Ranking Each MLB Team's Playoff Chances at 2025 Season's Quarter Mark
After winning the World Series in 2023, the Texas Rangers missed the postseason altogether last year. But that's not looking like it's in the cards for the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, out to a 27-15 start and looking like one of the surest things to be playing into October.
Atlanta felt like a sure thing for the playoffs in the preseason, with both Baltimore and Texas not too far behind the Braves. But all three have much lower postseason odds after their mediocre/rough runs through the first quarter of the year, replaced by the surprisingly potent Tigers, Giants and Royals on the list of contenders.
We've broken the 30 teams into seven tiers, presented in ascending order of postseason likelihood, from the five teams that have been effectively (but not mathematically) eliminated from the playoffs to the four that seem to have already punched their tickets to October.
Betting lines from DraftKings and postseason odds from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and PECOTA were each captured at 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Team rankings are based on those consensus percentages.
Nos. 30-26: When Are the Next Draft and Lottery Drawing?
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30. Colorado Rockies (7-35)
B-R: <0.1%; FG: 0.0%; PECOTA: 0.0%; DK: +4000
29. Chicago White Sox (13-29)
B-R: <0.1%; FG: 0.0%; PECOTA: 0.0%; DK: +4000
28. Washington Nationals (17-26)
B-R: <0.1%; FG: 0.2%; PECOTA: 0.0%; DK: +4000
27. Miami Marlins (15-26)
B-R: <0.1%; FG: 0.0%; PECOTA: 0.0%; DK: +2200
26. Pittsburgh Pirates (14-29)
B-R: <0.1%; FG: 0.7%; PECOTA: 0.0%; DK: +2200
To first answer those questions above, the next draft will begin on July 13 with the Nationals owning the No. 1 pick, while the lottery for the 2026 draft will be held during the winter meetings in early December.
Regardless of how poorly the rest of this season goes for the Rockies and the Nationals, though, they won't be drafting any better than 10th next summer after receiving "too many" lottery picks in recent years. (Also true for the Los Angeles Angels, who narrowly avoided landing in this bottom tier.)
For the second consecutive season, that bit of lottery information is a tragic comedy for the worst team in the league. The Chicago White Sox suffered a modern-day record 121 losses in 2024, yet they will be drafting 10th in two months' time because previous lottery picks didn't fix them fast enough. The Rockies may well lose even more games than that and will be in the same boat next summer.
From this tier, at least the Pirates have Paul Skenes, and at least the Nationals are showing "if you squint enough" signs of maybe mattering next year. But players and fans of all five of these teams might as well start scheduling golf rounds and family vacations for early October.
Nos. 25-22: A Faint Pulse Is Still a Pulse
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25. Los Angeles Angels (17-24)
B-R: 0.1%; FG: 0.7%; PECOTA: 0.3%; DK: +1800
24. Cincinnati Reds (20-23)
B-R: 2.7%; FG: 6.0%; PECOTA: 0.6%; DK: +700
23. Baltimore Orioles (15-24)
B-R: 1.4%; FG: 7.7%; PECOTA: 11.5%; DK: +400
22. Athletics (22-20)
B-R: 10.6%; FG: 18.9%; PECOTA: 5.3%; DK: +550
It's only four teams, but the range of this tier is the widest by far.
The Angels have marginally better odds than the first five teams that have already been all but declared dead, but they have a negative-63 run differential overall and have lost 19 of their last 27 games. Though they do have a better record than the disappointing Orioles, it feels like there are light years between them as far as playoff potential is concerned—especially with Mike Trout's return from an April 30 knee injury not exactly imminent.
Though, to be clear, it wouldn't much feel like the O's have any hope, either, if we hadn't watched the 2019 Washington Nationals (19-31 after 50 games) and 2021 Atlanta Braves (didn't have a winning record until their 111th game of the season) battle back from slow starts to win it all.
Maybe Baltimore can right the ship and get back on track to those preseason expectations on par with how well it fared in the past two seasons. However, the team has shown no reason to assume a similar turnaround is forthcoming.
Stuck somewhere in between as fringe teams with a less than 15 percent consensus chance of making the postseason are the Reds and the A's, both of whom do have more than enough talent to keep things interesting.
