MLB's 10 Biggest Surprises of the 2025 Season so Far
We're a little over two weeks into the 2025 MLB season, and a lot of what is happening isn't terribly surprising.
Aaron Judge is the most dangerous hitter in the league? Yup, that scans. And the Los Angeles Dodgers are on pace to win over 100 games? Geez, who saw that coming besides everyone?
As for what is surprising about the '25 season so far, well, you'd best buckle up because we have a lot to talk about.
Ahead, we're going to break down the 10 biggest surprises of the 2025 season so far. The list starts with unpleasant surprises, but don't worry. This is mostly about the pleasant variety.
It's important to note that these surprises aren't necessarily ranked. Rather, they're presented in an order that makes for a sort of narrative.
Carlos Correa and the Twins Continue to Trend the Wrong Way
1 of 10
By August 17 of the 2024 season, the Minnesota Twins were 17 games over .500 and basically waltzing to a spot in the playoffs.
Then they tripped over their own feet, dropping 27 of their last 39 games and falling into fourth place in the AL Central. They went home while the three teams ahead of them advanced to October—and each won a series, no less.
This year was meant to be a revenge tour for the Twins. They mostly retained their roster from last season, and FanGraphs liked it well enough to rate them as a 36.2 percent favorite to win the division.
Instead, they're 4-11 and simply not looking at all up for revenge.
It has been a particularly tough start for the offense, and specifically for Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Each has a nine-figure contract, but Twins fans have likely uttered equally as many expletives as the two have combined to hit .165 with two home runs.
As for those odds, they're way down to 14.8 percent now. It's as if 2024 never ended for the Twins, and it will make for a long season in the Twin Cities if this is how it is.
You Can Already Feel the Orioles' Window Closing
2 of 10
Remember when the Baltimore Orioles won 101 games in 2023 and it felt like they were going to rule the American League East for a long time?
That shouldn't feel like forever ago, but it does. The club did regress to 91 wins in 2024, after all, and it's hard to look at this team and not notice problems where there shouldn't be problems.
Even setting aside the baffling lack of extensions for core stars like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, it is particularly egregious that the Orioles let Corbin Burnes leave and basically neglected to replace him in their rotation. That set a timer for perhaps the most obvious ticking time bomb on any contender.
Sure enough, Orioles starters have a league-worst 5.40 ERA and the team is languishing in the AL East cellar at 6-8.
The current rotation frankly feels unworkable, as Charlie Morton and Dean Kremer both have ERAs starting with an eight and Zach Eflin recently joined a long list of injured hurlers. The trade market may yet be Baltimore's salvation, but you can already hear rival GMs chuckling and saying, "It'll cost you."
Are the O's actually the worst team in the AL East? Likely not, but they might only be the third-best team in it at most.
The Braves Are (almost) Entirely Devoid of Bright Spots
3 of 10
Speaking of teams that looked unstoppable in 2023, that was the year the Atlanta Braves hit everything in sight and won 104 games.
But then came an injury-driven, 15-loss swing to 89-73 in 2024, and the Braves can now be found near the bottom of the National League at 4-10. They're just above the Colorado Rockies, who are arguably MLB's biggest embarrassment.
The good news is that Spencer Strider, who had elbow surgery last year, is on track to rejoin the rotation soon. The bad news is that Ronald Acuña Jr. is making slower progress in his return from a torn ACL, a bad omen for an offense that is already struggling to hit.
But here's the weird part of the Braves' 2025 season so far: They arguably have the best hitter and pitcher in baseball right now.
For his part, Marcell Ozuna leads MLB with a .500 OBP and has hit three homers, including a walk-off on Thursday. For his, Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed one run in 20 innings through three starts.
If Braves fans must take what they can get amid the early onslaught of Ls, this is not a bad consolation prize.
The Red Sox's Best Player Is... Wilyer Abreu?
4 of 10
The Boston Red Sox have sputtered out of the gate, splitting their first 16 games between seven wins and nine losses. There are things to like, though.
Garrett Crochet's pitching? You bet. Kristian Campbell's ascension? Definitely that, too. Rafael Devers' slump-busting April? Hoo boy, did the Red Sox ever need that.
The guy we really need to talk about, though, is Wilyer Abreu. What he's doing early in 2025 isn't merely impressive. It's potentially a game-changing development for Boston.
The 25-year-old right fielder leads the American League with a .483 OBP and has already won two games with his bat, swatting two clutch homers on Opening Day and a walk-off against the St. Louis Cardinals last Sunday.
Moreover, the 2024 Gold Glover seems determined to further up his game defensively. He made a throw last week that gave off Ichiro Suzuki-on-Terrence Long energy:
Abreu's name appeared in trade speculation over the winter, but you have to figure that won't be the case again any time soon. Instead, it shouldn't be long before he's part of a super-outfield alongside Jarren Duran and top prospect Roman Anthony.
Unusual Suspects Are Supporting Yankees' Aaron Judge
5 of 10
As we noted earlier, it scans that Aaron Judge is raking already. And that even undersells it, as he has a 1.223 OPS, six homers and 20 runs batted in already.
It likewise scans that the New York Yankees lead the AL in scoring with an average of 6.50 runs per game. They may have lost Juan Soto over the winter, but they were always going to rally around Judge to score plenty of runs in 2025.
Instead, the strange part is who is rallying around Judge.
On paper, it ought to be guys like Jazz Chisholm Jr., Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt. In reality, only Goldschmidt is off to a warm start while the hits keep on coming from two unlikely heroes: Trent Grisham and Ben Rice.
Together, they have seven homers and a 1.101 OPS. And there's some evidence for the "Is this for real?" test, namely how they rank on either side of Judge in hard-hit rate among Yankees hitters.
