Re-Thinking All 30 MLB Teams Based on 2025 Preseason Projections
With the midpoint of the 2025 Major League Baseball season less than a week away, how is each team comparing to what was the general consensus three months ago?
While the Detroit Tigers are on track to win nearly 20 more games than expected in 2025, both the Atlanta Braves and Colorado Rockies are pacing toward roughly 20 more losses than anticipated.
For each of the 30 teams, we've compared their preseason win total lines to their current 162-game pace (based on winning percentage) to determine who's roughly on track, who's overachieving and who's underachieving.
Teams pacing for within four games (in either direction) of their preseason win total are considered to be meeting expectations. Nine teams fall into that bucket, 10 have fallen short of what they were supposed to be and 11 are exceeding expectations.
Before we dive in, let's make it clear that we aren't necessarily expecting the overachievers to fade, nor the underachievers to rally from their disappointing starts. Those categorizations are based solely on how the team's current record compares to what it should be pacing at.
Teams are presented in alphabetical order by location.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
Record: 38-37
Preseason Win Total: 86.5
Current Pace: 82.1
Verdict: Underachieving
It doesn't much feel like Arizona's season is going according to plan, but the Snakes only narrowly missed the "meeting expectations" designation after climbing back above .500 with back-to-back wins.
Their bats have been more than adequate, particularly those of Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. Carroll, in particular, would be a lock for some down-ballot NL MVP votes if those were due today.
Alas, no amount of money spent on pitching can seem to save this franchise. At least Corbin Burnes was faring quite well before his injury, but Arizona is now spending a combined $80M this season for Eduardo Rodriguez's ($20M) near 6.00 ERA, while Burnes ($32.5M) and Jordan Montgomery ($22.5M) recover from Tommy John surgeries and while Madison Bumgarner ($5M deferred) works on his ranch.
Athletics
2 of 30
Record: 32-46
Preseason Win Total: 71.5
Current Pace: 66.4
Verdict: Underachieving
Six weeks into the season, the A's were one of the pleasant surprises of this 2025 campaign, sitting at 20-16, half a game ahead of the Yankees and a full game ahead of the Phillies.
After that walk-off win against the Mariners on Cinco De Mayo, however, the A's entered Thursday with the worst record in baseball. Yes, at 10-30, they had been even worse than the Colorado Rockies (11-29), and still several games worse than the hapless Washington Nationals and their 11-game losing streak.
The A's bats have been fine, and Denzel Clarke is doing all he can out in center field. But they allowed 272 runs in those 40 games, which is a 162-game pace of 1,102. If maintained for a full season, that would be the first instance of at least 1,000 runs allowed since the 1999 Colorado Rockies—who gave up 1,028 back when steroids were all the rage and three years before they started using humidors at Coors Field.
Atlanta Braves
3 of 30
Record: 34-40
Preseason Win Total: 93.5
Current Pace: 74.4
Verdict: Underachieving
Though Atlanta is undeniably showing signs of life over the past 10 days, including a sweep of the New York Mets, the Braves remain laughably behind preseason win total pace, barely playing .500 baseball since that infamous 0-7 start to the year.
To be on track for 93.5 wins, they should already be at 43, not 34.
They're not too far gone in the wild card picture, though, and they do have a +20 run differential for the season. If you had to pick one currently sub-.500 team to right the ship and make the playoffs, it's either Atlanta or Texas. However, that doesn't change the fact that this team is a far cry from where it should be, 11 games back in a division it was supposed to win.
Baltimore Orioles
4 of 30
Record: 33-42
Preseason Win Total: 87.5
Current Pace: 71.3
Verdict: Underachieving
Baltimore has been considerably more than competent over the past month, winning 17 of its last 25 games, which extrapolates to a 110-win pace. Gunnar Henderson is hitting well and Charlie Morton seems to have discovered the fountain of youth for a team that swept the Mariners, Angels and White Sox.
Unfortunately, that 25-game stretch comes on the heels of a season-opening 50-game stretch in which the O's were on pace for 52 wins while we all dreamed up potential trades for the likes of Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins and Zach Eflin.
We shall see which version of this club shows up for the second half of the season, but no one expected the Orioles to get comfortable back in the AL East basement where they dwelled for much of 2017-22.
Boston Red Sox
5 of 30
Record: 40-37
Preseason Win Total: 86.5
Current Pace: 84.1
Verdict: Meeting Expectations
It's frankly a bit comical that the Red Sox roughly are who we thought they would be, considering the sheer volume of content they've given us over the past seven months.
