Who Goes No. 1 in 2026 NFL Draft If Arch Manning Doesn't Declare?

Texas' Arch Manning is already the biggest name in major college football. He's also the early favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft.

In the immortal words of Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friends."

Manning has yet to be a full-time starter at the collegiate level. His raw talent and surname are currently propping up expectations. At the same time, the Mannings are known for valuing the collegiate experience, with uncles Peyton and Eli both attending their respective universities for at least four years.

Plus, Cooper Manning and his wife, Ellen, have done everything in their power to normalize their son's upbringing.

“I think [the Longhorns program has] done a great job of protecting him, developing him and letting him be a regular kid as best you can," Cooper Manning told The Athletic's Bruce Feldman. "Now, when the time is right, you’re ready to go, you’re ready to go. Playing is good, but playing when you’re really ready and prepared usually works out better, in every league."

The odds of the latest Manning prodigy entering the 2026 NFL draft may be 50/50 at best.

When looking at the upcoming cycle, early projections still signal a strong crop near the top of the class. A handful of options, including a couple of quarterbacks, should be in the mix to be next year's top pick if Manning does or doesn't decide to enter the professional ranks after the upcoming campaign.

Top QB Options Not Named Manning

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Former Cal and current Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza

Multiple quarterbacks are already in the first-round conversation prior to the start of the 2025 campaign. They're viewed as prospects capable of being highly regarded, as long as they continue to build on what they've already achieved at the collegiate level.

However, two names have seemingly worked their way to the forefront for entirely different reasons.

Fernando Mendoza, who transferred from Cal to Indiana this spring, has a growing following. B/R scout Dame Parson ranks the junior prospect as the preseason QB1. He wrote:

"Mendoza is a prototypical pocket passer with functional mobility to break the pass rush's containment. On tape, Mendoza anticipates throwing lanes similar to an NFL quarterback. He anticipates the window opening before it opens. He throws to spots off his anticipation and meets his receiver with the football.

"Mendoza's accuracy is one of his best traits. He puts the football where his receivers can make plays on it. His ball placement leads receivers and allows them to gain yards after the catch. Post-snap, he plays the game well mentally and sees things quickly."

A season ago, the 6'5", 225-pound signal-caller threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns. The transfer landed in an offense that knows how to put up points. In fact, last year's Hoosiers squad ranked second in the nation by averaging 41.3 yards per game. Previous quarterback Kurtis Rourke was named second-team All-Big Ten.

As long as Mendoza improves with his pre-snap reads and pressure recognition, he could easily find himself atop the 2026 class.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers is a physically gifted quarterback prospect, with all the tools to make a run at the top spot.

"Sellers has great arm strength, which is necessary to drive throws between cover defenders. He can attack single coverage by pushing the ball down the field," Parson wrote. "Sellers is a dynamic athlete with the agility to force missed tackles in a phone booth. He turns negative plays behind or at the line of scrimmage into explosive plays down the field."

The 6'3", 240-pound redshirt sophomore has the size, strength, athleticism and arm talent to stun onlookers and NFL scouts. His upside is immense. Sellers is still a work in progress, though. He needs more reps to improve his pocket presence and anticipation when throwing.

Beyond Mendoza and Sellers, there's a solid group hoping for a Joe Burrow- or Jayden Daniels-like rise. Penn State's Drew Allar, Clemson's Cade Klubnik, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier and Baylor's Sawyer Robertson are possibilities.

Elite Offensive Linemen Aren't Sexy But They Are Valuable

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Miami's offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa

The NFL is starving for talented offensive linemen. Case in point, this past year's draft class saw three different offensive tackles selected in the top nine.

Despite the emphasis placed on the skill positions, good blockers are hard to find and are always viewed highly within league circles.

If no quarterback presents No. 1 overall capabilities throughout the upcoming cycle, a pair of offensive tackles could find themselves in elite territory. Two offensive tackles—Jake Long and Eric Fisher—have already entered that rarified air this millennium.

A new pair have the potential to be high-end starters in the NFL with the type of upside to demand a top-five selections. Miami's Francis Mauigoa and Alabama's Kadyn Proctor are in the mix thanks to their prototypical traits.

Mauigoa has been heralded since before he joined the Hurricanes program. The 5-star recruit stayed in state to play alongside his brother, who the New York Jets drafted in this year's fifth round, and started 26 straight games to start his collegiate career.

"He's striving for perfection, for absolute excellence," Miami coach Mario Cristobal said, per the Miami Herald's Jordan McPherson. "He just goes. He's got his foot on the gas. He is unbelievably fun to coach because every single day, he brings it, and he brings it with a great attitude."

