UFC 318: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions

Saturday's UFC 318 card will be a tear-jerker for Dustin Poirier fans.

The beloved lightweight legend is set to make his final walk to the Octagon in the card's main event, and he'll do so in front of legions of dedicated fans on home turf in New Orleans.

Most inside the host Smoothie King Center will be hoping the 36-year-old wins, yet there will be no shortage of viewers hoping for the opposite, as his opponent will Max Holloway.

And the 33-year-old is one of the few fighters in the sport who commands the same kind of respect and affection as Poirier from fans.

It will be the third time Poirier and Holloway have met. The former won the first two fights—first by submission and later by decision—but the latter has seemingly levelled up yet again since their last meeting.

It's a dynamite, coin-flip of a fight in 2025—so much so that the novelty "BMF" title up for grabs in the contest feels like a bit of an afterthought.

Speaking of afterthoughts, let's talk about the rest of the UFC 318 main card. This isn't a terrible pay-per-view, but it's been widely criticized for its quality, and it's pretty easy to understand why.

The co-main will see floundering former middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa take on a fringe contender in Roman Kopylov. The next-biggest fight on the card is a welterweight contest between Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez, and a featherweight scrap between Dan Ige and Patricio "Pitbull" Freire.

The main card opener will see lightweight veteran Michael Johnson take a high-risk bout against rising contender Daniel Zellhuber.

Outside the main event, nothing on the main card has immediate title implications. That being said, every contest on the main event has a massive potential for violence.

In other words, this could turn out be one of those much-criticized cards that fight fans end up talking about for decades after the fact.

Here's how the B/R squad sees it all going down.

Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway III

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Tom Taylor: I love this fight. But I hate this fight too. That's because Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway are two of my favorite fighters ever, and as much as I'm excited to see them fight again, I can't bear the thought of either of them losing.

Of course, somebody has to lose, and while Poirier may be a little slower than he once was, I think the outcome of his second fight with Holloway tells us all we need to know about this third meeting.

Holloway was the faster back then too, but Poirier was smooth, accurate and powerful in his counter-assault. I expect things will unfold more or less the same this time around, to the joy of the fans in Louisiana.

The fact that both fighters have taken tons of punishment in their recent careers provides an interesting variable—this could be the fight where either man's chin really goes—but I've still got to go with Poirier.

Long live The Diamond. I've heard they are forever.

Prediction: Poirier by unanimous decision.

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Kudos to Poirier for wanting a legit fight for his swan song, but that doesn't make it any easier for us to pick between two of the most legitimate badasses—and two of the best human beings—on the roster.

Holloway had the most recent highlight with the epic KO of Gaethje 15 months ago, though Poirier's finish of Benoit Saint Denis a month earlier was no joke, and he pushed Islam Makhachev to the limit in a UFC 302 title shot.

Provided he's healthy and focused here, I will lean toward a trilogy sweep. But I honestly just hope it's a good fight that lives up to their accomplishments.

Prediction: Poirier by unanimous decision

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

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Tom Taylor: I think we all feel the same way about this "co-main event," so I won't bother getting into that.

As for the result? Paulo Costa has been promising to get to the old, hyper-aggressive style that once made him one of the scariest fighters in the middleweight division. I’ve heard that sweet song before. I’m not buying it this time.

Not only is Costa woefully undependable when it comes to promising-making, but he also happens to be fighting a much more-refined striker in Roman Kopylov—even if the Russian’s resume doesn’t really show it yet.

Maybe this really is the fight where Costa gets back to his old self, but I just don’t see it. Kopylov lights him up with counters over three rounds, and makes the judges' job easy.

Prediction: Kopylov by unanimous decision 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: It doesn’t feel like nearly five years since Costa got his title shot against then-champ Adesanya, but he’s now become a measuring stick at 185 pounds. That’s what three losses in four post-Izzy fights will do for a guy.

They’re both 34 years old, but Kopylov is on the rise thanks to a 6-1 run since the start of 2022 and seems the more versatile fighter in 2025.

Prediction: Kopylov by unanimous decision

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez

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Tom Taylor: I'm a bit surprised Kevin Holland didn't get a ranked opponent after his recent welterweight wins over Gunnar Nelson and Vicente Luque, but Daniel Rodriguez is a solid challenge for him.

That being said, I can't see Holland losing this one. While he may not be known as a grappler, he is far better in that department than his opponent—he proved that in his last two wins. Holland is also the kind of long, rangy, and powerful striker who has given Rodriguez trouble in the past.

Remember when Rodriguez fought Ian Machado Garry? I suspect Holland will do him even worse.

Prediction: Holland by KO, Rd. 1 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I won’t pretend I have any idea about Holland anymore.

I was all in after his 5-for-5 run in 2020 and have since been more disappointed than not while he's gone 7-8 with a no-contest in 16 fights. But he’s been impressive at 170 and seems to be on a higher plane than Rodriguez, who dropped three straight after his own 7-1 run.

If there's a highlight to be had outside of the main event, it could be here.

Prediction: Holland by KO, Round 2 

Dan Ige vs. Patricio Freire

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Tom Taylor: Dan Ige is nothing if not reliable entertainment, as he proved in his losing effort against Diego Lopes last year, and his recent win over Sean Woodson.

Still, I don’t consider him a truly elite featherweight. Meanwhile, I have considered Patricio “Pitbull” Freire a world-class featherweight for years. For well over a decade, actually. What makes this fight interesting is that the Brazilian from Bellator is now 38 years old, and 1-3 in his last 4. 

To me, this one comes down whether Pitbull can still take a hard shot. Rizin star Chihiro Suzuki finished him in 2023, but Yair Rodriguez couldn’t do it earlier this year, and he’s one of the best strikers in the featherweight division.

Based on that, it's really hard to guess how much punishment he can take. My guess is that he can take enough to slip by Ige in a mostly-striking affair. 

Prediction: Freire by unanimous decision 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: So, there's a little less hype this time around about Freire, eh? His arrival from Bellator led to one of the biggest laid eggs in recent memory at UFC 314, and his run would be pretty much dead and buried if he can't manage to handle Ige, who’s a popular guy but still just 5-6 since the start of 2021. That urgency breaks the tie for me.

Prediction: Freire by TKO, Round 2  

Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor: This fight means pretty much nothing for the lightweight title picture, but the UFC knew what they were doing when they booked it for Saturday’s pay-per-view opener. It’s going to be violent. 

Michael Johnson is one of the most experienced fighters in the promotion right now, with wins over the likes of Tony Ferguson and Dustin Poirier—in their primes. Zellhuber, meanwhile, is a bona fide action star—even if he’s yet to become a serious contender. 

The obvious variable here is age. Johnson is on the way out, and prone to uglier and uglier losses. Zellhuber is yet to reach the height of his power. We know how this story goes. 

Prediction: Zellhuber by TKO, Rd. 1 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: It’s old vs. young to start off the PPV show, but it’s not as if the youngster—Zellhuber at 26 compared to Johnson’s 39—is some unstoppable force. He’s 3-2 since a Contender Series win in 2021 and won’t be bringing anything to the table that Johnson, who’s fought damned near everyone since arriving in 2010, hasn’t seen. Score one for the old guys.

Prediction: Johnson by split decision