They've recently gone through a stretch of roster upheaval that included trading Rafael Devers to San Francisco and sending Kristian Campbell back to Worcester. They're also still waiting for Alex Bregman and Masataka Yoshida to return to a lineup that remains pretty loaded even without any of those four bats.
Whether there's enough pitching beyond Garrett Crochet to get to October, though, is the big question. They invested heavily on that front this offseason, but the Walker Buehler signing has been a great big swing and a miss, while Tanner Houck went from an All-Star last year to a disaster this year.
Chicago Cubs
6 of 30
Record: 45-30
Preseason Win Total: 85.5
Current Pace: 97.2
Verdict: Overachieving
Whether the Cubs will be able to re-sign Kyle Tucker this offseason has already been a daily talking point, but he has been everything the Cubs hoped he would be when they gave up Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski for what might be just one year of his services.
While Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong have anchored one of the best top-to-bottom lineups in the majors, the Cubs have gotten more than enough pitching to get by, particularly from the veterans in their bullpen.
Ryan Pressly initially struggled, but he went six weeks without allowing a run prior to a blown save on Friday afternoon. Meanwhile the likes of Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz, Chris Flexen and Brad Keller have been just as stingy.
Chicago White Sox
7 of 30
Record: 24-52
Preseason Win Total: 53.5
Current Pace: 51.2
Verdict: Meeting Expectations
As a reminder, "meeting expectations" isn't necessarily a good thing, when those expectations were "worst record in the American League by a substantial margin."
To their credit, the White Sox are a bit better than last year's historic ineptitude. However, they remain every bit the AL Central basement dweller we expected them to be, presently 13.5 games back of fourth place in the division.
Quite unlike the considerably worse Colorado Rockies, though, at least Chicago appears to have identified some long-term potential, with several rookies performing admirably. Shane Smith and Chase Meidroth have been considerable positives, and at least Edgar Quero is batting .276 while we await his first career home run.
Cincinnati Reds
8 of 30
Record: 39-37
Preseason Win Total: 78.5
Current Pace: 83.1
Verdict: Overachieving
Infielders not named Elly De La Cruz have been painfully underwhelming for the Reds, but TJ Friedl has had a big bounce back year in center while the starting rotation has blossomed into an upper-echelon group out of seemingly nowhere.
Tough to say how much of it can be attributed to Terry Francona's presence in the dugout. However, save for his initial foray into managerial work with the Phillies before the turn of the century, Tito always did have a knack for getting his teams to exceed expectations.
Some good news for a change on the injury front would be great here. No Hunter Greene, Noelvi Marte or Austin Hays has made this a serious uphill battle to remain relevant.
Cleveland Guardians
9 of 30
Record: 37-37
Preseason Win Total: 82.5
Current Pace: 81.0
Verdict: Meeting Expectations
José Ramírez is well on his way to what ought to be his eighth top-10 finish for AL MVP in the past nine seasons.
But now that Steven Kwan has cooled off from his torrid start, batting .182 in Cleveland's first 15 games played in June, would Ramírez's supporting cast please stand up?
Aside from the star at third base, they've been pretty mediocre across the board, particularly in the pitching department. Tanner Bibee and Emmanuel Clase have both bounced back from brutal starts to the season, but every Guardian who has made multiple starts this season has a FIP north of 4.20.
Colorado Rockies
10 of 30
Record: 17-59
Preseason Win Total: 58.5
Current Pace: 36.3
Verdict: Underachieving
The only teams with a sub-60 preseason win total were the Rockies and the White Sox (53.5).
And yet, the Rockies have been so terrible that even after a pair of three-game winning streaks in Miami and in Washington earlier this month, they are further behind pace than any other team, on track to fall 22 shy of an already embarrassingly low win total.
There has been a debate as to whether Hunter Goodman or Jake Bird ought to represent Colorado at the All-Star Game, but the most apropos representation of this team would be Antonio Senzatela, who ranks dead last in the majors in losses, hits allowed and earned runs allowed.
Detroit Tigers
11 of 30
Record: 48-29
Preseason Win Total: 83.5
Current Pace: 101.0
Verdict: Overachieving
Aside from the White Sox as the obvious pick for last place, there wasn't supposed to be any separation in the AL Central. Minnesota's win total was 84.5. Detroit and Kansas City were tied right behind the Twins at 83.5. And Cleveland was just one further back at 82.5.
So much for that four-way photo finish, though, as the Tigers have opened up the biggest lead in any division, on pace to surpass their preseason win total before the end of August.
Their only surefire All-Star is Tarik Skubal, but they have gotten solid production throughout the lineup, rotation and bullpen. They'll likely look to add a bat at short and/or third ahead of the deadline, but this squad is already well-constructed to vie for a World Series.
