5 Reasons Ace Bailey's 2025 NBA Draft Stock is Sliding

Ace Bailey was the No. 2 recruit (behind Cooper Flagg) in his high school class. He spent the bulk of his lone campaign at Rutgers in the third spot in most mock drafts (behind Flagg and Bailey's teammate, Dylan Harper).

But in the weeks between the NBA's draft lottery and the draft itself, Bailey's stock has tumbled. In their most recent mocks, ESPN, CBS and The Athletic all having him sliding to the Washington Wizards at No. 6.

And that has many wondering: Why the sudden and relatively dramatic shift?

We break down the biggest reasons for Bailey's potential fall below.

Refusal to Work Out

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The most obvious and perhaps most meaningful reason for Bailey's apparent slide is his (or his camp's) refusal to participate in the typical pre-draft process that most prospects go through.

Players looking to improve their position in the draft will often participate in dozens of group and individual workouts with teams around the league. The reasoning isn't hard to grasp. If you want a team higher than where you're projected to go to take you, it wouldn't hurt to impress their decision-makers in a workout.

Bailey, though, doesn't appear to subscribe to the theory. To date, he's rebuffed all invitations to go through this very typical process. Most recently, he had a workout scheduled with the Philadelphia 76ers, who are obviously picking third, that he canceled just before it was scheduled to take place.

Beyond depriving himself of the opportunity to sell teams on his abilities, this approach is just a bad look. Even if he isn't intending to give off this impression, refusing to do something that hundreds of other prospects have in recent weeks suggests to teams that Bailey believes he's above the process.

Lackluster Combine

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Bailey's measurements at the draft combine, particularly on things like his standing vertical, max vertical and time in the lane agility drill weren't necessarily bad, but they weren't awe-inspiring either.

Of those tested, he was middle of the pack in all of the above.

And while he was listed at 6'10" while playing for Rutgers, he measured at 6'7.5" without shoes at the combine.

Again, none of the above is bad or alarming. It just didn't do anything to move the needle in the right direction.

Perhaps more importantly, according to The Athletic's Sam Vecenie, Bailey's interviews at that event left something to be desired, too:

"His pre-draft interviews with teams at the NBA Draft Combine did not go particularly well, as it seemed like he went into them a bit ill-prepared for what was being asked of him, according to sources. They weren’t so bad as to knock him off of anyone’s board, but they raised further questions about what exactly has been happening with his pre-draft process, as he’s largely been shielded from teams."

As with individual workouts, the combine is a chance for prospects to improve their stock, and nothing from Bailey clearly did that.

Lack of Playmaking

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Ideally, if you're spending a top-three or even top-five pick on a prospect, you want him to be able to impact the game in multiple ways.

Bailey may check that box, at least partially. He had respectable rebounding, block and steal rates, but his passing numbers should raise at least a little concern.

On the season, he averaged 14.7 field-goal attempts, 2.0 turnovers and just 1.3 assists.

Put another way, among the 173 Division I players with 500-plus minutes and a usage percentage that matched or exceeded Bailey's, Bailey was tied for 164th in assist percentage.

Certainly, Bailey's role and the fact that the team lacked talent after he and Harper contributed to his lack of helpers, but assist numbers that low can indicate a lack of vision and feel for the game.

Scoring is important, but so is having players who put team above self.

A Tough Shot Maker Who Didn't Light It Up

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Another potentially concerning number: among the 1,103 Division I players who took at least 100 three-pointers this season, Bailey was tied for 664th in true shooting percentage.

His 34.6 three-point percentage was right around the average for the nation. And his 69.2 free-throw percentage doesn't scream knockdown shooter, either.

Again, the caveat about his role and teammates applies. And it's worth noting that Bailey's shot diet more often featured contested or otherwise tough shots that most college players are instructed to pass up.

But most high-end shooting prospects enter the draft with better shooting numbers than Bailey's. And the fact that he so often had to take difficult shots against NCAA defenses could be a concern. The level of defense he's going to face is about to skyrocket.

Others are Rising

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In some ways (like refusing to work out and struggling to wow anyone at the combine), Bailey has sort of opened the door for this, but the rise of other prospects has definitely impacted Bailey's position.

This is sort of the glass-half-full view of Bailey's stock. It could have as much to do with players like Kon Knueppel, Tre Johnson, V.J. Edgecombe and more impressing teams as it does with Bailey avoiding them.

And, to be sure, all of the above is not to suggest that Bailey is unworthy of a high pick or on track to be some kind of bust. If you watch him on the right night or in the right possession, you can see why he was so highly touted coming out of high school.

The idealized version of Bailey is a dynamic, multipositional defender who can swing a game with his outside shooting. And if this slide allows some team outside the top five to land that idealized Bailey, it'll be happy others were thrown off him prior to the draft.