The 6'6", near-340-pound lineman does play on the strong side. Despite the closing gap between the two tackle spots, some experience on Miami's blind side could help Mauigoa's draft status. Though his movement skills are obvious on either side.

Proctor has already started two seasons at left tackle. Another 5-star recruit, the 6'7", 360-pound lineman is a gargantuan people-mover with movement skills that belie his size.

Issues stem from consistency, or lack thereof. His physical tools are obvious. The upcoming campaign serves as an opportunity to hone his craft and refine his technique. NFL scouts will be watching closely to see the down-by-down variance within his game, because professional pass-rushers can take advantage of every little shortcoming.

Utah's bookends are worth watching as well, with Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu both deserving first-round consideration.

Pass-Rushers Are Always Held at a Premium

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Clemson defensive end T.J. Parker

The best to way to disrupt an elite quarterback is to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Pass-rushers are easily among the best athletes on a football field thanks to their combination of size, athleticism, burst and flexibility, hence why they are regularly taken near the top of the draft.

In fact, 11 pass-rushers have heard their names called among the top-five picks in the last 10 draft classes, including Abdul Carter with this year's third overall selection.

T.J. Parker has been a presence off the edge since his first day on Clemson's campus.

"You have to really have an abnormal level of maturity to be able to prepare and absorb and translate everything that's going on (as a freshman)," head coach Dabo Swinney told reporters in 2023. "He's just a very mature, focused kid that you would never think is a freshman."

The 6'3", 265-pound defender continued to build upon an impressive freshman campaign with 20 tackles for loss and 11 sacks as a true sophomore. During his first two seasons, he amassed 33 tackles for loss and 16.5 sacks. Much like a new wave of younger pass-rushers, Parker excels with the ability to convert speed to power and collapse a pocket.

Offenses are going to build game plans around Parker. If he continues to produce or affects games without putting up stats, he'll be in the top 2026 prospect conversation.

Auburn's Keldric Faulk presents a completely different skill set, but he's the type of prospect that NFL scouts tend to love.

Three years ago, Travon Walker worked his way to the top of the 2022 draft class based on his physical tools, style of play and remaining upside as a pass-rusher. Mykel Williams didn't quite crack the top 10 this year, but he experienced a similar trajectory. Faulk is this year's version of a dynamic and physical athlete who can move up and down the line of scrimmage and still provide the level of potential to get excited about what he can still become.

The 6'6", 270-pound defender showed marked improvement as a pass-rusher between his freshman and sophomore campaigns, going from one sack in 13 appearances to seven a year ago.

"When you coach a guy like Keldric, it’s one of those deals you realize is a coach's dream," defensive line coach Vontrell King-Williams said. "Love the kid. Love the competitor. Having him back in that room is another deal where you say it's priceless because he's not a dude that just talks; he actually does it."

NFL teams will always invest in pass-rushing potential and do so early. Parker and Faulk will be found on college football's marquee this fall.

Wild Card Whose Talent Supersedes His Positional Value

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Ohio State's Caleb Downs has a chance to be the No. 1 overall talent regardless of position on many 2026 NFL draft boards. He could become the most heralded safety prospect in NFL history.

Jamal Adams was the last safety to be drafted in the top 10, when the New York Jets chose him sixth in 2017. Eric Berry was the last to be a top-five selection, which occurred 15 years ago. Eric Turner became the highest-drafted safety ever, when the Cleveland Browns chose him with the second pick in the '91 class.

Downs is a special talent, and invoking those previous names should underline his status.

The 20-year-old accomplished nearly everything in his first two collegiate seasons. As a true freshman, Downs was named SEC Freshman of the Year and first-team All-SEC. He then transferred to Ohio State, where he helped his team win a national championship while capturing more individual honors as the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year, a first-team All-Big Ten honoree and an unanimous All-American.

Downs could have been a top-10 draft pick this past season had he been eligible. Now, he gets at least one more year at Ohio State despite being the best all-around safety prospect of a generation. For Downs, it's not what he accomplishes. Rather, it's how he helps his teammates get better.

“It has been a positive for me to be able to take a leadership role and helping people," he said during a spring-game interview. "Helping the guys to grow every day and I think that we have done that this spring. We have gotten better from where we started and there is more to do."

The 6'0", 205-pound defensive back can cover, displays tremendous ball skills, triggers downhill with a fury and shows preternatural instincts. As a safety, Downs hearing his name called with the No. 1 overall is a long shot. But he should be under consideration for the pick.