Houston Astros
12 of 30
Record: 44-32
Preseason Win Total: 87.5
Current Pace: 93.8
Verdict: Overachieving
In what seems to be annual Houston fashion, getting out to a slow start to the season was merely a speedbump on their road to an AL West crown.
Granted, things were never nearly as dire as they were last season, when the Astros started out 12-24 only to go 76-49 the rest of the way. But they were 17-18 at virtually the same juncture this season and have since gone an MLB-best 27-14, turning what was a fourth-place, four-game deficit in the division into a first-place, five-game lead.
What's ridiculous about this particular turn around is that the three highest-paid players on the roster—Jose Altuve, Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez—have each amounted to a negative bWAR thus far. They've also had to cobble together a rotation, waiting for Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and Spencer Arrighetti to make their (possibly all in July) returns from the IL. Kind of feels like Houston has only just begun to peak.
Kansas City Royals
13 of 30
Record: 38-38
Preseason Win Total: 83.5
Current Pace: 81.0
Verdict: Meeting Expectations
Things were looking promising enough for the Royals through 40 games, starting out 24-16 and trailing only the Tigers in the American League standings at the end of play on May 9.
Their bats have been anything but fine since that strong start, though, averaging below 3.2 runs while losing 22 of their next 34 games.
Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino were hitting well for much of that rough stretch, but the two-man show just hasn't been enough. It has become even more amazing in hindsight that Bobby Witt Jr. was able to single-handedly carry this offense to the playoffs last season.
Los Angeles Angels
14 of 30
Record: 36-39
Preseason Win Total: 71.5
Current Pace: 77.8
Verdict: Overachieving
Of the six teams who were effectively declared dead before the season began—White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Nationals, A's and Angels—this is the only one with at least somewhat of an October pulse.
And some ride it has been, with the Angels all over the map this season. They went from 9-5 to 12-19. They clawed back to 25-25, only to immediately plummet to 26-32. But now they're hovering a bit below .500 as we near the midpoint of the season.
The negative-61 run differential suggests they have no business being in the mix for a playoff spot, as does the fact that they are bottom five in the majors in both BB% and K%, both at the plate and on the mound. But they've had a 2023 Miami Marlins-like knack for eking out wins, sitting at 15-6 in one-run games with a perfect 5-0 mark in extra innings affairs prior to Friday night's 10-inning loss to Houston.
Los Angeles Dodgers
15 of 30
Record: 47-30
Preseason Win Total: 103.5
Current Pace: 98.9
Verdict: Underachieving
Much like their NL West brethren in the desert, it's hard to believe the Dodgers are even close to meeting expectations, as the underwhelming (to put it lightly) pitching staff has almost overshadowed the best offense in baseball.
Heading into play on Saturday, though, Freddie Freeman was leading the NL in batting average, Will Smith was leading the NL in on-base percentage, Shohei Ohtani was leading the NL in slugging and OPS and the Dodgers had the best record in the NL.
That much isn't surprising. And with all of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki and Blake Treinen possibly returning in the next month, perhaps the pitching will be competent enough to get this team to 104 wins after all.
Miami Marlins
16 of 30
Record: 30-44
Preseason Win Total: 63.5
Current Pace: 65.7
Verdict: Meeting Expectations
Kind of funny to go straight from the underachieving 47-win Dodgers to the 30-win Marlins being marginally ahead of schedule. But the Fish are who we expected them to be, even with Sandy Alcantara only recently beginning to resemble his old self.
Agustín Ramírez looks like the real deal with 11 home runs 50 games into his MLB career, while both Dane Myers and Kyle Stowers have been pleasant surprises as late-blooming outfielders.
As a result, what had been the lowest-scoring offense in the NL last season is at least treading water this year. The pitching is still pretty rough as a whole, though, for a team that has a worse run differential (-85) than the White Sox (-69).
Milwaukee Brewers
17 of 30
Record: 41-35
Preseason Win Total: 83.5
Current Pace: 87.3
Verdict: Meeting Expectations
For the umpteenth consecutive year, the Brewers seemed to lose more talent in the offseason than they gained, but it just keeps not mattering.
They've won at least 86 games in each of the past seven 162-game seasons, and after exploding for 17 runs for the third time this season on Friday night, they're on track to do it again.
The Cubs have gotten pretty comfortable atop the NL Central, but the Brew Crew still has series against Pittsburgh, Colorado, Miami and Washington before the All-Star Break, with Brandon Woodruff nearing his 2025 debut, no less. There are worse futures bets than the Brewers at +600 to win the division.
