Fantasy Football's Potential League Winners, Sleepers and Busts for 2025

That time of year has finally arrived: The most wonderful time of the year in fantasy football.

With the Scott Fish Bowl now marking the unofficial beginning of fantasy draft season and live events taking place this past weekend in Las Vegas and Cincinnati, draft season has arrived.

Dynasty and best-ball formats have been drafting for some time, and it will still be a while before many redraft leagues conduct their drafts, especially the live ones. But regardless of when draft day is, fantasy managers who covet success are already knee-deep in draft prep.

And you thought you had left the days of homework behind. Sorry, the managers who have success are the ones who have already identified potential league-winners, singled out fantasy sleepers and red-flagged potential busts.

But just like that kid who wrote that paper for you in ninth grade (Seriously, reading The Scarlet Letter is like watching paint dry), your homework is already done here—with one player at each position who falls into the aforementioned categories.

And you don't have to slip me $10 under the bleachers after third period.

League-Winning QB: Drake Maye, New England Patriots

AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper

ADP: QB16

In many respects, Drake Maye's rookie season was unimpressive.

His 175.1 passing yards per game ranked 29th in the NFL last year. His 15 touchdown passes ranked 24th. He was 22nd in fantasy points among quarterbacks and 29th in fantasy points per game.

However, that was with a porous offensive line, no passing game weapons to speak of and an overmatched head coach in Jerod Mayo.

As Kendall Valenzuela wrote for Fantasy Life, much has changed for the 22-year-old in 2025, including his fantasy prospects for the season to come:

"For everything that the Patriots lacked in 2024, Drake Maye was actually a pleasant surprise for fantasy football. Maye averaged 223 passing yards and 36 rushing yards in 10 complete starts last season, and he finished as QB22 while averaging 13.6 points per game.

"There's a lot of meat left on the bone for Maye. Consider this: The Patriots came in dead last among NFL teams in supporting cast rankings. Also, his wide receivers ranked dead last in receiving yards (1,723) last season. So, considering that they have not only upgraded their offense but also hired a more seasoned head coach in Mike Vrabel, things should get better in the passing game.

"Then there's the rushing upside. In 2024, Maye averaged 4.9 rushes and 36.3 yards per game, but I'm here to tell you he is an exceptional runner and if he truly gets unleashed this season, then we can expect more from him."

It's that rushing upside that is especially appealing with Maye, who quietly ranked among the NFL's top-10 quarterbacks in rushing yards. He gets a substantial boost there and takes a step forward as a passer, and he could emerge as a viable weekly starter—and big-time fantasy value.

Sleeper QB: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

ADP: QB24

Bryce Young’s 2024 campaign was the story of two very different seasons.

The first chapter sucked—the 2023 No. 1 overall pick looked lost and was benched for a time for Andy Dalton.

But when Young got back into the starting lineup, he was a different player.

Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports believes the Alabama product's resurgence was as evident statistically as it was to anyone with decent eyesight:

“Young’s late-season resurgence was the story of the season for Panthers fans, and it was just as real in the spreadsheets as it was on tape. He was PFF's No. 7-graded passer from Week 8 onward. He had the second-highest Big Time Throw rate over that stretch and scored five rushing touchdowns in his final six games.

"Young was not making throws with this kind of confidence as a rookie. His top receivers down the stretch were 34-year-old Adam Thielen and UDFA rookie Jalen Coker, both of whom missed three games. Despite drastically increasing his ability to create explosive plays, Young didn’t concede more turnovers or sacks amidst his breakout. His pressure to sack rate of 14.9 percent and Turnover Worthy Play rate of 2.3 percent were both below his career averages. The sample of Young turning the corner is small, but the impact was massive."

From Week 12 on last year, Young was quietly ninth in fantasy points at the position. The addition of rookie first-rounder Tetairoa McMillan provides him (in theory) with a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver. And again, that rushing upside the QB showed in 2024 should appeal to fantasy managers.

With a low-end QB2 asking price, Young should appeal both to fantasy drafters who prefer to wait under center and superflex managers looking for an inexpensive second starter at the position.

Bust QB: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

ADP: QB6

There's no question Patrick Mahomes is a great NFL quarterback, arguably the best of his generation. By the time his career is over, he may well be regarded as the best signal-caller to ever play the game.

But NFL good and fantasy football good are not exactly the same thing.

And after a QB11 finish last year and QB8 the season before for the Kansas City star, Quincy Milton III of RotoBaller cautioned that many fantasy drafters are conflating the two:

"Mahomes has made a fantasy living on name value over the last couple of seasons, but has not produced since 2022. Mahomes has not thrown more than 27 touchdowns over the previous two seasons. In 2024, he threw for less than 4,000 yards for the first time in his career as a starter...

"Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the league, but he will need to prove that the Chiefs are returning to their high-flying offensive days before he is back in my fantasy lineup. His name value will inflate his draft stock into fantasy's top five or six quarterbacks. Why draft Mahomes when you could draft a value such as Bo Nix or Justin Herbert several rounds later?"

Now, Mahomes supporters will point to the return of Rashee Rice and the late-season emergence of Xavier Worthy as reasons why the six-time Pro Bowler can recapture his 5,000-yard upside of 2022.

But the Chiefs' offensive line remains a massive question mark, and Mahomes can't consistently attack defenses vertically if his protection breaks down. It's why they have resorted more to quick passes in recent years.

Kansas City doesn't need to go bombs away to win football games. And it cares a lot more about that than piling up stats.

League-Winning RB: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

ADP: RB16

There's a syndrome that strikes fantasy players each and every year, an insidious ailment that causes players who really shouldn't to drop on draft day: Team Sucks Syndrome.

TSS is the only reasonable explanation for why Alvin Kamara is being drafted outside the top-15 among running backs. And to be fair, the New Orleans Saints are all but certain to be terrible this year.

However, Kacey Kasem of Fantasy Six Pack still sees substantial value with the ninth-year veteran:

“Alvin Kamara went from playing with elite QB Drew Brees to playing with... QBs that make you say, 'No, please!' Somehow, the former Pro Bowler continues to produce. Last season, the running back was RB9 in total points and RB5 in points per game (PPR), averaging 19 points.

"Managers might be fading him due to his age (pushing 30) or because the Saints' offense is abysmal. Still, Kamara gets it done. He rushed 228 times for 950 yards and six scores in 2024, tacking on 68 catches for 543 yards and two receiving touchdowns.

"The back only tallied one single-digit PPR contest last season. Remember that 44-point explosion versus Dallas? I do. Not because I rostered him, but because I'm a Cowboys fan. The guy has been balling out for years, so this shouldn't have surprised me.

"Right now, you can get Kamara as late as the sixth round in some leagues. That is an insane return on investment for what he'll bring to the table. If you want to be aggressive and select him in the third round, I'm cool with that. He's a volume-driven, reliable PPR asset that can get you RB1 numbers without breaking the bank."

Kamara's 950 rushing yards last year was a career high. His 4.2 yards per carry was his best mark in that regard since 2020. And he is going to be a focal point of the New Orleans offense, regardless of who the quarterback is.

Don’t let TSS cloud your judgment and rob you of a potentially massive value in the backfield.

Sleeper RB: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks

AP Photo/Erin Hooley

ADP: RB38

Zach Charbonnet of the Seahawks and Tyler Allgeier of the Atlanta Falcons are in the same support group: Talented players who could start for a number of NFL teams who are stuck on the depth chart of their current one.

However, while Allgeier is buried behind Bijan Robinson in Atlanta, Jason Wood of Footballguys noted an argument can be made that Charbonnet is actually a better player than Kenneth Walker III.

"Charbonnet is a better offensive weapon than Ken Walker III, even if the Seahawks' usage suggests otherwise. Last year, Walker averaged 14.4 PPR points in his 11 starts, which would have ranked as RB21 over the full season. Charbonnet averaged 17.6 fantasy points in his six starts, which would have ranked as RB6.

"Walker has missed 10 games in three seasons, while Charbonnet has only missed one in two years. Perhaps most importantly, Charbonnet is a far better pass protector, which will be vital with Sam Darnold under center.

"Now, none of that ultimately matters if the coaches continue to favor Walker. But generally speaking, you want to draft backup running backs who have the potential to be every-week fantasy stars if an opportunity opens up. Charbonnet is among the best in that RB2 category as a handcuff, and there's even a case that he could end up the starter outright, even if Walker stays healthy."

Charbonnet averaged half a yard more per carry last year than Walker. He had a higher success rate than Walker, averaged more yards per reception than Walker and scored more times on the ground than Walker.

The 2023 second-rounder is more than just a handcuff back. He's the kind of player who can swing leagues if Walker goes down—or if Charbonnet outright usurps him as the starter in the Emerald City.

"Zero RB" drafters, rejoice.

Bust RB: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

ADP: RB1

Saquon Barkley had a fantastic 2024 season. He played a massive role in the Philadelphia Eagles' march to a championship, becoming the ninth player in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards in a season.

However he's doomed in 2025 for numerous reasons.

The first is last year's workload. Barkley had 378 touches a season ago, putting him squarely in the crosshairs of the "Curse of 370."

Since 2007, there have been 25 instances where a running back surpassed 370 touches in a season. Of that group, only two gained more total yardage the following year. An equal number saw an increase in PPR points. That's less than 10 percent who increased their production.

