnson (10-1), Fowler, Justin Rose (18-1), Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson (both 20-1). Of those five, only Johnson, who will be playing in a group with Spieth, will have to tee off in the afternoon on Friday, when the weather is supposed to turn nasty.
Next up with supposedly the best odds of winning are Louis Oosthuizen (22-1), Tiger Woods (25-1), Jason Day (28-1) and a whole slew of guys at 33-1, including Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey and Hideki Matsuyama.
Note: All odds according to Odds Shark.
There Will Be a New Champion
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Due to the unfortunate injury that has sidelined defending British Open champion Rory McIlroy, one thing is certain: There will not be a repeat winner in this year's tournament. McIlroy is sidelined by a left ankle injury suffered recently in a self-described "soccer kickabout" with friends.
Had he been able to play, McIlroy, the No. 1-ranked player in the world, likely would have gone off as a slight favorite over Spieth, despite Spieth's amazing record this season of four wins overall, including the two majors. The edge would have gone to McIlroy not only because he's the defending champ, but also because he's far more familiar with the quirky nature of links-style play in the fickle weather of Scotland.
Now, a strong tournament by Spieth, not necessarily even a victory, could be enough for him to overtake McIlroy as the world's No. 1. As if the young American, currently No. 2, needed any extra motivation.
Weather on the Way to St. Andrews
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Bad weather is on the way to St. Andrews.
It is supposed to strike Friday afternoon, with a 100 percent chance of rain and winds gusting up to 22 mph, according to the Weather Channel (via CBS Sports). The rain is forecasted to go away by Saturday, but winds are supposed to still gust up to 23 mph, which can do funny things to golf balls in flight.
That's where someone adept at hitting low, laser-like irons into what will be softer greens might end up with a huge advantage. (See: the old Tiger Woods.)
The Old Course otherwise is set up for low scores, with fairways and greens that are softer than usual because of recent wet weather. They are, in fact, much softer than Woods ever remembers.
"I'm going to have to do a little bit of feel around the greens, my putting," Woods told Golf.com after a Nike-sponsored three-hole practice round with some thrilled junior golfers last Saturday. "I wasn't expecting the firmness to be that soft. We made ball marks on the greens. I don't ever remember making ball marks around this place."
Is There a Tiger Lurking?
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Veteran players who have battled its oft-fickle winds can attest to the ever-changing nature of the Old Course, and they know how to play it. Or rather, they know how it plays. There is a difference, as Woods noted when recently recalling his first round at the place 20 years ago.
"I played all 18 holes into the wind," Woods told Steve DiMeglio of USA Today. "I had heard people say you can drive 9 with a certain wind, you can drive 10, and you can drive 12. And I can't touch any of these holes, (so I'm thinking), 'What are they talking about?' Then the wind switches and it was a totally different golf course.
"Then you'd go, 'What are these bunkers here for? They're not even close to being in play.' Then the wind switches and, 'Oh my God, they are in play.' That's the genius of this place."
Now 39, Woods won the British Open at St. Andrews in both 2000 when he was the same age Spieth is now (21) and again in 2005. He finished tied for 23rd when it was played there in 2010.
While you can expect him to play much better than he did at the U.S. Open, where he failed to make the cut, it would be a major surprise if Woods actually contends for the win. A top-20 finish is possible, though, and would be another step in the right direction after the otherwise struggling, toothless Tiger rallied to finish tied for 32nd in the recent Greenbrier Classic.
Hail to Tom Watson and Nick Faldo
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Neither Tom Watson nor Nick Faldo will win this Open Championship.
But let's hope they both play well enough to make the cut and at least last into the weekend.
It will be the 38th and final Open for Watson, who won it five times. Only Harry Vardon, who won it six times between 1896 and 1914, ever laid claim to more Open wins (although the 65-year-old Watson is one of four golfers with five). None of Watson's titles came at St. Andrews, even though he was tied for the 54-hole lead in 1978 when Jack Nicklaus won, and was tied for the lead with two holes to play in 1984 when Seve Ballesteros birdied No. 18 to win.
Still, Watson told Golf.com of the Old Course: "This is the place I want to finish my career playing The Open Championship."
Faldo did win one of his three Open titles at St. Andrews in 1990. Now 57, he has spent the last decade analyzing tournaments from the broadcast booth more than playing in them, and he also says this will be his farewell.
"The Open and St. Andrews will forever hold a significant place in my heart," Faldo told CNN. "My fondest moments on my journey with this great sport are woven with pictures and emotions in this setting. It all means a huge amount to me."
Dark Horses
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Is this the year someone like Lee Westwood finally breaks through and wins a major?
With McIlroy out of the field, a few dark horses could emerge if Spieth and some of the other top contenders stumble and leave the door of opportunity wide open.
Westwood is one of them. He's won 23 times on the European Tour and finished second in 2010 the last time The Open Championship was played at St. Andrews. He's also an 80-1 long shot.
Dark horses who come in with better odds include Martin Kaymer and Shane Lowry, who are both at 35-1 and carrying some positive momentum from their recent play.
Going off at 66-1 is an intriguing player in Tommy Fleetwood, listed recently by the Irish Times as one of five players "who can stop Jordan Spieth." Philip Reid of the Times wrote of Fleetwood:
"With the cool, soft conditions, this Open actually has similarities with how the links plays during the Dunhill Links. Which is why the Englishman is worth more than a second look: he is a combined 37-under for the last two Dunhills, including closing rounds of 68 and 67 on the Old Course for fifth in 2013 and second in 2014.
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But this could be the tournament where Westwood, whose best years are considered behind him at age 42, rises up and surprises. Other 80-1 long shots to keep an eye on include Graeme McDowell, Ian Poulter, J.B. Holmes, Luke Donald and Zach Johnson.
All odds according to Odds Shark.
And the Pick Is ...
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Louis Oosthuizen not only is the last player to have won The Open Championship when it was played at St. Andrews, but he did so by the whopping margin of seven strokes.
Sure, that was five years ago in 2010. But Oosthuizen also played well recently in the U.S. Open, overcoming a horrific start after shooting 77 in the opening round to post back-to-back 66s and get in the hunt for the win on Sunday. He eventually finished tied for second with Dustin Johnson, reeling off five consecutive birdies on the back nine while making a charge in the final round.
That gives him confidence going into this Open. Like Spieth and Johnson, he may have to overcome a bout with poor weather at some point following his Friday afternoon tee time, but Oosthuizen also will be playing at a course where he knows he can have success. Last time when he won on the Old Course, he finished with a four-day total of 272 that was 16-under par.
He was 11 under over his final three rounds at the U.S. Open, after which he told golf writer Bob Harig of ESPN:
"You sort of forget how you play when you get in that situation of having a chance to win a major. The last time I felt that was in 2012 at Augusta (when he lost in a playoff to Bubba Watson). It was nice being in that spot again. I felt very relaxed. I felt eager to get to the next hole and try and get some birdies going. I wasn't nervous at all.
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That bodes well for his chances this weekend.
Joe Menzer, who has written six sports-related books, now writes about golf and other sports for Bleacher Report while also working as a writer and editor for Fox Sports. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
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