Minnesota Twins
18 of 30
Record: 37-38
Preseason Win Total: 84.5
Current Pace: 79.9
Verdict: Underachieving
Three cheers to Byron Buxton, who is on track for around 30 home runs and 25 stolen bases. He typically has been quite productive when healthy throughout his career, but perhaps he'll play in at least 103 games for the first time since 2017.
What a tale of three seasons it has been for Minnesota thus far, though.
The Twins started out 7-15. They won 22 of their next 29, including a 13-game winning streak. But then they endured yet another 22-game stretch with a 7-15 record.
The net result is the roughly .500 record we expected before the season, but quite a circuitous route they took to get there. With both Pablo López and Royce Lewis out indefinitely, though, we'll see if they can continue to tread water along the fringe of the playoff picture.
New York Mets
19 of 30
Record: 45-31
Preseason Win Total: 90.5
Current Pace: 95.9
Verdict: Overachieving
Expectations for the Mets were already pretty high after the historic signing of Juan Soto, but what was supposed to be a 90-ish win club is on track for slightly closer to 100, even amid a seven-game losing skid.
The trio of Soto, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor has been stellar, perhaps collectively bound for the All-Star Game, even though this offense as a whole has been a bit underwhelming.
Rather, it was the pitching that paced New York to its 45th win before suffering its 25th loss. They're still waiting on Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea to make their 2025 debuts, but the Clay Holmes signing has been fantastic thus far, and Kodai Senga was leading the majors with a 1.47 ERA when he suffered his hamstring injury.
They've allowed at least six runs seven times already in June, though. They did so only three times in their first 33 games.
New York Yankees
20 of 30
Record: 43-32
Preseason Win Total: 89.5
Current Pace: 92.9
Verdict: Meeting Expectations
Barely a week ago, the Yankees had the third-best record in baseball, on pace for 101.6 wins. But after seven losses in the span of eight games—scoring a combined total of nine runs in those losses—they've plummeted back to earth in a hurry in an AL East that suddenly looks wide open.
They do still have nearly the best run differential (+99) in the majors, though, as the combination of Aaron Judge at the plate and Max Fried and Carlos Rodón on the mound has been pretty lethal.
With both Giancarlo Stanton and Luke Weaver returning from the IL in the past week, things could turn back around in a hurry. 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil cannot return soon enough, though.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
Record: 46-30
Preseason Win Total: 91.5
Current Pace: 98.1
Verdict: Overachieving
Just in the past five weeks, the Phillies have endured a four-game losing streak and a five-game losing streak, while also putting together a five-game winning streak and a nine-game winning streak.
In the process, they went from 2.5 games behind the Mets to 3.0 games ahead, down to 5.5 games behind and then surged back ahead by a one-game margin with a head-to-head win Friday night.
In other words, it has been a wild ride, but it has been generally pointing in the right direction and then some. And that's despite underwhelming a bit on offense, with only Kyle Schwarber on pace to finish the season with at least 20 home runs. They could really run away with the NL East if some of those bats heat up.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
Record: 30-47
Preseason Win Total: 77.5
Current Pace: 63.1
Verdict: Underachieving
In 2018, Jacob deGrom made 28 quality starts, but only got 10 wins to show for it. It didn't stop him from winning the NL Cy Young, but it was a masterclass in thriving in the face of horrific run support, the Mets scoring three or fewer runs in 21 of his 32 starts.
Paul Skenes is in a similar boat on a Pirates team where he may well end the season with more WAR than the rest of the roster combined. He has four wins to show for his 12 quality starts, receiving three runs of support or fewer in 10 of 16 appearances.
Can't imagine that run support is going to get any better after a trade deadline at which they'll presumably trade away what few non-Skenes assets of value they possess.
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
Record: 40-35
Preseason Win Total: 85.5
Current Pace: 86.4
Verdict: Meeting Expectations
At 26-32 since their 14-3 start to the season, the Padres have felt a bit like a slowly sinking ship for some time now.
But was that benches-clearing scuffle against the Dodgers on Thursday night just what the doctor ordered?
It was at almost this exact same point last season when they were 41-41 before a heated three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals lit a fire inside them for an MLB-best 52-28 record the rest of the way.
Maybe they can do the same this year, even with a starting rotation that is in shambles. But it's notable that they wouldn't be in the postseason field as of Saturday morning.
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
Record: 42-34
Preseason Win Total: 80.5
Current Pace: 89.5
Verdict: Overachieving
After a winter in which they more or less just swapped in Willy Adames' big contract for Blake Snell's big salary (and took a $15M flyer on Justin Verlander), the understandable expectation for San Francisco was yet another year hovering around .500, as had been the case in each of the past three seasons, as well as five of the past six.
