B/R's MLB 30 in '30 Predicting the Best First Basemen in 2030
Welcome to the Bleacher Report MLB 30 in '30 series, where we look ahead five years to the 2030 season and predict who will be the 30 best players at each position.
Up next, first basemen.
An offensive-focused position where players can sometimes stay productive into their late-30s, this list spans from current stars who will be coming down the home stretch of their careers like Bryce Harper, Matt Olson and Pete Alonso to some of the most prolific college sluggers in the country.
As for the current crop of top prospects, Bryce Eldridge (SF), Jac Caglianone (KC), Coby Mayo (BAL) and Xavier Isaac (TB) all have star potential, and there's a Japanese League standout who could enter the picture in the coming years.
Offensive and defensive tools were both considered when assessing a player's outlook five years down the line, with offense carrying significantly more value at first base, and this was ultimately a largely subjective exercise based on projection.
Before we dive into the 30 in '30, a nod to some current stars who are expected to age out of stardom before the 2030 season arrives.
Catch up on the B/R 30 in '30 series: Shortstops, Third Basemen
Notable Veteran Omissions
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The following veterans were excluded from the rankings under the assumption that age regression will have removed them from the Top 30 at the position:
Willson Contreras, STL (38)
Yandy Díaz, TB (38)
Ty France, MIN (35)
Freddie Freeman, LAD (40)
Paul Goldschmidt, NYY (42)
Rhys Hoskins, MIL (37)
Nathaniel Lowe, WAS (34)
Carlos Santana, CLE (44)
LaMonte Wade Jr., SF (36)
Christian Walker, HOU (39)
Nos. 30-26
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30. Tyler Locklear, Seattle Mariners
2030 Age: 29
Despite struggling in his first MLB action last season, Locklear still has a high offensive ceiling, and he is wearing out Triple-A pitching to start 2025 with an .825 OPS and 16 extra-base hits in 36 games. The VCU product was a second-round pick in the 2022 draft.
29. Deyvison De Los Santos, Miami Marlins
2030 Age: 27
De Los Santos posted one of the gaudiest minor league stat lines of any prospect in 2024, hitting .294/.343/.571 with 40 home runs and 120 RBI in 137 games between Double-A and Triple-A. The power is for real, but his middling hit tool and limited defensive value place a clear cap on his long-term upside.
28. Jack Gurevitch, University of San Diego (2025 Draft)
2030 Age: 26
One of the most polished hitters in the 2025 college class, Gurevitch has been steadily creeping up draft boards this spring while hitting .354/.455/.641 with 13 doubles, 13 home runs and 47 RBI in 48 games. His offensive approach is more contact-oriented, but he makes consistent hard contact and might have some untapped power upside.
27. Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies
2030 Age: 31
A first-round pick in the 2019 draft out of UCLA, Toglia finally broke through last season when he posted a 103 OPS+ with 25 home runs and 2.2 WAR in 116 games as a bright spot on a 101-loss Rockies team. He strikes out a ton, but he also had some of the loudest batted-ball metrics of any hitter last season. There could be a 40-homer performance at some point on the horizon, though he might never hit .220 over a full season.
26. Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks
2030 Age: 33
Naylor earned his first All-Star selection last season while posting career highs in home runs (32) and RBI (108) hitting behind MVP candidate José Ramírez in the Cleveland lineup. The Guardians traded him to the D-backs during the offseason ahead of his contract year, and he figures to be one of the better bats on the market next winter.
Nos. 25-21
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25. Ralphy Velazquez, Cleveland Guardians
2030 Age: 25
Velazquez was a prep catcher who shifted to first base in pro ball as the Guardians hoped to get the most out of his loud offensive tools. The No. 23 overall pick in the 2023 draft, he hit .231/.347/.385 with 23 doubles, 11 home runs and 61 RBI in 101 games between Single-A and High-A last year. It might take a few years for everything to click, but the potential for middle-of-the-order production is there.