Over the last 10 years, the average decrease in fantasy production for a 370-touch running back the following year is a little over 49 percent.

Then, there's the "2K Club." Of the eight RBs to rush for 2,000 yards in a season, not one gained even 1,500 rushing yards the following year. Six of those backs missed time the following season. The average decline in rushing yards after a 2,000-yard campaign? 966 yards. Forty-seven percent.

But wait, there's more.

Per Jody Smith of Full Time Fantasy, since 2000, just two running backs (LaDainian Tomlinson and Derrick Henry) have led the league in rushing in back-to-back years. Only three of those rushing kings saw an increase in fantasy production. The average decline for the remaining 22 was almost 37 percent.

In other words, unless Barkley can buck three historical trends, he's likely to experience a significant decline in production in 2025. Based on those trends, that drop-off could easily be 40 percent or more.

And that's without taking into consideration the ridiculous "Madden curse."

League-Winning WR: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman

ADP: WR19

Why do we keep doing this?

Since Mike Evans turned 30 in August 2023, undervaluing the veteran wide receiver for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has become an annual ritual—despite the fact that he has never failed to hit 1,000 receiving yards in a season and has 10-plus touchdowns in more seasons than not.

Yes, he missed three games last year, but that didn't stop him from extending his NFL-record streak of 1,000-yard seasons to 11. He has reeled in at least 11 touchdowns in four of the past five years—a span in which he found the end zone a whopping 57 times.

Evans has never caught less than 70 passes. The last time he averaged less than 14 yards per reception was 2016. And he has been targeted at least 110 times in a season 10 times in 11 years.

Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros sees another WR1 campaign in the offing for the six-time Pro Bowler in 2025:

"Mike Evans has finished no lower than WR13 in fantasy points per game over the last four years, and he didn't show any signs of slowing down last year. While he has dealt with hamstring issues in each of the last three years, he has never played less than 14 games in any season. Last year, Evans ranked 23rd in target share, fifth in yards per route run, 16th in receiving yards per game, fourth in route win rate, and second in separation (per Fantasy Points Data). Evans is primed to produce as a WR1 again in 2025."

It's not hard to see why Brown feels that way. Evans has been a WR1 in total points four out of the past five years.

Yes, Chris Godwin will be back at some point and Tampa drafted Emeka Egbuka in Round 1 this year, but Evans has been so consistent and productive that landing him as a mid-range WR2 is a solid step toward building a fine group of wide receivers.

Sleeper WR: Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/Zach Bolinger

ADP: WR47

It's understandable that there isn't much fantasy enthusiasm surrounding the wide receivers in Indianapolis.

No Colts wideout finished inside the top 30 at his position a year ago, and 2025 brings with it a quarterback battle between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson.

Still, Heath Cummings of CBS Sports saw enough from Downs' 72/803/5 line and WR35 PPR finish a year ago to include the third-year pro on an early list of sleepers for 2025:

"I know people are scared of Anthony Richardson's passing and that is why Downs is ranked so low. The thing is, our sample size with the two of them together is really hard to parse because of injuries. It was a mixed bag, but Downs did deliver performances of 20.9, 19.4, and 15.1 with Richardson under center, so it wasn't all bad. They're both entering Year 3 of their career, and this could be a breakout year for both. Thankfully they are being drafted late enough to call them sleepers instead of breakouts."

It's Jones who has reportedly built a "significant lead" in the battle to start for the Colts. And that's actually probably a good thing for Downs and Michael Pittman Jr.

Say what you will about Danny Dimes (and New York Giants fans will no doubt say plenty), but he has a 64.1 career completion percentage—13.5 points higher than Richardson. His air yards per attempt are higher than his fellow QB's as well.

Downs is undervalued no matter who the Colts' quarterback is. But with Jones under center, he could be an even more sizable bargain.

Bust WR: Nico Collins, Houston Texans

AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann

ADP: WR7

When on the field, Nico Collins has shown he can be a highly productive fantasy asset. Last season, he was 10th among receivers in PPR points per game and surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight year despite missing five games.

But those missed contests marked the fourth time in as many seasons that the 26-year-old has been absent for multiple games.

And as Brandon Murchison of RotoBaller pointed out, if the Houston offense is similar to a year ago, trouble could be brewing for folks who spend an early pick on Collins in 2025:

"Collins’ efficiency dipped late in 2024, with his yards per catch falling from 16.2 in 2023 to 14.8, hinting at a possible decline in big-play ability that fantasy managers banking on WR7 status expect. The Texans’ run-heavy shift, averaging 29.1 rushing attempts per game in 2024, might limit passing volume, capping Collins at around 100-110 targets, well below the 120-plus elite WRs typically need. Finally, his injury history – missing five games in 2024 – raises durability concerns, limiting opportunities on the field and keeping him far from WR7 territory if the injury bug were to strike again."

