Teams on Upset Alert in Day 1 of the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament
The first full day of the 2025 men's NCAA tournament is upon us, and that means a fresh bracket full of upset possibilities.
It's difficult to call a No. 9 or No. 10 seed winning its first game much of an upset, so the prime candidates for an early Cinderella story generally live on the Nos. 11, 12 and 13 seed lines, though two years ago we saw No. 15 Princeton and No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson survive their first-round matchup.
There are two No. 11 seeds and two No. 12 seeds that all look like prime candidates for a potential upset bid during Thursday's action.
Ahead we've highlighted the four better seeds from those matchups as teams on upset alert, with a breakdown of what the favorite needs to do to win and what the upset-minded team needs to do to stay alive.
Also included is the moneyline as of Wednesday for each game via DraftKings.
Which programs will survive Thursday's upset watch?
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BYU Cougars (East Region, No. 6 Seed)
1 of 4
Opponent: No. 11 VCU
Moneyline: -142
The BYU Cougars played their best basketball of the season down the stretch, winning eight in a row to wrap up the regular season and knocking off Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament before losing by 20 points to No. 1 seed Houston in the semifinals.
When their offense is clicking, they are one of the best teams in the country, with a 21-1 record in games they score at least 75 points.
They have the No. 11 offense in the nation, according to KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric, and a go-to star in Richie Saunders who averages 16.0 points and shoots a blistering 43.3 percent from beyond the arc.
However, VCU could prove to be a less-than-ideal opponent given their desire to slow things down and play in the half court.
The flip side of that impressive 21-1 record by the Cougars in games they reach 75 points is an ugly 3-8 record when they fail to hit that mark.
Meanwhile, the Rams have only surrendered 75 or more points four times in 34 games, and their 62.4 points allowed per game was the eighth-lowest average in the nation. Despite the upside BYU has shown over the past month, this one truly looks like a coin toss.
Clemson Tigers (Midwest Region, No. 5 Seed)
2 of 4
Opponent: No. 12 McNeese State
Moneyline: -345
The Clemson Tigers made an unexpected run to the Elite Eight as a No. 6 seed a year ago, and this year's team is equally dangerous.
The Tigers are a well-balanced squad, ranking inside the top 25 in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. They also ended the regular season on a roll, going 14-1 over their final 15 games and beating bubble team SMU in the ACC tournament before falling to Louisville.
However, a closer look at their resume raises some red flags.
They beat Duke, Kentucky and North Carolina at home but did not win a single road or neutral-site game all year against a team that made the NCAA tournament field.
They face a McNeese State squad that was also a No. 12 seed in last year's tournament, led by former LSU head coach Will Wade.
The Cowboys hung around with Alabama (72-64) and Mississippi State (66-63) in nonconference play, and they have a stingy defense that limited opponents to 64.0 points per game and 40.2 percent shooting from the field.
Michigan Wolverines (South Region, No. 5 Seed)
3 of 4
Opponent: No. 12 UC San Diego
Moneyline: -148
Despite their inclusion in this article, there is a solid case to be made that the Michigan Wolverines were under-seeded after running through Purdue (No. 4 seed), Maryland (No. 4 seed) and Wisconsin (No. 3 seed) on their way to the Big Ten tournament title.
They went 12-7 overall in Quad 1 games, and with seven road wins during conference play, they have also successfully proved they can perform away from Crisler Arena.
However, their turnover woes are a potential recipe for disaster.
They average 14.1 turnovers per game and will be facing a UC San Diego defense capable of wreaking havoc. The Tritons average 9.9 steals and force 16.0 turnovers per contest, and they rode that defense to a 30-4 record and the No. 37 spot in KenPom's rankings before the start of the NCAA tournament.
The Tritons are thin on experience against top-tier competition, but they are a metrics darling, and their most glaring weakness—perimeter defense—is unlikely to be a major factor against a Wolverines team that shoots 33.4 percent from three-point range.
Missouri Tigers (West Region, No. 6 Seed)
4 of 4
Opponent: No. 11 Drake
Moneyline: -270
The Missouri Tigers have one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 84.5 points per game and ranking No. 5 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric.
They scored over 80 points in all but eight games this year but went just 3-5 when they failed to reach that number. Slowing things down and not letting the offense build momentum will be a key to beating the Tigers, and their first-round opponent does that as well as anyone.
The Drake Bulldogs rank 364th out of 364 teams in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric, grinding things to a halt in the half court similar to the 2017-18 Loyola-Chicago team that made a surprise run to the Final Four.
The Bulldogs have allowed 80 points just once all season, and that came in an overtime victory over Indiana State, so they could be the perfect team to slow down the Tigers and pull off an upset.
After beating Kansas State and Vanderbilt during nonconference play, they have also proved they won't shrink against major-conference competition, and a run to the Sweet 16 and beyond is a legitimate possibility.
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