Duke Cruises to Final Four as Clear Title Favorite Even in All-Chalk Tournament

In what was supposed to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth showdown that rivaled a certain unforgettable game played in Philadelphia in 1992 for all-time Elite Eight greatness, the mighty No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils put the No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide in a meat locker for 40 minutes for an 85-65 victory.

Great offense. Better defense. Alley-oops and shots altered by Khaman Maluach. Kon Knueppel balling out while Mark Sears spun out. Cooper Flagg kind of quietly finishing with 16, nine and three. Duke did it all, making one of the six or seven best teams in the country look completely helpless.

Alabama kept it relatively close until the final five minutes, but the outcome was never really in doubt, Duke's defense was just a completely different animal from the complete lack of resistance that BYU offered the Crimson Tide on Thursday.

Now the Blue Devils are off to San Antonio, for what's starting to feel like a "Championship or Bust" sort of story of historical dominance.

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Throughout this 2025 men's NCAA tournament, the inescapable narrative has been the complete and utter superiority of the favorites.

Completely ignoring/forgetting the fact that we had a 4-5-5-9 Final Four seeding situation just two years ago, or that a Steph Curry-led Davidson was the only team seeded lower than a No. 3 to reach the Elite Eight in 2007, 2008 or 2009, everyone has been using this chalk-a-palooza as a means of pushing their "NIL is ruining college basketball" agenda.

The first round was one of the most upset-devoid since seeding became a thing in 1979. (Even No. 12 Colorado State knocking off No. 5 Memphis wasn't really an upset; nor was 30-win Drake winning as a disrespected-by-the-selection-committee No. 11 seed.)

By the end of the first weekend, there wasn't a single Cinderella story left to be told.

The better-seeded team won each and every Sweet 16 game.

Now halfway through the Elite Eight, it's No. 1 seed Florida and No. 1 seed Duke into the Final Four, with No. 1 seed Houston and No. 1 seed Auburn hoping to join them on Sunday for what would be just the second "All-Ones" Final Four in tournament history. (It also happened in 2008.)

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And, friends, these aren't your standard No. 1 seeds.

As far as KenPom is concerned, the worst No. 1 seed of the bunch right now is Auburn with an adjusted efficiency margin of +35.27. But were it not for the other three teams ahead of them right now, that would be the sixth-best rating in KenPom history, which now spans 29 years.

Here's that current leaderboard for you:

1. 1999 Duke Blue Devils (43.01)
2. 2025 Duke Blue Devils (39.63)
3. 2001 Duke Blue Devils (37.32)
4. 2015 Kentucky Wildcats (36.91)
5. 2021 Gonzaga Bulldogs (36.48)
6. 2024 Connecticut Huskies (36.43)
7. 2025 Florida Gators (36.22)
8. 2025 Houston Cougars (35.43)
9. 2025 Auburn Tigers (35.27)

It's a preposterous cream of the crop, and it very well could be the best Final Four of all-time if those top-seeded felines take care of business on Sunday.

With all due respect to Florida, Houston and Auburn, though, Duke is the overwhelming favorite to cut down the nets in San Antonio.

The betting lines don't adequately reflect that. Even after smoking Alabama, DraftKings only has Duke at +105 to win it all, suggesting it is slightly more likely the Blue Devils will lose one more game than win the next two.

If they don't finish the fight at this point, though, it truly would be shocking.

Their offense is historically efficient, with a 130.1 O-Rating on KenPom that ranks best in the site's history. And though they are merely fourth this season in D-Rating, they just held Alabama's 91+ PPG offense to 65 bleeping points.

Those year-to-date numbers don't even do justice to what this team has become, either.

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With five freshmen now playing key roles in this rotation, go back and watch some of those early games against Kansas, Kentucky and Arizona—even the win over Auburn—and they're almost unrecognizable.

Cooper Flagg was undeniably great upon arrival in Durham, but has also undeniably grown by leaps and bounds over the past four months, to the point where it feels like he is destined to become an NBA MVP at some point in the not too distant future.

Kon Knueppel was a ghost in that December win over Auburn; a detriment in the losses to Kentucky and Kansas at a combined 1-for-16 from three-point range. He's now a force on both ends of the floor, his quest for the fabled 50-40-90 season overshadowed by Flagg's stardom. Knueppel scored 41 this weekend in Newark.

Khaman Maluach was almost unplayable early in the year, a far cry from the weapon he has become. In the back-to-back wins over Auburn and Louisville in early December, he went for a combined four points and five rebounds with no blocks. Conversely, he had 27 points, 15 rebounds and six blocks against Arizona and Alabama this week.

And while neither Patrick Ngongba nor Isaiah Evans was much of a factor in the Elite Eight victory over the Crimson Tide, they've both become major contributors over the past two months. You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who would be surprised if either one played a huge role off the bench in the title game, a la Grayson Allen vs. Wisconsin as a freshman one decade ago.

Those are just the freshmen, too. The elder statesmen have also improved.

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Junior lead guard Tyrese Proctor has been red hot since the ACC tournament championship game. Sion James has been the unsung hero of this team all season long. Even Caleb Foster has had some big stretches off the bench at the end of what had been a frustrating sophomore season for him.

Got to also believe that Maliq Brown—with another full week to rest and rehab that injured shoulder before they play again—will be out there in a bigger capacity on the defensive end of the floor in the Final Four.

It shouldn't be possible for a team that has won 31 of its last 32 games to just now be hitting its peak, but everything does seem to be coming up Blue Devils in advance of what will be their first Final Four of the Jon Scheyer era.

Scheyer's coaching career is just beginning, though.

For Flagg's lasting legacy in (what we simply must presume is) his only year in the college ranks, this is now further than Zion Williamson made it six years ago. Assuming he is named the Wooden Award winner, it'll just be Flagg and Kentucky's Anthony Davis in 2012 on the list of freshmen to both win that award and play in a Final Four.

Chances are, he'll also win the national championship and be named Most Outstanding Player en route to becoming the No. 1 pick like AD 13 years ago.