Predicting the Most Improved College Basketball Teams in the 2015-16 Season
Here's what a great recruiting class can do for you these days in college basketball. Last year, a team that was a No. 8 seed won its first 38 games, and a team that had lost in the round of 64 the previous season followed that up with a national title.
The constant turnover in college basketball allows for drastic improvements in one offseason, and it's not just the influx of stud freshmen. Transfers are another way to improve quickly. And sometimes, the old-fashioned way of just letting a roster mature can lead to a team making the leap.
With rosters pretty much set, I took a look at seven teams that should be markedly improved from last season. In some cases, such as Duke a year ago, this could be a really good team becoming elite or simply one that was mediocre making the jump to the NCAA tourney.
Michigan
1 of 7
The Wolverines had some of the worst injury luck in the country last year and should be much better without any real significant changes to the roster.
The bad injury luck turned into two positives for this season. Caris LeVert is back for his senior year; had he not injured his foot, he'd likely be in the NBA. With LeVert and point guard Derrick Walton missing a combined 27 games, coach John Beilein also had the opportunity to figure out he has some usable pieces that were stuck on the end of the bench at the start of last year.
Aubrey Dawkins was the one major find. He emerged as the team's best shooter and a better scoring option than expected. He shot 43.2 percent from deep and had a three-game stretch late in the year when he scored 21 points in a loss to Northwestern, 31 points in a win over Rutgers and 18 points in a first-round win over Illinois in the Big Ten tourney.
A 2-3-4 combination of Dawkins, LeVert and Zak Irvin (as the small-ball 4) gives Beilein a fun trio to build his offense around.
Beilein also has more depth than he's ever had at Michigan. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman was the other freshman along with Dawkins who proved capable of contributing. Spike Albrecht is still around. Sophomore Kameron Chatman had a disappointing freshman year, especially shooting the ball (32 percent), but he's still an intriguing weapon as a small-ball 4. And then at the 5, sophomores Ricky Doyle and Mark Donnal are back, plus redshirt freshman D.J. Wilson could also factor in at that spot.
The one addition to the roster is Duncan Robinson, a 6'8" small forward who sat out last season after transferring from Division III Williams College. I watched Michigan practice in the preseason last year, and Williams immediately stood out in shooting drills. I may not have seen a purer jump shot all season, except for maybe R.J. Hunter.
It's a big leap in levels, but Robinson was awesome as a freshman, averaging 17.1 points per game and shooting 45.6 percent from deep on a team that made the D-III title game.
Robinson also provides some lineup flexibility as he can play the 3 and is tall enough (6'8") to play a small-ball 4. The Wolverines will have shooting in spades. Mix in some Beilein offensive wizardry and you have a dark-horse pick to claim the Big Ten title that most expect Maryland to win.
With better injury luck, Michigan is in that next-tier group with Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue and Wisconsin. And at the very least, the Wolverines should be back in the NCAA tournament.
Creighton
2 of 7
Creighton has a chance to get back into the NCAA tournament after a lumbering rebuilding season in Year 2 of the Big East.
No one really expected the Bluejays to do much after losing their entire starting lineup, including Doug McDermott, and so a 4-14 record in the Big East wasn't much of a surprise. This upcoming season is a pivotal one for the program and the elder McDermott, who needs to prove he can win in the Big East without his son.
The reason for optimism is the presence of two impact transfers: point guard Mo Watson Jr. from Boston and stretch 4 Cole Huff by way of Nevada.
Watson is the kind of guard who makes everyone around him better. He averaged 7.1 assists per game two years ago at Boston. Huff, who averaged 12.4 points per game as a sophomore at Nevada, gives the Bluejays the go-to guy in the post that they lacked last year.
But the strength of this team, similar to the group led by Dougie McBuckets, is the ability to put four or five shooters on the floor and stretch defenses out.
Huff shot 40.3 percent from distance as a sophomore, and the other projected starters—Isaiah Zierden and James Milliken on the wing and Toby Hegner at center—can all shoot the three. Watson is not a great shooter (38 percent from three), but he should have plenty of space to penetrate and create.
Zierden got off to a great start last year before a knee injury ended his season in January, and Milliken had an awesome finish, averaging 17.0 points per game over Creighton's final four games.
California
3 of 7
Cuonzo Martin is looking like a really smart coaching hire by California even after a disappointing first season in Berkeley. That's because he went and signed two 5-star prospects in Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown, per 247Sports.
The addition of Rabb and Brown to any roster would signal improvement. What's so promising about this upcoming year for Cal is the existing talent was already solid. Tyrone Wallace, Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird are all decent perimeter scorers.
Brown gives the Bears another scorer who can create off the bounce, which should take some of the pressure off Wallace. He's talented enough to be a go-to guy as a freshman and gets to share that role with Wallace.
Rabb's post-up game is polished for his age with the ability to score with either hand over either shoulder. There were games on the grassroots circuit when he would disappear, and it will be important that the Bears make a concerted effort to get him the ball.
How all these parts fit together will be interesting—there's only so many shots to go around that perimeter—but on talent alone, the Bears are right there with Arizona at the top of the Pac-12.