This doesn't mean Grisham and Rice will rake all year, mind you. But for now, it matters that they have helped sustain the Yankees amid an 8-6 start that has had its challenges.
George Springer Is Back and the Blue Jays Look Like a Problem
6 of 10
Let's wrap up our tour through the AL East with the team that finished in last place in 2024.
The Toronto Blue Jays weren't exactly favored to pull off an epic turnaround in 2025. They began the year with a 43.6 percent chance of making the playoffs at FanGraphs , the fourth-best odds just within the division.
Instead, they're 8-7 and giving fans things to cheer about beyond just Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 14-year, $500 million contract extension.
A rejuvenated George Springer is certainly one of them. It looked in 2023 and 2024 like he was aging out of stardom, but right now he boasts an MLB-leading .400 average and is pacing the team with 10 runs batted in.
Otherwise, Andrés Giménez has powered up with three home runs and Chris Bassitt (0.98 ERA) and Jeff Hoffman (1.23 ERA, 3 SV) have been terrific for a pitching staff that has a 3.35 ERA overall.
It is surely some comfort for Blue Jays fans that these guys have track records of success. And even if they do cool down, there's more comfort to be had in the fact that Guerrero and Bo Bichette won't be stuck on zero homers forever.
The Giants Are Better Than Expected for Unexpected Reasons
7 of 10
Though the Los Angeles Dodgers went 8-for-8 in winning out of the gate, they found themselves merely tied for the NL West lead as soon as last Sunday.
That was when the San Francisco Giants won for the eighth time in nine games, matching the second-best start in the franchise's history. They're "only" 10-4 now, but the division is on notice all the same.
There are some usual suspects driving the Giants' early success, including ace starter Logan Webb and center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. The latter got hurt shortly after starting a six-year, $113 million contract in 2024, but he's looked terrific in batting .333 with eight doubles already.
But that's really about it. You'd expect nine-figure infielders Willy Adames and Matt Chapman to be doing heavy lifting, but they're hovering around the Mendoza line offensively. Meanwhile, Justin Verlander has a 6.92 ERA.
It's the unusual suspects who have carried the Giants so far. Wilmer Flores is already up to six homers and 19 RBI, while Mike Yastrzemski has come out of the gate with a 1.011 OPS. The whole bullpen has been terrific, posting a 1.79 ERA.
For FanGraphs, the Giants' playoff chances have already shot up from 29.0 to 48.9 percent. Don't look now, but the 2021 vibes are already apparent.
The Padres Are Also Beating Expectations with a Secret Weapon
8 of 10
The Giants had their brief moment in the sun, but it was the San Diego Padres who beat them, the Dodgers and everyone else to 10 wins. They're now 12-3.
The reasons for this are many, and quite a few of them are related to San Diego's offense. Suffice it to say that the guys who are supposed to be hot are hot, including big-money hitters Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.
And then there's the bullpen, which leads MLB with a 1.51 ERA.
This is the same bullpen that lost Josh Hader after 2023 and Tanner Scott after 2024, but it apparently doesn't matter. Six of Mike Schildt's most oft-used arms have a WHIP under 1.00.
Robert Suarez is particularly on one. Through seven appearances that encompass 7.0 innings, he has allowed just two hits and fanned nine. His fastball remains firmly in the discussion of the best pitches in baseball.
Like the Giants, the Padres have already dramatically improved their chances of making the playoffs. For FanGraphs, it's a shift from 35.1 percent on Opening Day to 55.1 percent today.
A Duo of No. 1 Picks Is Finally Paying off and the Tigers Are Mashing
9 of 10
The Detroit Tigers made the playoffs in 2024, but they were really only a competitive team for a few weeks. They thus entered 2025 as a "prove it" team.
They're off to a solid start, as their 9-5 record leads an AL Central that has otherwise been...well, let's say less than great. Moreover, the Tigers are getting major contributions from two players that a less patient team might have abandoned long ago.
One is Casey Mize. Formerly the No. 1 pick of the 2018 draft, his pro career has mostly been defined by injuries and poor returns. He's changing that narrative now, allowing only five hits and a run in his first two starts.
As for the No. 1 pick from the 2020 draft, it seems like Spencer Torkelson has finally arrived as the slugger the Tigers originally intended him to be.
He arrived to spring training without a job in hand, but promptly changed that with a 1.069 OPS and five homers for the exhibition season. He remains hot, posting a 1.066 OPS and four homers through his first 14 games.
The entire Tigers offense has indeed been a surprise, as it's upped its collective wOBA more than any other offense relative to 2024. If they can keep it up, it could prove difficult to deny this team a division title.
Kyren Paris and the Angels Are a Lot of Fun
10 of 10
For years, the Los Angeles Angels did it all wrong. A team is supposed to have superstars and win games. The Angels handled the first thing, but not the other.
Well, now they're off to a 9-5 start in 2025. And even if they no longer have Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout is still there and he seems to have plenty of support.
Trout himself is healthy and looking the part with six homers in 14 games. Yet the three-time MVP has company in the power department, as catcher Logan O'Hoppe and utility man Kyren Paris each have five homers.
The 23-year-old Paris is authoring one of the more astonishing meteoric rises in recent memory. And he made it happen, as this all started when he sought out (and got) help from a two-time MVP's personal swing coach.
“I worked with Aaron Judge’s hitting coach and there are a lot of similarities in my swing now, but it's helped me a lot,” Paris told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. “It’s more like a hover [with my foot] and the finish is similar as well.”
The proof is in the pudding. Paris is batting .400/.488/.914, with five stolen bases to go with his five long balls. It's a breakout even the Angels may not have seen coming, but they're surely not about to complain.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