The Reds need to get healthy if they're to hang in the NL Central, though, currently absent four key bats and their Opening Day starting pitcher (Hunter Greene). At 4-10 in their last 14 games, they're already falling out of the conversation, but they might also be an Elly De La Cruz hot streak away from making some serious noise.
The A's are the unofficial bandwagon team du jour, though, in case you weren't aware. Playing in a Triple-A park with darn near the lowest payroll in baseball with rookies like Jacob Wilson, Nick Kurtz and Gunnar Hoglund leading their charge, it's almost hard to not root for the unlikeliest team to have made it into mid-May with a winning record.
Nos. 21-18: 25-ish% Chance After 25% of the Season
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21. Milwaukee Brewers (20-23)
B-R: 23.5%; FG: 12.1%; PECOTA: 5.0%; DK: +370
20. Tampa Bay Rays (19-22)
B-R: 24.0%; FG: 15.7%; PECOTA: 17.6%; DK: +275
19. St. Louis Cardinals (23-19)
B-R: 27.8%; FG: 32.0%; PECOTA: 13.3%; DK: +265
18. Toronto Blue Jays (20-21)
B-R: 14.2%; FG: 32.2%; PECOTA: 38.3%; DK: +240
What's fun about this tier is it's where you can almost see the darts being thrown. Every team here is given at least a 23 percent chance by one of the forecasting models, but they also each have one that says less than 16 percent chance and none willing to go as high as 40 percent.
Basically, the odds say one of these four teams will make the cut, and your guess is as good as any.
Of the bunch, there's little question Toronto is the one most likely to be an aggressive buyer if still on the fence at the trade deadline, given how much it's already invested into this season and beyond.
It's also likely the No. 6 seed in the National League will end up with several more wins than the No. 6 seed in the American League, meaning the bar is a bit lower for the Blue Jays than it is for the Cardinals and Brewers. So, it feels right for them to be at the top of this tier, even though they have the worst run differential (-24).
Both the Brewers and the Rays could get interesting if and when they get healthy, though.
The Rays lost Josh Lowe on Opening Day, Jonny DeLuca about a week later and they've yet to get either Shane McClanahan or Ha-Seong Kim on the field in 2025.
Those are major absences, but Lowe is almost back and the hope is the other three will be in the mix when July begins. If they all return and the Rays start getting more out of young stars in the making Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero, look out.
Similarly, Milwaukee is down two key outfielders in Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins with almost an entire starting rotation on the IL, too. Getting Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Civale back into the rotation hopefully in short order could be a huge boost in a pretty wide open division.
St. Louis has been the best (surprisingly) of this quartet so far, though. PECOTA still isn't buying what the Cardinals are selling, skeptical about the staying power of their combination of young breakout players such as Victor Scott II and Matthew Liberatore and bounce-back veterans like Steven Matz and Nolan Arenado.
They are right there with the Cubs atop the NL Central after their recent surge, though, and might not be a fire-sale candidate after all.
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Nos. 17-13: Coin Flips, But Leaning 'No Postseason'
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17. Boston Red Sox (22-22)
B-R: 23.0%; FG: 39.4%; PECOTA: 30.7%; DK: +125
16. Texas Rangers (22-21)
B-R: 7.9%; FG: 42.6%; PECOTA: 62.3%; DK: -120
15. Minnesota Twins (21-20)
B-R: 19.2%; FG: 48.6%; PECOTA: 65.5%; DK: +130
14. Cleveland Guardians (25-17)
B-R: 59.2%; FG: 46.5%; PECOTA: 30.5%; DK: -120
13. San Francisco Giants (25-18)
B-R: 60.8%; FG: 46.0%; PECOTA: 42.8%; DK: +110
Welcome to "No Man's Land."
All five of these teams are right in the mix, sitting at .500 or better with plenty of reasons to believe they could make the postseason. Yet, all five have consensus playoff percentages in the 30-49 range, suggesting the forecasting models would not project them for the playoffs right now.
Quick note on that, though: Of the remaining teams in the top 12, it's seven NL and five AL. That means at least one of the American League teams from this tier or lower will ultimately make the cut.
The one percentage here that jumps out in a huge way is how low Baseball Reference is on the Rangers. FanGraphs, PECOTA and DraftKings all view the 2023 World Series champs as basically 50/50 to at least compete this October, but B-R is all the way out on the Rangers, rating them as the 12th-best (fourth-worst) team in the AL.