24. Ethan Petry, University of South Carolina (2025 Draft)
2030 Age: 26
Petry posted a 1.110 OPS with 21 home runs during his sophomore season at South Carolina last spring, then won 2024 Cape Cod League MVP honors with a .360/.480/.760 line and 11 home runs in 125 plate appearances against some of the nation's best college arms. It has been more of the same this spring, with a .329/.446/.605 line and 10 long balls in 43 games.
23. Josue Briceño, Detroit Tigers
2030 Age: 25
The 2024 Arizona Fall League MVP, Briceño hit a blistering .433/.509/.867 with 10 home runs and 27 RBI in 25 games to cap off a terrific age-19 campaign and send his prospect stock soaring. He continues to split his time between catcher and first base, and his value would obviously get a nice boost if he could stick behind the plate, but a full-time move to first base would also expedite his arrival in the majors.
22. Tre' Morgan, Tampa Bay Rays
2030 Age: 27
With a rare 60-hit, 40-power offensive profile, Morgan is far from the traditional first base prospect, but his hit tool and elite defense might make him an impact player even if he never hits more than 10-12 home runs in a season. He batted .324/.408/.483 with 23 doubles, 10 home runs and 68 RBI in 101 games across three minor league levels last year, and he provides some versatility with the ability to play a solid left field.
21. Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels
2030 Age: 28
Schanuel played just 22 games in the minors before making his MLB debut less than two months after going No. 11 overall in the 2023 draft. His strong on-base skills give him a high floor, though it remains to be seen if he will develop the requisite power to be a star at first base. He hit .250/.343/.362 with 19 doubles, 13 home runs and 54 RBI in 147 games as a rookie last season.
Nos. 20-16
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20. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
2030 Age: 36
Olson is in the fourth season of an eight-year, $168 million deal with the Braves, and the club will face a $20 million club option decision for the 2030 season when he will be entering his age-36 campaign. With a 134 OPS+, 266 home runs and 35.0 WAR in 10 seasons, he is one of the best first basemen of his generation, and his well-rounded game should age better than most at the position.
19. Pete Alonso, New York Mets
2030 Age: 35
Alonso does not provide much secondary value outside of what he does in the batter's box, so it's fair to wonder how well his game will age, but he could be chasing some major milestones in 2030. With 43 home runs per 162 games played over his seven seasons in the majors, he could be on the other side of 400 career long balls five years from now with good health in the years to come. However, his fall-off could be a drastic one once it comes.
18. Andrew Fischer, University of Tennessee (2025 Draft)
2030 Age: 26
After stops at Duke and Ole Miss in his first two collegiate seasons, Fischer joined the defending national champions during the offseason and immediately became an offensive cornerstone. He is hitting .313/.491/.749 with 20 home runs and more walks (53) than strikeouts (33) over 52 games, and while he has played a passable third base this spring, his long-term home is likely across the diamond at first base.
17. Rintaro Sasaki, Stanford University (2026 Draft)
2030 Age: 25
Long expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NPB draft in Japan, Sasaki instead made the surprising decision to play college baseball in the United States, enrolling at Stanford as one of the most intriguing freshmen in his class. His numbers don't jump off the page this spring—a .283/.388/.439 line and 15 extra-base hits in 48 games—but he is just scratching the surface of his offensive potential. He slugged a national record 140 home runs during his high school career in Japan.
16. Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs
2030 Age: 32
Blocked at both infield corners in the Dodgers organization, Busch was traded to the Cubs prior to the 2024 season in exchange for outfielder Zyhir Hope and left-hander Jackson Ferris, who have since emerged as consensus Top 100 prospects. However, Busch has also delivered on his end, posting a 117 OPS+ with 28 doubles, 21 home runs and 2.8 WAR in 152 games as a rookie. He has been even better so far this year with a 142 OPS+ over his first 150 plate appearances.
Nos. 15-11
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15. C.J. Kayfus, Cleveland Guardians
2030 Age: 28
Kayfus hit .291/.393/.511 with 26 doubles, 17 home runs and 92 RBI in 108 games last season while reaching Double-A in his first full professional season. He steadily improved during his three seasons at the University of Miami, and that progression has continued in the minor leagues. He is the rare first base prospect with above-average athleticism and speed, and he can also play a passable left field.
14. Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays
2030 Age: 32
Aranda hit a forgettable .222/.309/.382 in 333 plate appearances at the MLB level the past three seasons, which has made his 2025 breakout one of the biggest surprises of the first month. However, he carried a .302/.390/.480 line over 2,301 plate appearances during his time in the minors, so there is a foundation to believe his breakthrough is the real deal. The 27-year-old sports a .342/.429/.553 line and 180 OPS+ in 133 plate appearances this year.
13. Ben Rice, New York Yankees
2030 Age: 31
A 12th-round pick in the 2021 draft, Rice announced himself as a prospect on the rise when he hit .324/.434/.615 with 20 home runs and 68 RBI in 73 games while reaching Double-A during the 2023 season. He made his MLB debut in 2024 and has been a breakout star this year with a 163 OPS+ and nine doubles, nine home runs and 20 RBI in 144 plate appearances. He is the logical replacement for Paul Goldschmidt at first base.
12. Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
2030 Age: 30
Will Casas ever stay healthy long enough to fully tap into his superstar-level talent? The 2018 first-round pick and 2020 Olympics standout has a 118 OPS+ in 952 plate appearances since making his MLB debut as a September call-up in 2022. He was one of the most productive hitters in baseball during the second half of his rookie season the following year, but a fractured rib limited him to 63 games in 2024 and he lasted just 29 games before suffering a ruptured patellar tendon in his left knee on May 2.
11. Xavier Isaac, Tampa Bay Rays
2030 Age: 26
Relative to pre-draft rankings, Isaac looked like a bit of a reach as the No. 29 overall pick in the 2022 draft, but few organizations are better at scouting talent than the Rays. After a breakout performance in the lower levels of the minors in 2023, he hit .264/.370/.480 with 21 doubles, 18 home runs and 78 RBI last year while reaching Double-A in his age-20 campaign. He has 70-grade raw power, but he is also far from a sure thing to fully maximize it after logging a 33.3 percent strikeout rate in 2024.
Nos. 10-6
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10. Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles
2030 Age: 28
Mayo crushed Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .926 OPS with 23 doubles, 22 home runs and 67 RBI in 89 games last season, but he went just 4-for-41 with 22 strikeouts in his first MLB action. With Ryan Mountcastle floated in trade rumors the past few seasons and Ryan O'Hearn headed for free agency this winter, he could get a shot at the starting first base job next spring.
9. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
2030 Age: 37
Harper will have two seasons left on his 13-year, $330 million deal heading into the 2030 season, and with 343 career home runs there is a chance that could be the year he hits his 500th home run as he comes down the home stretch of a Hall of Fame career. The early move from right field to first base should help keep him upright in the coming years, and his balanced offensive game should age better than the traditional slugger. For reference, Joey Votto had a 139 OPS+ and 36 home runs in his age-37 season in 2021.
8. Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
2030 Age: 32
Pasquantino ranked among the AL RBI leaders last season before suffering a fractured thumb on Aug. 29, and he still finished with 30 doubles, 19 home runs and 97 RBI in 131 games while posting a 112 OPS+ over 554 plate appearances. The Royals need him to step forward as a consistent source of protection for Bobby Witt Jr. in the middle of the lineup, especially with Salvador Perez inching closer to retirement.
7. Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
2030 Age: 30
A "can't-miss" prospect coming out of Arizona State who went No. 1 overall in the 2020 draft, Torkelson flew through the minor leagues and slugged 31 home runs during his first full season in the majors. However, he regressed to the point of being demoted to the minors last year, and he entered spring training without a guaranteed job. He responded by absolutely raking in the Grapefruit League, and he has a 148 OPS+ with 11 doubles, 10 home runs and 33 RBI through 41 games this year. His batted-ball data suggests he has turned a corner.
6. Nick Kurtz, Las Vegas Athletics
2030 Age: 27
In 164 games over three seasons at Wake Forest—roughly the equivalent of one full MLB season—Kurtz hit .333/.510/.725 with 61 home runs and 182 RBI, and the Athletics took him with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 draft. Less than a year later, he is in the big leagues, after hitting .336/.432/.689 with 10 doubles, 11 home runs and 37 RBI over 32 games in the minors. He has the upside to be No. 1 on this list if everything clicks.
5. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows (Japan)
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2030 Age: 30
Munetaka Murakami put together one of the most prolific seasons in Japanese League history in 2022 when he hit .318/.458/.711 with 56 home runs and 134 RBI during his age-22 season with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows.
He hasn't quite matched that level of production in the years since, but he still sports a .939 OPS with 242 home runs in 940 career games, and he just turned 25 years old at the beginning of February.
He is expected to be posted next offseason, though his fate is in the hands of his current team since he is still shy of the nine years of service time needed to become an unrestricted international free agent.
One way or another, expect Murakami to be playing stateside by 2030. And while he is currently playing third base, he will likely be limited to first base once he makes his way stateside.
4. Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals
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2030 Age: 27
Jac Caglianone was one of the best two-way players in the nation during his sophomore and junior seasons at the University of Florida, showcasing top-of-the-scale raw power in the batter's box and a triple-digit fastball on the mound.
He slugged 33 home runs as a sophomore, then hit .419/.544/.875 with 35 home runs and 72 RBI in 66 games last spring before going No. 6 overall in the 2024 draft.
The Royals initially drafted him as a two-way player, but they have since decided to deploy him solely as a first baseman in an effort to maximize his offensive potential and get his much-needed power bat to the big leagues faster.
He is hitting .320/.392/.578 with nine home runs and 37 RBI in 33 games at Double-A to start the 2025 season, and he could be in the big leagues before the All-Star break, though it's unclear how he fits the team's short-term plans with Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez occupying the bulk of the first base and designated hitter playing time.
3. Tyler Soderstrom, Las Vegas Athletics
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2030 Age: 28
The No. 26 overall pick in the 2020 draft on the strength of a 60-hit, 50-power offensive profile, Tyler Soderstrom is enjoying a breakout season in the middle of the Athletics lineup.
He hit .223/.315/.429 for a 114 OPS+ with 19 extra-base hits in 213 plate appearances last season, and that proved to be just the start of his emergence as an offensive star for a young team on the rise.
The 23-year-old is batting .288/.349/.506 with nine home runs and 27 RBI over 172 plate appearances, and he ranks among the MLB leaders in hard-hit rate (87th percentile), average exit velocity (84th percentile) and expected slugging percentage (89th percentile).
The Athletics gave Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler extensions last offseason, and he could be next in line for a long-term deal, though he is currently under team control through the 2029 season so there's no rush.
2. Bryce Eldridge, San Francisco Giants
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2030 Age: 25
A towering 6'7", 240-pound slugger who was one of the best two-way players in the 2023 draft and a legitimate Day 1 talent on the mound, Bryce Eldridge has focused solely on hitting as a pro and quickly developed into one of the game's most promising power-hitting prospects.
He hit .292/.374/.516 with 27 doubles, 23 home runs and 92 RBI in 116 games last season, closing out his age-19 season at the Triple-A level in what was his fourth minor league stop of the year.
He has quick hands and does a good job keeping his swing from getting too long, with good natural lift that gives him legitimate 70-grade raw power and the potential to be a middle-of-the-order star.
With a .772 OPS in 16 games at Double-A to open the 2025 season, it's reasonable to think he could debut at some point next year in his age-21 campaign, which would give him plenty of time to find his footing leading up to the 2030 season.
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
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2030 Age: 31
The Toronto Blue Jays inked Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a massive 14-year, $500 million extension at the beginning of April, and that contract will keep the face of the franchise in place through the 2039 season.
He hit .323/.396/.544 for a 165 OPS+ with 44 doubles, 30 home runs and 103 RBI last season, finishing sixth in AL MVP balloting and taking home his second Silver Slugger.
When things are clicking at the plate, he is as good offensively as any player in baseball, and he might top a list of potential candidates to join the short list of Triple Crown winners.
A Gold Glove winner at first base in 2022 after starting his career as a third baseman, he should be able to avoid full-time DH duties in the coming years, which further adds to his long-term outlook.
