Making the Case For and Against Every 2025 NFL MVP Candidate

Four different players have won MVP in the last four NFL seasons, but there's a decent chance that streak ends in 2025. 

The top two favorites to win the award this year are the last two MVPs: Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

Still, there are cases to be made for and against both, and for every other player on the MVP radar entering the 2025 campaign. Here they are, with the odds for each candidate coming from DraftKings.

Prime Candidates

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

Lamar Jackson

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

Odds: +550 

For: Last year's winner has finished in the top five in MVP voting in each of the last three seasons and has all the tools to repeat.

Against: The bar will be higher this time, especially if Joe Burrow again puts up superior numbers and the Bengals actually win. 

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

Odds: +550 

For: The league’s most dynamic offensive weapon has been a first-team All-Pro in each of the last two seasons, and the core is back. 

Against: The bar may be even higher here, as we saw when he lost out to first-timer Allen in 2024. The same Burrow factor could also hurt Jackson, especially if the Bengals beat out the Ravens in the AFC North. 

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow

Odds: +650

For: He's due. The 28-year-old was a killer with a league-high 43 passing touchdowns in 2024, and he might have won MVP if the Bengals had made the playoffs. 

Against: Despite Burrow being an elite quarterback in his prime with oodles of support and weapons, the team has failed to win 10 games in back-to-back campaigns. That’s also a tough division. 

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Odds: +700 

For: He's one of the most accomplished and clutch players in the history of the NFL. 

Against: Mahomes' supporting cast isn't what it was, and he has thrown an AFC-low 25 interceptions while ranking below the league median in passer rating since the start of 2023. It's possible the 29-year-old peaked a few years ago.

Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels 

Odds: +750

For: The 2024 No. 2 overall pick is riding a wild trajectory after lighting up the league as a rookie. Now, he has even more support and experience around him ahead of Year 2.

Against: Sophomore slumps are real. Did you see what happened to C.J. Stroud in 2024? And the league will be ready for Daniels this year. 

Tier 2 Candidates

AP Photo/Mike Roemer

Jordan Love

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts

Odds: +1700

For: The reigning Super Bowl MVP has the skill set and the support, and if the Eagles can keep rolling even with a drop-off from Saquon Barkley, who knows...

Against: Barkley's presence makes it difficult, along with the fact that the Eagles are so loaded across the board. Their success is hardly ever strongly tied to Hurts. 

Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert

Odds: +1800

For: The 27-year-old experienced a career year in Jim Harbaugh's debut season in L.A. If he can build on that and lead the Bolts to a surprise division title, he will have a shot. 

Against: There might be a ceiling in Harbaugh's run-oriented offense, and Herbert might still lack the weaponry and the consistency. He has never been a prime MVP candidate in five pro seasons. 

Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love 

Odds: +2500

For: Only two years into his career as a starter, Love's highs have been super-high (119.9 passer rating in a five-game midseason stretch last year). 

Against: But his lows have been super-low (88.2 passer rating in the seven games that preceded that hot streak).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield 

Odds: +2500

For: The 2018 No. 1 overall pick was the league's fourth-highest-rated passer while leading the Bucs to another division crown in 2024.

Against: There's a good chance that was Mayfield's ceiling, especially with aging support and considering he also threw a tied league-high 16 interceptions. 

Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud 

Odds: +2500

For: Like Daniels in 2024, he was a rookie legend in 2023. If he can put a sophomore slump aside and build on his 2023 campaign in Year 3, anything is possible.  

Against: The Texans have undergone major offensive-line changes, and not necessarily for the better. And even if Stroud rebounds, he's got a long way to go considering his bottom-12 passer rating in 2024.

Long Shots

AP Photo/Jessica Tobias

Dak Prescott

Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

Odds: +2800

For: The 2019 top pick has the ability and potentially the weaponry with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. If he guides the Cardinals to surprise contender status, it's on the table. 

Against: Just once in six inconsistent seasons has the 27-year-old posted a passer rating of 95 or higher. The team might also still be a year away, and Murray has struggled with injuries. 

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams

Odds: +2800

For: The talent is there for the 2024 No. 1 overall pick, and now he’s working with a completely revamped offensive line. He's got the ammo and the supporting cast to explode as a sophomore. 

Against: In this kind of competition, it's hard to envision a 23-year-old quarterback going from 87.8 passer rating and 6.3 yards-per-attempt average for a five-win team to league MVP.  

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff

Odds: +3000

For: During a tremendous 2024 campaign, the 30-year-old veteran was the NFC's highest-rated passer while helping the Lions win 15 games. 

Against: Despite that, he only finished fifth in MVP voting. It's possible voters see the Lions as too talented for Goff to ever be viewed on the same level as Allen, Jackson, Burrow or Mahomes.

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott

Odds: +3000

For: Just a year ago, the highly-paid veteran led the league with 36 touchdown passes while posting a 105.6 passer rating as the MVP runner-up. 

Against: Prescott, who turns 32 this month, has missed large chunks of three of the last five seasons. His offensive line might also face major challenges on the edge, and the Cowboys have the second-lowest odds to win the NFC East. 

San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy

Odds: +3000

For: The 25-year-old is the highest-rating passer in NFL history (min. 1,000 attempts), and it's entirely possible he becomes a superman for a team that has lost plenty of talent. 

Against: Without that talent, it's hard to imagine that happening. Keep in mind Purdy's numbers fell off a cliff while the 49ers were ravaged by injuries in 2024.