[B-R not to be confused with B/R there, by the way. I had the Rangers in the ALCS in the preseason and still think it's more likely than not they make the playoffs.]
That's also true of the Red Sox—my other preseason ALCS pick—which all four models/lines give less than a 45 percent chance. It's shocking to see all the numbers that low on Boston, considering it's fifth in the majors in runs scored and just one game back for the AL's No. 6 seed if the season ended today.
The biggest vote of confidence within this tier goes to the Minnesota Twins, courtesy of PECOTA. They certainly have the pitching to get there, but their bats need to wake up. Byron Buxton is leading the team in pretty much everything, and godspeed if you're betting on him playing in more than 65 percent of Minnesota's games for what would be the first time since 2017.
Cleveland has re-emerged as a mighty intriguing contender, and one that hopes to add both Shane Bieber and John Means to its rotation at some point before the regular season ends. We shall see if it's too little too late, or if those will be the late additions who key an ALCS run like Matt Boyd and Alex Cobb did last fall.
Lastly, got to at least touch on the lone NL team in this tier.
San Francisco has been a pleasant surprise at 25-18, but it still feels likely to finish in fourth place in the NL West and miss the postseason. It's been probably the most fortunate team in the bigs as far as the injury bug is concerned, and Willy Adames is starting to come around after his sluggish April.
However, if that $182 million man heats up, they stay mostly healthy and start getting Justin Verlander some occasional wins, maybe they actually flirt with winning the division.
Nos. 12-9: Coin Flips, But Leaning 'Yes Postseason'
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12. Arizona Diamondbacks (22-21)
B-R: 44.3%; FG: 45.6%; PECOTA: 51.5%; DK: -105
11. Kansas City Royals (25-19)
B-R: 70.2%; FG: 51.5%; PECOTA: 34.4%; DK: -115
10. Atlanta Braves (21-21)
B-R: 20.9%; FG: 66.1%; PECOTA: 71.0%; DK: -145
9. Houston Astros (21-20)
B-R: 85.8%; FG: 50.0%; PECOTA: 51.7%; DK: -105
If you're still trying to make sense of how Baseball-Reference can be so low on the Rangers, look no further than how incredibly high it is on the Astros. Each model essentially has a combined 100 percentage points to divvy up between the two Texas-based AL West teams.
And while the other three view it as almost a straight 50/50 split, B-R is just about all-in on Houston doing its usual thing and streaking into the playoffs in spite of a sluggish April.
Speaking of still believing after a cold start, here's hoping you didn't sell all of your Braves stock amid their 0-7 start, nor when they were still sitting in fifth place in the NL East into late April. They've clawed their way back to .500 and have both Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. likely to return by Memorial Day. They were -400 to make the playoffs in the preseason, so that current line of near even money sure is enticing.
The big question is whether we're destined for three NL East teams or three NL West teams in this year's postseason, as a bet on Atlanta is effectively a bet against Arizona. And framing it that way feels bold, even as the Diamondbacks have been slightly underdelivering thus far. If and when that starting rotation turns a corner, though, they could go on quite a tear and reignite those preseason feelings that the two best teams in the majors this season might both play in the NL West.
Speaking of tears, the Royals sure did put one together, improving from 8-14 to 24-16 in a hurry. Granted, seven of those 16 wins did come at home against the Rockies and White Sox, so they've already burned most of the biggest gimmes out there and now have one of the toughest schedules remaining.
Because of their limited offense, I question Kansas City's staying power the most of the teams in this tier, and it's not all that close. (PECOTA concurs.) Then again, the Royals might have the best rotation in baseball and could become the first team to make the playoffs while averaging fewer than 4.0 runs per game since the 2015 St. Louis Cardinals not only made the playoffs but also won an MLB-best 100 games that year.
Nos. 8-5: Sitting Pretty
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8. San Diego Padres (26-15)
B-R: 92.5%; FG: 60.9%; PECOTA: 58.5%; DK: -185
7. Philadelphia Phillies (24-17)
B-R: 49.5%; FG: 76.6%; PECOTA: 77.1%; DK: -290
6. Seattle Mariners (23-18)
B-R: 87.2%; FG: 70.7%; PECOTA: 82.7%; DK: -195
5. Chicago Cubs (25-18)
B-R: 94.0%; FG: 70.8%; PECOTA: 91.5%; DK: -350
Baseball-Reference's percentages again stick out like a sore thumb here, and on two fronts.
