Hot Seat Check for Every HC Ahead of 2025 NFL Draft

Most NFL head coaches must be on high alert at the end of a season. Every year, several clubs fire lead skippers for a myriad of reasons.

A down year can hurt a head coach's job security. Once the losing or disappointing seasons stack up, their seat will get warmer.

Even first-time HCs aren't completely safe after Year 1. The New England Patriots booted Jerod Mayo after his first season right after the team positioned him to take over for Bill Belichick with a preordained succession plan.

Now, let's look across the league for a hot seat check before the 2025 NFL draft.

We have tiered the head coaching seats by temperature: freezing cold, new and cool, room temperature, warm, heated and blazing hot.

Freezing Cold Seats

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Eagles HC Nick Sirianni

Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs: A Super Bowl loss won't impact Reid's job security. Over the last six years, the Chiefs have played in five Super Bowls, and he has three shiny rings. He is sitting on an icebox.

Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles: Sirianni's temperament was a hot-button issue during the 2024 season, but his fiery demeanor works for this team. He has led the Eagles to the Super Bowl twice in the last three years, winning one, and Philadelphia has a winning record for all four of his coaching campaigns.

Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers: The Harbaugh magic is real. In one year, he transformed the Chargers from an underachieving .500 squad under former lead skipper Brandon Staley to an 11-win playoff contender. Harbaugh can wear on people, but his vision is still fresh in Los Angeles.

Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams: McVay has little to worry about. Within the last four years, he's won a Super Bowl, and under his direction, the Rams have made the playoffs in six out of eight seasons. He's also turned past fifth-rounders Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua into Pro Bowlers.

Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers: While some fans may think otherwise, an irregular down year doesn't turn up the heat on Shanahan's seat. In eight years, he's taken the 49ers to two Super Bowls, and the team has won two playoff games in four of the previous six years.

Sean Payton, Denver Broncos: Payton has found his quarterback in Bo Nix. The rebuilding Broncos are ahead of schedule with their young signal-caller who reminds his lead skipper of Drew Brees. Denver's 2024 playoff appearance keeps Payton's seat as cool as the other side of the pillow.

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens signed Harbaugh to a three-year extension through 2028. It's safe to say he's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota Vikings: O'Connell helped Sam Darnold shed the bust label for at least a year and turned him into a Pro Bowl player. The Vikings rewarded him with a multiyear extension. He's getting his due respect as one of the league's best offensive play-callers. 

Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers: The Packers run a stable franchise with a low turnover rate at the lead skipper position. They have had three full-time head coaches since 2000. In six years, LaFleur has one losing season (8-9), and he's won 67 percent of his games. His seat is frozen-tundra cold. 

Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders: Quinn's Commanders are ahead of schedule with 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels mentioned among the league's top quarterbacks. After an appearance in the NFC Championship Game, Washington must feel like it hired the right head coach last offseason.

New Cool Seats

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Patriots HC Mike Vrabel

Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders: Carroll has a strong resume. He's one of three coaches to win a national title on the collegiate level and a Super Bowl. Like Jim Harbaugh, he's a program builder, which is exactly what the Raiders need in a leadership position. Owner Mark Davis shouldn't be in any hurry to hire a fourth full-time head coach since 2022.

Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots: Vrabel is beloved in New England. As a player, he won three Super Bowls with the franchise. As a head coach, the 49-year-old has four winning seasons in six years. He will be around New England for quite a while.

Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears: Over the last two offseasons, Johnson was the most coveted head coaching candidate without experience in that position. The Bears caught the big fish in the 2025 hiring cycle, and they will allow the 38-year-old time to build his program.

Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys: Schottenheimer served as an offensive coordinator for two seasons under former Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy. Dallas promoted someone it knows, which bodes well for Schottenheimer's job security. 

Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars kept flirting with Coen until he snuck out on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and said yes to them. Jacksonville even ditched general manager Trent Baalke to help its chances of hiring the 39-year-old. The Jags didn't go through all that trouble to fire him after one or two years.

Aaron Glenn, New York Jets: Glenn is a beloved former Jets Pro Bowler, but you always wonder about meddling, impulsive team owners like Woody Johnson. However, Gang Green gave Adam Gase two full seasons, and his teams had a combined 9-23 record. So, Glenn should have at least two years to show he's fit for the job.

Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints: New Orleans is giving Moore his first chance at being a head coach. In three of the last four seasons, he's called plays for offenses that finished seventh or better in scoring. The Saints will be patient with the 36-year-old. They don't have a one-and-done head coach in their franchise history.

Room Temperature Seats

AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann

Bills HC Sean McDermott

Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions: Last offseason, the Lions signed Campbell to an extension that keeps him under contract through the 2027 season. He's safe in Detroit for now, but his team went one-and-done in the playoffs as the NFC's No. 1 seed last year. With more wins come higher expectations.

Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills: Like Campbell, McDermott is under contract through the 2027 campaign, and his team is one of the league's best. On his watch, the Bills have won five consecutive AFC East titles, but they haven't advanced past the AFC Championship Game. He has to get past the Kansas City Chiefs soon, or the team may look for someone else to do it.

Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks: Any time a new head coach fires one of his coordinators, you must consider the urgency factor. Macdonald fired OC Ryan Grubb after their first season together. If he flubs his second choice in an offensive play-caller, the Seahawks may see him as the bigger problem.

DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans: Like Macdonald, Ryans fired his offensive coordinator this offseason. Despite leading the Texans to back-to-back AFC South titles, he must get the OC position right. If not, the Texans could pursue a head coach with an offensive background to develop franchise quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Since taking over for Bruce Arians, Bowles has a 27-24 record as a head coach, which is decent, but the Buccaneers could be better in one of the league's worst divisions. Moreover, Bowles has a defensive background, yet he fielded a middling unit that ranked 18th in yards and 16th in scoring last season. He must do better on his side of the ball, so the offense doesn't get all the credit for Tampa Bay's wins.

Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons: Morris deserves some heat for sticking with Kirk Cousins too long last season. Yet, if his offensive coordinator Zac Robinson helps Michael Penix Jr. take a significant second-year leap, we can overlook last year's quarterback decision. However, with a 29-47 record as a head coach, Morris has to get his second winning season as a lead skipper soon. 

Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans: Before Mike Vrabel's tenure (2018-2023), Mike Mularkey had two full seasons, and his predecessor, Ken Whisenhunt, didn't finish his second year as Titans head coach. By the way, Callahan is matched with new general manager Mike Borgonzi. If Tennessee doesn't show notable improvement, the new front-office executive may want to hire his own head coach.

Warm Seats

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

Steelers HC Mike Tomlin

Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers: Canales took a tough job, not just because of the roster he inherited last offseason. You also have to consider how impulsive owner David Tepper has been in recent years. 

Former Panthers head coach Matt Rhule didn't finish his third season. Canales' predecessor, Frank Reich, didn't even complete his first term in Carolina. The Panthers made small strides in Canales' first year. He needs to get them closer to .500, or Tepper may reach for the eject button.

Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals: Gannon helped the Cardinals double their wins from 2023 to 2024. His team is trending in the right direction. 

That said, he's entering a crucial third season in which he cannot take a step backward with two-time Pro Bowl quarterback Kyler Murray, Pro Bowl tight end Trey McBride, back-to-back 1,000-plus-yard rusher James Conner, budding wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and an improving defense.

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers: Last June, the Steelers signed Tomlin to a three-year extension, which should have cooled his seat. However, Pittsburgh hasn't won a playoff game since the 2016 campaign, losing in the AFC Wild Card Round in four of the previous five seasons. 

At some point, the Steelers must demand more from their long-tenured head coach. If Tomlin has his first losing season in 19 years, it could mark the beginning of his end in Pittsburgh.

Heated Seats

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Bengals HC Zac Taylor

Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts: Steichen enters a crucial third season with the Colts. He's a .500 head coach whose team isn't excelling on his side of the ball.

As an offensive coordinator, the 39-year-old fielded the third-ranked offense in scoring and total yards for the 2022 season with the Philadelphia Eagles. Between 2023 and 2024, his offense fell from 10th to 17th in scoring. Now, he has two disappointing past first-rounders, Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones, battling for the starting quarterback job.

Steichen may strike out in Indianapolis because of his uninspiring quarterback situation as the Colts try to escape mediocrity. 

Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins: Initially, McDaniel drew praise for his offensive play-calling wizardry, but that's worn off a bit. Now, the Dolphins are trying to shed the label of being a "soft" team that struggles in cold temperatures.

As Miami head coach, the 42-year-old has a solid 28-23 record, but the team is 0-2 in playoff games on his watch. If the Dolphins miss the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and continue to draw criticism for their lack of mental toughness, he may be looking for a new job next offseason.

Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals: Is Taylor a good coach, or does he benefit from having one of the league's best quarterbacks in Joe Burrow to clean up all the messes? It's a fair question when you consider his 46-52-1 head coaching record.

Also, with a healthy Burrow playing at an elite level and wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase winning the receiving triple crown, the Bengals still missed the playoffs with a 9-8 record last season. Sure, you can blame Cincinnati's below-average defense, but good coaches must find a way to win games with high-level offensive talent, especially if that's their area of expertise.

The Bengals signed Chase and Tee Higgins to massive extensions this offseason. They hired a new defensive coordinator who's also their former linebackers coach, Al Golden.

If Cincinnati misses the playoffs for the fifth time in seven years under Taylor, expect the team to hire a new head coach.

Blazing Hot Seats

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Bengals HC Kevin Stefanski

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns: Stefanski has two 11-win seasons, and he won Coach of the Year after both those campaigns in 2020 and 2023. However, Cleveland hasn't won a playoff game since the 2020 campaign, and the team has finished third or fourth in the AFC North in four of five terms on his watch.

Moreover, the 42-year-old hasn't been able to maximize Deshaun Watson's talent after the quarterback put together three Pro Bowl seasons with the Houston Texans.

Last season, the Browns hit rock bottom with a 3-14 finish. Because of Watson's recent Achilles injuries, Stefanski—an offensive head coach—must figure out the quarterback position. As of now, Kenny Pickett is the front-runner to start under center.

Stefanski is the Browns' longest-tenured head coach since Bill Belichick led the team for five years between 1991 and 1995, but he may not get another term if Cleveland remains in the AFC North cellar.

Brian Daboll, New York Giants: Daboll has the hottest seat among NFL head coaches. This offseason, team brass needed time to decide on his job security, which is a clear sign of trouble. 

According to ESPN's Jordan Raanan, multiple Giants players were "surprised" that Daboll retained his job, even though they're "fine" with the decision.

He hasn't lost the locker room, though a third consecutive losing season could change that. He earned trust in his first season with the Giants, leading Big Blue to a 9-7-1 finish and a playoff appearance. 

However, as an offensive coach, he has failed the team. The Giants have been one of the league's lowest-scoring clubs over the last two years, ranking 30th and 31st in points in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Under Daboll, quarterback Daniel Jones regressed, losing his starting job and roster spot last November.

If the Giants have a slow start to the 2025 season, Daboll may not finish the campaign.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.