2025 NBA Playoffs Eastern and Western Conference Finals Bold Predictions
The NBA's Final Four is officially set.
The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks represent a surprising matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals, while the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are set to do battle in the West.
If you love parity, these conference finals are for you.
The Knicks are the most recent title winners of this bunch, taking home the 1972-73 championship. The three other franchises have never won an NBA title.
Before the Wolves-Thunder kick things off on Tuesday night, it's time to make some bold predictions in what promises to be an exciting pair of series.
East Finals' Biggest X-Factor Is Mitchell Robinson
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There's a number of players who are worthy of being called X-factors in the Eastern Conference Finals.
OG Anunoby could have a huge two-way impact against his former Toronto Raptors teammate Pascal Siakam. Aaron Nesmith brings the kind of defensive toughness and versatility required to limit Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges and others on offense. Josh Hart is a walking X-factor every time he steps on a court.
The player who will make the biggest impact on winning without necessarily putting up big numbers will be Mitchell Robinson, however.
Robinson was fantastic in New York's second-round series vs. the Boston Celtics despite averaging just 4.7 points per game. The 7-foot backup center imposed his will on the Celtics frontcourt by averaging 8.0 rebounds and 1.0 steals over just 20.7 minutes a game. He showed tremendous defensive effort and versatility, with the Knicks registering a plus-46 in his 124 total minutes. The next closest player was Miles McBride (plus-16) with New York's five starters combined to come in at minus-47.
Even though the Pacers won their series against the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games, Indiana finished the round ranked dead last in rebounding.
Mitchell is far more physical than Myles Turner and will make a huge impact on the series.
Anthony Edwards Averages Under 20 Points per Game vs. Thunder
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Anthony Edwards is quickly becoming one of the best postseason scorers we've ever seen.
The 23-year-old already ranks No. 10 in playoff history in points per game (27.4), above some legends like Kobe Bryant, Stephen Curry, Shaquille O'Neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and many others.
Against this Thunder defense, however, we'll see Edwards finally struggle in a postseason series.
OKC ranked No. 1 in defensive rating during the regular season (106.6 rating) and is the runaway leader these playoffs as well (101.6 rating), easily besting Edwards' second-placed Wolves (106.8 rating). No team defended players in isolation during the season better than Oklahoma City (0.81 points per possession), either .
Edwards struggled in the regular season against the Thunder, averaging just 22.3 points on 36.4 percent shooting overall.
Oklahoma City has a stable full of strong, athletic defenders they can throw at Edwards with a premier rim protector behind them. Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams and others should all get their turns defending Edwards with Holmgren serving as a second line of defense.
As good as Edwards is, even he'll struggle against this elite defense.
Pacers Cut Multiple Players From Rotation to Compete with Knicks
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The Indiana Pacers have used depth to their advantage all year and helped wipe out the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers with a complete team effort.
A whopping 10 players averaged between 10.1 and 33.3 minutes per game for Indiana in the second round, a strategy that runs counterintuitive to how the New York Knicks play.
All five Knicks starters averaged more minutes than the Pacers' most-used player (Andrew Nembhard), with just seven total guys on New York's roster cracking the second-round rotation.
So, which team's strategy wins out now?
The Pacers will find it far more difficult to play their end-of-rotation players like Thomas Bryant and Ben Sheppard against this Knicks squad than they did vs. a banged-up Cavaliers team. Bryant and Sheppard both had nice moments against Cleveland, although the two combined to go minus-23 during their court time.
Indiana will likely begin Game 1 with their normal 10-man rotation but eventually trim their bench to the trio of T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin and former Knick lottery pick Obi Toppin.
The Pacers shouldn't try to match the Knicks in terms of rotation size, but will ultimately be the team that is forced to make the biggest adjustment.
Chet Holmgren Will Have 5 Blocks and 5 Three-Pointers in the Same Game
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All eyes will be on the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Anthony Edwards matchup in this series, although don't forget about Minneapolis native Chet Holmgren.
Holmgren is the ultimate chess piece between these two teams. Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault had to use the scrawny 7'1" big man primarily at power forward against the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokić, although his floor-spacing ability will be key against these Minnesota Timberwolves.
Only one player in NBA playoff history has ever recorded a five-block, five-three-point game, with Kawhi Leonard doing so on April 22, 2016 as a member of the San Antonio Spurs. Look for Holmgren to join this short list in this series.
On offense, expect the Thunder to use Holmgren at center in five-out lineups to try and pull Rudy Gobert away from the rim and give Gilgeous-Alexander more driving lanes. With Julius Randle and Gobert doing most of their scoring inside the arc, Holmgren is going to be a major defensive factor with his rim protection as well.
Few players in the NBA (aside from Victor Wembanyama) can combine Holmgren's shot-blocking and three-point shooting ability, especially at his size.
We'll see Holmgren's elite two-way versatility on full display here as he makes NBA history.
Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton Each Hit a Game-Winning Shot
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Two of the most clutch players in the NBA will go head-to-head in the East Finals, with Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton both having dazzled us already with their late-game heroics.
Expect more of the same in this series, with both players hitting a game-winning field goal for their respective teams.
Brunson was the NBA's Clutch Player of the Year and has the highest plus-minus mark of any player this postseason (plus-35). It hasn't been a pretty postseason for the New York Knicks, who have had to erase numerous double-digit deficits against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics en route to the East Finals now.
Halliburton is plus-11 in clutch minutes these playoffs, giving the Indiana Pacers a perfect 5-0 record in these games. According to ESPN research, playoff teams have won only three of 1,643 games when trailing by at least seven points in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime since the 1997-98 season. The Pacers have two of these wins, most recently in Game 2 vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers thanks to a Haliburton three-pointer.
Indiana had a net rating of plus-6.5 in the fourth quarter against the Cavs, while the Knicks were plus-17.4 (!!!) in the final 12 minutes against the Celtics.
We're in for some fireworks at the end of games in this series. Expect both Brunson and Haliburton to pick up where they've left off.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Breaks Russell Westbrook's Thunder Playoff Scoring Record
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA in scoring this season (32.7 points per game) and will continue to dominate offensively, even now in the West Finals.
The Oklahoma City Thunder franchise record for points in a single playoff game currently stands at 51, with Russell Westbrook setting the mark on April 19, 2017 against the Houston Rockets. Kevin Durant had left to sign with the Golden State Warriors the summer before, leaving Westbrook to do the majority of the scoring by himself.
The Thunder are in a similar situation now, especially with Jalen Williams (17.6 points on 37.5 percent shooting overall) struggling last round against the Denver Nuggets.
As the stakes only get higher, OKC will have no choice but to force-feed Gilgeous-Alexander as he tries to carve up a stingy Minnesota Timberwolves defense.
The good news? The 26-year-old had no problem against the Wolves in the regular season, averaging 35.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists in four contests while shooting 55.6 percent from three and getting to the free throw line 48 times (making 40, 83.3 percent).
OKC may prefer to see a more balanced scoring attack from its complementary pieces, although expect one monster game from Gilgeous-Alexander as he takes down Westbrook's franchise postseason scoring record.
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