5 Ways the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery Could Impact Trade and Free Agency Markets

There was chaos in the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery as the New York Islanders and Utah Mammoth both made huge jumps up the draft board.

The Islanders moved up nine spots from the No. 10 pick to the No. 1 overall pick, while the Mammoth moved up 10 spots to go from No. 14 to No. 4 overall.

That movement also pushed several teams a couple of spots down the draft board.

After the 2024 lottery saw no movement and simply followed the chalk, it was a complete 180 in terms of the results.

Now that we know where the lottery teams are picking, let’s take a look at some teams that may be most impacted by the results and how the lottery could help shape the free-agent and trade markets.

Could Noah Dobson Be on the Move?

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The New York Islanders do not yet have a general manager to make these decisions, but it is still worth wondering whether their lottery win could lead to a blockbuster move regarding defenseman Noah Dobson.

Now that they have the top pick, there is a very good chance they are going to use it on defenseman Matthew Schaefer. He has become the near-consensus pick to go No. 1 overall and has a chance to be a bona fide No. 1 defender who can play big minutes across all situations.

That could give the Islanders some options as they figure out what to do with Dobson, given the big decision they have to make regarding him this offseason.

How much are the Islanders going to be comfortable paying Dobson, given that he is coming off a down year offensively that saw him record just 39 points in 71 games? That is a significant drop from what he did a year ago (when he had 70 points in 79 games) and one of the worst full-season outputs of his career.

Is that simply a down year?

Or are there going to be doubts about his ability to produce at a top-pairing level moving forward?

If the Islanders were confident he could be a 60-70 point player, the decision to pay him would be a little easier.

But now that they have the opportunity to add Schaefer, and given that they have some defensive depth with very little offensive depth, there could be a window here for them to avoid paying that big contract and attempt to acquire some scoring depth in a blockbuster trade.

It’s something the new GM should seriously consider

Will the Columbus Blue Jackets Swing for a Big trade?

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The Columbus Blue Jackets will be one of the most fascinating teams to watch this offseason.

They took a huge step forward during the 2024-25 season and remained in the playoff race the whole way, they have a great young core of talent that is rapidly getting better, they are going to enter the offseason with more than $40 million in available salary cap space, and they are set to have two picks in the top 20 of this year's draft class.

Along with their pick at No. 14, they also have the Minnesota Wild's pick (No. 20 overall) that they acquired in the David Jiricek trade earlier this season.

They should seriously consider moving one of those picks for immediate NHL help this season.

The Blue Jackets are swimming in young forward talent, but still had some pretty significant flaws when it came to their ability to prevent goals. Both from a defensive and goaltending standpoint. One of those picks could be some pretty attractive trade bait to help fix at least one of those issues.

We saw first-round picks get moved a year ago for goalies Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark, with both of them playing big roles in getting their new teams (New Jersey and Ottawa) back into the playoffs.

Is there a goalie who could make a similar impact for Columbus?

Or a potential move for a defenseman with the team set to potentially lose Ivan Provorov in free agency?

They have options and cap flexibility to swing big.

What Are the New York Rangers Going to Do?

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After a bitterly disappointing season that saw the New York Rangers go from the Presidents' Trophy to missing the playoffs, they shockingly found themselves in the NHL Draft Lottery.

Now that general manager Chris Drury has landed the No. 12 pick, he has a couple of big decisions.

The first: Does he keep the pick, or does he send it to the Pittsburgh Penguins so he can hang on to the Rangers' 2026 unprotected first-rounder?

In the trade that saw the Rangers acquire veteran forward J.T. Miller from the Vancouver Canucks, they sent a conditional 2025 first-round pick back (the Canucks later traded that pick to the Penguins for defenseman Marcus Pettersson and forward Drew O'Connor). The condition on that pick was that if this year's selection is in the top 13, the Rangers could keep it and instead send their 2026 pick with no protections.

The risk in doing so would be that if the Rangers do not bounce back next season, they could be sending a potential lottery pick to a divisional rival in a draft class that includes Gavin McKenna and a couple of other potential franchise-changing players at the top.

But the Rangers are probably not anticipating being worse next season (especially after hiring new head coach Mike Sullivan) and could see the No. 12 overall pick as a very valuable asset they may not be able to get in future seasons.

The second decision: Assuming they keep the No. 12 pick, do they actually make the selection, or do they try to trade it for more immediate help?

Even though the Rangers might still see themselves as a contender next season, this is still a roster that is full of holes. They need a No. 1 center, they need scoring depth, and they need more defensive help. That pick could be a valuable asset in getting help in at least one of those spots, and could have more value to them as a trade chip than an actual draft pick.

Could Any Top-10 Picks Get Moved?

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It is not very common to see teams move picks in the top 10 of the draft for any reason, and especially not outright for more immediate NHL help.

But if there were ever a year that sort of thing could happen, this could be the one. Especially given the teams that are occupying picks in that range, and given that this draft class doesn't have many can't-miss prospects at the top.

Specifically, we're looking at teams like Nashville (No. 5), Philadelphia (No. 6), Boston (No. 7), Seattle (No. 8), Buffalo (No. 9) and Anaheim (No. 10) that could be in the market to swing a deal for NHL help.

All of those teams are in a situation where they could -- or perhaps should -- be looking to dramatically improve at the NHL level this season. Nashville and Boston are still theoretically in win-now modes even if their 2024-25 seasons were failures. Buffalo has to be feeling pressure after missing the playoffs for a 14th consecutive season, while teams like Anaheim and Philadelphia should just be ready to take big steps forward in their rebuilds.

Sharks Should Make Big Investment in Defense

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The bad news for the San Jose Sharks is that, despite finishing with the worst record in the NHL for the second straight season, they did not get the No. 1 overall pick and will not have a chance to select defenseman Matthew Schaefer to add to their rebuild.

The good news is, in a weird way, that should help clarify their offseason a little bit.

By dropping from No. 1 down to No. 2 overall, they should know they are going to be in a position to draft arguably the top forward in the draft, which is likely to be Michael Misa. Combined with Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund and some of their other emerging young prospects, they are going to be in a pretty good position offensively when it comes to emerging stars. There is going to be a strong core of forwards in place long-term.

That should open the door for them to spend big in free agency and on the trade market on their defense, which needs major help from both a short-term and long-term perspective.

The UFA market is not exactly great when it comes to the defense, but there are some intriguing players in Aaron Ekblad and Vladislav Gavrikov potentially available. They also have multiple first-round picks in 2025 and 2026 (they have Dallas' first-round pick in 2025 and Edmonton's in 2026) that could be dangled as trade bait for younger, cost-controlled players still under team control.

They are going to have a chance to add another potential star forward in the draft. They need to use free agency and the trade market to address the defense.