Arch Manning Out, Garrett Nussmeier No. 1 to Jets in Todd McShay's 2026 NFL Mock Draft

Somebody other than Texas quarterback Arch Manning led Todd McShay's initial mock for the 2026 NFL draft.

The Ringer's draft expert projected the New York Jets to select LSU's Garrett Nussmeier with the No. 1 overall pick. Manning was conspicuous by his absence in the first round altogether.

McShay classified both he and UCLA transfer Nico Iamaleava as 2027 draft prospects.

Along with Nussmeier, McShay had three other QBs come off the board in the top 10: South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, Clemson's Cade Klubnik and Penn State's Drew Allar.

For as hyped as he has been, Manning may not be a surefire first-round prospect in the 2026 class.

For one, he has never been a full-time starter in college. The early returns are encouraging. When Quinn Ewers was out injured last September, Manning threw for 583 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions in wins over Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State.

But there are plenty of examples of 5-star quarterback recruits who don't pan out. Ewers, as one such case, had a good college career but probably didn't live up to the expectations that were set by his No. 1 ranking in the 2021 recruiting class.

There's also the fact that Manning could simply exhaust his full draft eligibility and move on to the NFL in 2027, and McShay isn't the only one sharing that opinion.

"Teams are skeptical Manning will declare, though, as they wonder if he'll play out his eligibility like uncles Peyton and Eli Manning," The Athletic's Jeff Howe reported Wednesday. "The Athletic spoke to five executives and scouts for this story, with all leaning in the direction of predicting Arch Manning would return to school in 2026."

In Bleacher Report's early 2026 mock, Brent Sobleski and Matt Holder included Manning but had him going No. 2 behind Sellers.

"The 19-year-old prospect is exactly what NFL teams want in a modern quarterback," they said of the Gamecocks star. "He's 6'3" and 240 pounds. The underclassman is powerful in the pocket and nearly impossible to bring down at times. 

"Sellers has the athleticism to work off-platform and create outside of structure. He'll even run over some wannabe tacklers. His whip-like throwing motion allows him to sling it to every level as well."

Nussmeier, meanwhile, had a prolific 2024 season after replacing Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. He threw for 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 13 starts.

Allar and Klubnik are both former 5-star recruits who took a step forward as juniors. Allar's 207.9 passing yards per game were similar to his 2023 production, but he had a much higher completion percentage (66.5) and passer rating (153.5). Klubnik nearly doubled his touchdown output (36) and threw three fewer interceptions.

ESPN's Matt Miller made the point the 2026 draft class "doesn't feature a clear QB1 heading into the season." Along with Klubnik, Allar, Nussmeier and Sellers, he included Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson as a name to follow.

Whereas the 2025 draft was pretty barren for teams in need of a quarterback, next year could boast a number of attractive solutions.