Stefon Diggs is gone, and Tank Dell's status for this season is murky after his late injury last year. But the Texans added multiple passing-game weapons in the offseason, whether it was veteran Christian Kirk or rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.

Collins is a classic example of a player being drafted at his fantasy ceiling. To return real value, he will have to at least flirt with top-five numbers.

Given everything working against the 2024 Pro Bowler, that's far less likely than him getting hurt or not seeing enough targets to crack the top 10.

League-Winning TE: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Kareem Elgazzar

ADP: TE10

It's not hard to see why fantasy managers are skeptical about the prospects of pass-catchers for the Cleveland Browns.

The team has a quintet of question marks under center. There's a has-been in Joe Flacco. A never-was in Kenny Pickett. A pair of rookies in Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. And the NFL's worst contract ever in Deshaun Watson.

However, it's not like the QB situation in Cleveland hasn't been a disaster in recent years as well.

However, as Chad Workman of Fantasy Pros noted, tight end David Njoku has still managed to produce:

“Over the last three seasons, Njoku has quietly delivered TE6, TE6 and TE9 finishes in points per game scoring, but is being drafted as a borderline TE1/TE2. The Browns drafted Harold Fannin Jr., but a third-round rookie tight end is unlikely to make an immediate impact, especially as a 20-year-old.

"The Browns did nothing else to upgrade the pass-catching group, with Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman and Diontae Johnson leading the way. Njoku is primed for a heavy volume of targets, and that alone is enough to be optimistic for a TE1 season, but his skill set and recent production suggest he could be in store for a bigger season than anticipated."

Someone is going to have to catch passes this year for a Browns team that will be playing from behind approximately 73 minutes per game this year—and Njoku and Jeudy are the only proven and reliable the Cleveland QB carousel will have to throw to.

If that carousel settles on Flacco for any period of time, it's worth noting he peppered Njoku with targets when he was in Cleveland two years ago.

Sleeper TE: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Jeffrey McWhorter

ADP: TE16

Fantasy managers can be a fickle lot.

Last year, Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys was a breakout pick in some circles after a TE9 fantasy finish two years ago. But he all but vanished last year—less than 500 receiving yards and as many touchdowns as you had in an injury-marred third NFL season.

While speaking to reporters, Ferguson said 2024 did not go according to plan, but that just left him all the more motivated to have a solid 2025 campaign:

"My knee hurt, for sure. The concussion was weird. But I've said this before, if I'm on the field, I should be able to give it my all. I don't think I've ever played a full season and not scored a touchdown. That was something that I came into this offseason really working on. Just trying to really dial in on those things. That's the game of football, not everything is going to go perfect. Personally, I'm putting that in the past and I know now what I have to work on."

There’s no question CeeDee Lamb is top dog in the Dallas passing attack—he was sixth in the NFL in targets last year after leading the league in 2023. Dallas also traded for wideout George Pickens in the offseason.

But Ferguson topped 100 targets two years back, and it's not that difficult to imagine him doing so again. Given all the questions at running back, the Cowboys could easily be among the NFL's most pass-heavy teams in 2025.

Bust TE: T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

ADP: TE5

Back in 2022, T.J. Hockenson finished the season with more PPR points than any tight end in the NFC as a member of the Detroit Lions.

The following year in his first season in Minnesota, he again led all NFC tight ends in PPR points per game. But the ninth-year veteran tore his ACL late that season.

The Hockenson we saw last year just wasn't the same: 41 catches for 455 yards in 10 games. Given his asking price in drafts, fantasy managers are buying a rebound year.

However, Ryan Weisse of Footballguys isn't confident that rebound is coming:

"He posted the lowest catch rate of his career, failed to score a single touchdown, and averaged his fewest fantasy points per game since his rookie year.

"Now he enters 2025, another year removed from injury, but also with a new quarterback, rookie J.J. McCarthy, who has yet to take an NFL snap. Hockenson's current ADP appears to be driven more by name value and his peak production in 2022 and 2023 than by any genuine optimism about his role in this evolving offense. Even if he's healthier this year, the uncertainty surrounding McCarthy's development and the overall offensive efficiency should give drafters pause.

"Minnesota has plenty of mouths to feed, and without reliable red zone work or a proven connection with the quarterback, it's tough to project a bounce-back.

"In a deep tight end pool, Hockenson is being drafted near his ceiling. Given the risk, he's more likely to finish outside the Top 10 than return to elite status."

He has a point. There was no real indication last year that the Hockenson of old was coming back anytime soon.

The situation in Minnesota is vastly different than it was as recently as 2023. And there are a number of tight ends coming off draft boards later than the 27-year-old who arguably have better fantasy prospects this year.