UFC Fight Night 71: Main Card Staff Predictions
For the third time in five days the UFC is breaking out its Octagon. This Wednesday, July 15, the promotion will host UFC Fight Night 71 in San Diego.
The event features a dozen fights, including a six-fight main card topped off by a clash of heavyweights with opposing approaches to mixed martial arts.
Submission specialist Frank Mir will take on the hard-hitting Todd Duffee in the headliner, while lightweights Tony Ferguson and Josh Thomson will square off for the co-main event.
The full UFC Fight Night 71 main card is as follows:
- Frank Mir vs. Todd Duffee
- Josh Thomson vs. Tony Ferguson
- Holly Holm vs. Marion Reneau
- Scott Jorgensen vs. Manny Gamburyan
- Kevin Lee vs. James Moontasri
- Alan Jouban vs. Matt Dwyer
There is some solid talent on this agenda, as well as some competitive matchups. The Bleacher Report staff picks team is here to provide some insight each one.
Scott "Hot Potato" Harris, Riley "Ketchup" Kontek, James "Mustard Seed" MacDonald, Sean "Sugar-Free" Smith and Craig "Apple Cider" Amos will now share our forecasts with you for the six contests listed above.
2015 Rankings
1 of 7
You know what rankings are? They're numbers. Numbers that can be interpreted in all kinds of crazy ways. I mean, take these rankings. Crazy, right?
- James MacDonald: 75-42
- Riley Kontek: 75-42
- Sean Smith: 72-45
- Scott Harris: 65-52
- Craig Amos: 65-52
A cursory glance would suggest that Scott Harris and I are incompetent ignoramuses, while James MacDonald is some shimmering sea of MMA knowledge and Riley Kontek is a real smartypants. That would make Sean Smith some sort of Blah that the leaders and losers could pity alike. Poor Sean.
But I ask you to look deeper than at some groupings of highly subjective symbols that cast a faint reflection of reality.
I won't go into detail, but just remember, these rankings are not important or accurate. Should that change and they become important, I'll let you know. But for now, ignore the rankings and proceed to the picks.
Alan Jouban vs. Matt Dwyer
2 of 7
Sean Smith
This should be a fun one between two welterweight knockout artists. Jouban has scored eight knockouts in 11 career wins, while Dwyer has gotten all eight of his MMA victories via knockouts. Somebody is getting knocked out in this one, and I see Jouban having the better chin.
Jouban, knockout, Rd. 1
Riley Kontek
Early implications say that this could be Fight of the Night. Both Matt Dwyer and Alan Jouban like to bang on the feet and do so in violent fashion. The difference? Jouban is plain better right now. Dwyer has a good ceiling in the UFC, but Jouban has just shown to be a better fighter right now.
Jouban, TKO, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
Jouban has had some bad luck with injuries, but when he's on and fully healthy, he can really make some noise at welterweight. His muay thai game should overwhelm Matt Dwyer early and lead to the stoppage.
Jouban, TKO, Rd. 2
James MacDonald
Someone is destined to take a nap in this battle of knockout artists, but it won’t be the viewers. Dwyer is the more fragile of the two and has been slept a couple of times. Additionally, Jouban boasts a more diverse game, so he should have the edge in this one.
Jouban, knockout, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Jouban has been terrific as a UFC fighter. He's amassed a 2-1 record, the loss a remarkably dubious decision defeat. He'll keep building momentum by taking out Dwyer.
Jouban, TKO, Rd. 3
Kevin Lee vs. James Moontasri
3 of 7
Sean Smith
Since joining the UFC roster, Lee has only lost to Al Iaquinta, who is now a contender in the lightweight division. At 22 years old and with three straight wins since then, Lee too could be headed toward the top at 155 pounds. With a 1-1 record inside the Octagon, Moontasri almost seems to be a step down in competition for Lee, who beat Michel Prazeres in his last outing. For that reason, I see Lee cruising to another decision victory.
Lee, unanimous decision
Riley Kontek
Kevin Lee is not the most exciting fighter, but he is effective. James Moontasri is an exciting fighter, while being effective. If we go on that verbal math, Moontasri has the advantage, no? Terrible logic, but my money is nevertheless on Moontasri.
Moontasri, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
This is a fight between two promising fighters. Moontasri is a little more under the radar than Lee, but I still think Lee will win, thanks mainly to his rugged power-wrestling game.
Lee, unanimous decision
James MacDonald
Lee is a decent prospect who might end up making some waves at lightweight, and he probably has a few too many tools for the more limited Moontasri.
Lee, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Moontasri is a fun guy to watch, but Lee will control him and make him not so fun to watch. Lee might even get the finish.
Lee, submission, Rd. 3
Scott Jorgensen vs. Manny Gamburyan
4 of 7
Sean Smith
Following an unsuccessful run at 125 pounds, Jorgensen has decided to return to the bantamweight division. Given the speed disadvantages he faced in the flyweight class, I think it’s a good move that could get him back on track toward contending for a UFC championship. Gamburyan has had problems with wrestlers in the past, so Jorgensen should be able to return to the win column with some takedowns.
Jorgensen, unanimous decision
Riley Kontek
Two men with their backs against the wall. Both former title challengers, both struggling immensely in recent times. So who do you go with? Do you trust the wrestling of Jorgensen or the power of Gamburyan. I flipped a coin here and that coin must have been terrified of Gamburyan's temper.
Gamburyan, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Gamburyan is solid with his judo and all, but Jorgensen is more well rounded. Back at 135 pounds, Jorgensen is more viable and will pick up a good W.