In fact, this is a good year in the league to be an up-and-comer. Arizona still has talent but lost several starters. Utah is trying to replace Delon Wright. UCLA lost Kevon Looney and Norman Powell. Oregon is the only tourney team from a year ago that is as good or better on paper, and that's not a given with the graduation of Joseph Young.
Anything less than an NCAA tourney bid for Cal will be a disappointment.
Texas A&M
4 of 7
The Aggies are the second-best team in the SEC on paper, and if everything comes together just right, they could have the goods to challenge Kentucky for the conference title.
That may seem like a bit of a leap, but the talent gap between UK and A&M isn't all that wide. Billy Kennedy's staff pulled in a class that would have been a decent haul even at UK. The Aggies got two highly rated big men in Tyler Davis and Elijah Thomas, and only one of the two will have to start with the return of second-leading scorer Jalen Jones.
A&M also added a potential future star on the wing in D.J. Hogg, who at 6'7" can do a little bit of everything. As a freshman, all he needs to be is a nice complementary piece who can add some perimeter shooting. The fourth player in the class is Admon Gilder, another top 100 recruit on 247Sports, will add perimeter depth.
The reason the Aggies don't need too much right away from their freshmen perimeter players is that several proven guys are already in place, led by Danuel House and Alex Caruso. House led the Aggies in scoring last season at 14 points per game and shot 40 percent from deep. Caruso is a 6'5" playmaker who can play multiple perimeter spots and stuff the stat sheet—he averaged 9.1 points, 5.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game last year.
A&M has depth, shooting and plenty of size. This is not only the profile of an NCAA tourney team, but one that could get past the first weekend.
Memphis
5 of 7
Memphis was severely lacking talent and experience on the perimeter, but help is on the way.
The addition of Alabama guard Ricky Tarrant and the Lawson brothers are huge upgrades. Tarrant, who started his career at Tulane, is a proven scorer. He averaged 13.1 points per game for Alabama last year.
The Lawson brothers give the Tigers scoring, playmaking and some lineup versatility. Both Dedric (6'8") and K.J. (6'7") can play the 4 in smaller lineups, and that should help ease the burn of losing Austin Nichols, who is trying to transfer out, according to CBS Sports.
Josh Pastner also signed two freshman point guards to provide some perimeter depth. The roster is still lacking proven outside shooters, but the Lawson brothers and Shaq Goodwin should be tough enough matchups to push the offense near the top of the AAC.
Considering the Tigers still managed to win 18 games and go 10-8 in the conference without much talent on the perimeter, you'd think the additions should help Pastner's crew to a glitzy record in the league and a return to the NCAA tourney.
Florida State
6 of 7
The Seminoles found something special in Xavier Rathan-Mayes. You might remember the Canadian guard from putting up 30 points in just over four minutes at the end of a loss against Miami.
What Florida State was missing a year ago was a sidekick to Rathan-Mayes, and coach Leonard Hamilton solved that by bringing in Dwayne Bacon. He is one of the best scorers in the 2015 class and an explosive athlete with the ability to be a lockdown defender. He will make the Seminoles better on both ends.
Hamilton also signed three shooting guards—two high school guys and one JUCO transfer—to give his offense more firepower. The two high school guys, Malik Beasley and Terance Mann, have potential as scorers.
The Seminoles are traditionally a great defensive team under Hamilton and should improve with their entire rotation returning. Hamilton has the athletes and size in this group to develop into one of the top defenses in the ACC. The league will be tough, but going 8-10 in ACC play last year suggested this team wasn't far off. With the strong recruiting class, look for the Seminoles to climb into the top half of the league.
Maryland
7 of 7
The Terps had a nice season last year as a bit of a surprising upstart, finishing in second place in the Big Ten, winning 28 games and getting a No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. But the record was a little better than the product.
The Terps ranked only 32nd in kenpom.com's rating system, and those numbers suggest they were not dominant on either end—finishing 58th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency. To their credit, they were clutch—they went 12-1 in games decided by six points or less—and probably benefited some from the Big Ten being slightly down.
This upcoming season Maryland will be near the top of almost every poll. Peeling back the layers of what happened last year could suggest a top-five ranking is too high, but the roster improved. One could even argue that the Terps have the best starting five in college basketball.
The biggest difference is the interior scoring punch that Maryland now has. Mark Turgeon added two legit back-to-the-basket scorers in freshman Diamond Stone and Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter. Last season, the Terps' only legit post-up option was Dez Wells. Stone and Carter should also help in the rebounding department, an area where Maryland struggled last year.
Melo Trimble and Jared Nickens figure to improve as sophomores. Trimble was already one of the best point guards in college basketball as a freshman, and Nickens proved to be a solid spot-up shooter in his first year.
Really, the only question marks with Maryland is perimeter depth and how Jake Layman will perform at small forward, assuming he makes the move to the 3 with Carter sliding into the starting power forward spot. Layman excelled as a stretch 4 last year, and it'll be an adjustment playing most of his minutes at the 3.
Assuming the pieces work together, the Terps could go from surprising upstart to a legitimate contender for the national title.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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