The obvious "Wait, what?" spot is B-R not even giving the Phillies a 50 percent chance of making the postseason.
Not saying they're a lock to finish top-six in the NL, but calling it 50/50 is certainly one stance to take on a team that is seven games above .500 after opening the year with the third-best odds (-265) of playing into October. Save for Kyle Schwarber's homers, their offense hasn't been quite as potent as we thought it would be. And the bullpen is a bit of a trainwreck. But this starting rotation has been sensational, even with Aaron Nola underperforming, and they ought to get to 90 wins with room to spare.
The less immediately apparent wild part of B-R's current forecast is San Diego with a better chance of reaching the postseason (92.5 percent) than the Dodgers (87.2 percent).
Again, nothing is a lock, and the Padres have been mighty impressive thus far. But, come on. The Dodgers are -10000 on DraftKings, which is an implied 99.01 percent. Both PECOTA and FanGraphs have the Dodgers projected to finish 10 games ahead of the Padres. What are we doing here? The 60-ish percent chance from the other three models/lines is a much more realistic representation, even with Jackson Merrill back, Dylan Cease heating up and Fernando Tatis Jr. making quite the case for NL MVP.
Meanwhile, the opportunity to get decent money on the Cubs making the playoffs is gone and likely only going to get worse. They've already played all their games against the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks for the year, and they are three games into a 21-game stretch against teams with losing records. By June 5, they ought to have a nearly insurmountable lead in the NL Central.
Lastly, Seattle feels a bit high as the third-most likely playoff team out of the American League, but perhaps that's just the nagging memory of the M's blowing what was a 10-game lead in the AL West in mid-June of last season. They're hitting much better than last year, even with Julio Rodríguez's OPS continuing to hover in the .700 range. And even with George Kirby yet to make his 2025 debut, they've managed to more than tread water and should be in excellent shape when both he and Logan Gilbert return, hopefully by the end of the month.
Nos. 4-1: The Virtual Locks
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4. New York Yankees (24-18)
B-R: 97.5%; FG: 86.9%; PECOTA: 82.9%; DK: -425
3. New York Mets (28-15)
B-R: 96.8%; FG: 85.8%; PECOTA: 90.8%; DK: -750
2. Detroit Tigers (28-15)
B-R: 99.7%; FG: 88.8%; PECOTA: 86.3%; DK: -750
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (27-15)
B-R: 87.2%; FG: 97.3%; PECOTA: 97.9%; DK: -10000
Are we headed for what would basically be a repeat of last year's LCS round?
The Dodgers and the two New York teams spending a combined $1.3 billion (give or take) plus a feisty AL Central champ crashing the party and hoping to shock the world?
Those sure do feel like the four teams to beat at this point, the Tigers, Yankees and Mets leading the majors in run differential, while the Dodgers are more than holding their own atop the NL West in spite of an injured list a mile long.
If you had to pick one of these teams to fall apart and miss the playoffs, though, who would it be?
Atlanta was -10000 to make the postseason at this time one year ago, and it needed a tiebreaker to sneak in when all was said and done. And though they were never quite this highly regarded, the Angels were 10 games over .500 at this point in the 2022 season, only to go 46-72 the rest of the way.
The obvious pick would be Detroit, but only because that's the "one of these things is not like the other" squad. The Tigers have unquestionably looked the part of the World Series contender so far, already scoring at least 10 runs in a game six times in May. But if Javier Báez stops playing like it's 2018 and starts playing like it's 2023-24, things could start to unravel.
The Mets plausibly could falter, too, if and when their pitching staff comes back to earth. And if any MLB team springs to mind when you hear the word "collapse," it's the Mets. However, they have more than enough pop (and money) in their lineup that crashing and burning is unlikely, even if Griffin Canning and Co. regress in a big way.
But brace yourselves for a summer full of bracing ourselves for a possible Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani rematch in the World Series, as those superstars make their pushes for a third and fourth MVP, respectively. And if that matchup does come together again, chances are we'll even get to watch the latter pitch to the former this time around.
(Although, Juan Soto vs. the Yankees in the World Series would be even more of a spectacle.)
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