Jorgensen, unanimous decision
James MacDonald
This is a bad matchup for Gamburyan. He excels on the floor, and his striking leaves something to be desired. Jorgensen should come out on top in what is likely to be an underwhelming kickboxing match.
Jorgensen, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Both of these one-time contenders have seen better days. Jorgensen has lost six of eight, Gamburyan four of seven, coming into this one. One has to get back on track, and that will be Gamburyan. He'll punch his way in close, get some takedowns and rack up points.
Gamburyan, unanimous decision
Holly Holm vs. Marion Reneau
5 of 7
Sean Smith
There was a lot of excitement around Holm’s UFC debut, but she was underwhelming in a split-decision win over Raquel Pennington. There was nothing underwhelming about Reneau’s last performance, where she submitted solid grappler Jessica Andrade in less than two minutes. If Reneau can get this to the ground early and avoid Holm’s kickboxing, the hype train will be derailed.
Reneau, submission, Rd. 1
Riley Kontek
Marion Reneau's run has been superb so far, but one thing troubles me: She got hurt early against Jessica Andrade. Granted, she recovered and won, but that's not the type of trouble you want against a better striker in Holly Holm. Holm looked absolutely terrified and nervous in her UFC debut, so I assume those jitters will go away so she can make her run at the title here.
Holm, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
This is too much, too soon for Holm. Though her standup is obviously amazing, and this is a favorable matchup in that Reneau also prefers to exchange, Holm was unimpressive in her debut. Reneau is polished and ready. She'll pick apart Holm's hype train and show who's really ready.
Reneau, unanimous decision
James MacDonald
Holm didn’t quite make the impact we were expecting on her UFC debut. Her performance was fine, but it didn’t exactly have Ronda Rousey shaking in her boots. Reneau is the far superior grappler, so this comes down to whether she can get Holm down and keep her there. I’m not convinced the fight will play out in that fashion, though. I expect Holm to remain upright and strike her way to a decision.
Holm, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
As the lack of consensus demonstrates, this fight won't be a walk in the park for Holm. Reneau is an excellent competitor and is a viable underdog here. I'll still side with Holm, who will fight smart, pick up some points and get her second UFC win.
Holm, unanimous decision
Josh Thomson vs. Tony Ferguson
6 of 7
Sean Smith
With five straight wins, Ferguson has earned his shot at a ranked lightweight. Though he’s beaten other wrestlers, Ferguson will definitely face his toughest test in Thomson. El Cucuy has countered other wrestlers with constant submission attempts, but that isn’t likely to be as effective against Thomson, who has not been submitted in his 27 career bouts.
Thomson, unanimous decision
Riley Kontek
A lot of people are going to go with Tony Ferguson here, and for good reason. He has really proved lately that he belongs. I just can't do it. Why, you ask? Because you shouldn't sleep on Josh Thomson. He has consistently fought top opposition and has looked good doing it. It will be close, but he shall prevail.
Thomson, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
I'm tired of slumbering on Ferguson and getting burned for it. The well-rounded Ferguson will keep his win streak rolling over an uneven if talented fighter in Thomson.
Ferguson, unanimous decision
James MacDonald
This should be a fun fight. Ferguson has tons of promise and faces a stiff test against a cagey veteran like Thomson. Should he get the job done, it’ll be something of a coming-out party for the former The Ultimate Fighter winner. And you know that? I think he has the tools to get it done against this slightly gun-shy version of Thomson.
Ferguson, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
I've been skeptical of Ferguson from the outset of his UFC career, and I tend to pick against him whenever he's matched up with a solid opponent. It hasn't worked out well for me thus far. It'll probably be the sole reason he loses to Thomson, but what the heck? I'm finally getting in on a Ferguson win before it happens.
Ferguson, unanimous decision
Frank Mir vs. Todd Duffee
7 of 7
Sean Smith
At 36 years old, Mir probably doesn’t have a ton of fights left in him, but he showed he can still compete with the best when he stopped Antonio Silva with punches in February. Duffee is an athletic specimen and could blow through Mir with speed, but his chin has also been questioned, and any heavyweight in the world is in trouble if they end up on the ground with Mir inside the Octagon. I wouldn’t be shocked if Duffee ends this one quickly, but I also feel Mir has more ways to win, so I’m going with the former champion.
Mir, submission, Rd. 1
Riley Kontek
I'll admit that Frank Mir looked really good in his last bout against Big Foot Silva, but he's not in his prime anymore. We'll always have our memories of you breaking multiple arms, Frank. However, Duffee is too scary of a striker not to pick.
Duffee, knockout, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
Mir has had a great career by any measure, but that career is near its end. His chin will again be tested by one of the scariest pure knockout strikers in the division today. He will not pass the test.
Duffee, TKO, Rd. 1
James MacDonald
Prior to Mir’s last outing, I would have picked Duffee without hesitation. The former UFC heavyweight champion looked shot as a fighter. However, with the benefit of some time off to heal a few nagging injuries, he now looks more than capable of competing with the backside of the division’s top 10. Duffee is a dangerous striker, but he’s a little chinny and his grappling leaves something to be desired. For those reasons, I’m leaning toward Mir.
Mir, submission, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
I don't see how Mir takes Duffee to the mat, and I don't see him winning this fight on the feet. I also cannot envision his chin standing up to Duffee's fists. In short, I just don't see Mir lasting very long.
Duffee, knockout, Rd. 1
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