However, a bullpen which allowed a mediocre 3.96 ERA in 2024 has somehow blossomed into an absolute force at an MLB-best 2.60 ERA against this season.
Couple that with Robbie Ray (who made just seven starts last season with a 4.70 ERA) rediscovering his Cy Young form while Jung Hoo Lee (.641 OPS in 37 games played last season) has begun to live up to his nine-figure contract and you've got a Giants club that has been much better than anticipated—and that should only get better with the recent acquisition of Rafael Devers.
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
Record: 38-36
Preseason Win Total: 84.5
Current Pace: 83.2
Verdict: Meeting Expectations
Cal Raleigh has officially crossed the hurdle from one of the best hitting seasons ever by a catcher to simply one of the best hitting seasons, period. After two more dingers at Wrigley Field on Friday, he's on pace to finish the year with 63.5 home runs.
But might Seattle squander his historic campaign due to limited other offensive production and a pitching staff that has taken a big step backward from last season?
With both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert healthy for the first time all year, it certainly feels like they could be gearing up for a big run. We'll see if Julio Rodríguez feels the same way and starts getting his batting numbers back up to snuff.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
Record: 41-35
Preseason Win Total: 76.5
Current Pace: 87.4
Verdict: Overachieving
Though the Cardinals have been one of the biggest overachievers of the year, their gameplan heading into the trade deadline is presently as clear as mud—close enough to be a buyer under normal circumstances, but probably more likely to sell in light of all the impending free agents they could try to flip for prospects.
Fittingly after all the offseason scuttlebutt involving Nolan Arenado, what they ultimately decide to do may well hinge upon his play over the next six weeks. If he heats back up and the Cardinals go on a tear with series against each of the Pirates, Rockies, Nationals and Marlins between now and the trade deadline, maybe they go for it.
Even if they do end up selling, though, they might get to 77 wins anyway.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
Record: 42-34
Preseason Win Total: 81.5
Current Pace: 89.5
Verdict: Overachieving
At what point do the sports books start just adding five wins to whatever the model tells them to expect from the Rays?
According to past lines captured by Sports Odds History, Tampa Bay has hit the over in 12 of the past 17 seasons, winning a cumulative total of 65 more games than it was "supposed" to. In both number of overs and number of total wins over, the 2008-24 Rays are alone in first place.
So, of course they're exceeding expectations yet again. Despite the third-lowest payroll in the league, they have the best record in the majors dating back to May 20 (21-8), averaging better than six runs per game with Junior Caminero, Brandon Lowe and Jonathan Aranda raking on a nightly basis.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
Record: 37-39
Preseason Win Total: 85.5
Current Pace: 78.9
Verdict: Underachieving
Texas' pitching has been exquisite, led by the three-headed force of Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle. The Rangers have allowed fewer runs than any other team at a bit less than 3.4 per game.
The previous franchise record for runs allowed in a non-truncated season was 609 in 1983, but they're on track to allow fewer than 550 this year.
However, Texas inexplicably has one of the least productive offenses in the majors and has already lost nine games in which it allowed two or fewer runs. Those bats desperately need to wake up before they end up repeating what the Mariners did last season, missing the playoffs in spite of arguably the best pitching staff in baseball.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
Record: 40-35
Preseason Win Total: 78.5
Current Pace: 86.4
Verdict: Overachieving
The preseason expectation that Toronto would be a sub-.500 team always was a bit strange, given how aggressive this team was in the offseason.
They failed to get Juan Soto or even Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman despite pursuing all three, but they made quite a few significant acquisitions in Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman, Max Scherzer, Andrés Giménez and Myles Straw.
With the exception of the glovework of Giménez and Straw, though, not one of those additions has provided value above replacement. And yet, unheralded players like Ernie Clement and Addison Barger have helped pace the Blue Jays to within shouting distance of first place in a division in which they were projected to finish in dead last.
If Santander and Scherzer get back from the IL soon and start actually contributing to the cause, even better.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
Record: 31-45
Preseason Win Total: 72.5
Current Pace: 66.1
Verdict: Underachieving
This was a much different story three weeks ago. The Nationals ended May just two games below .500, on pace for 78.2 wins.
But after losing 14 of their first 16 games of June—including six in a row at home against the Marlins and Rockies—it's back to the drawing board for the 2019 World Series champions who appear destined for a sixth consecutive season with a sub-.440 winning percentage. (Davey Martinez still having this job might be the most generous post-WS grace period of all-time.)
At least James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams have been revelations. (Imagine if they hadn't traded Juan Soto for that trio and more.) Let's see how they manage to build around those stars moving forward.
