10 NBA Free Agency Predictions for 2025 Offseason
The 2024-25 NBA regular season is coming to a close, but much will be decided over the final weeks, from playoff matchups to draft positions. How teams fare in the postseason and/or the draft lottery will set the tone for the summer.
With a projected salary cap of $154.6 million, few teams will have spending power this summer. The Brooklyn Nets have a near monopoly on cap room, although the Detroit Pistons could have enough to add to their playoff core.
Several big-name players have options to hit free agency, but where will they go if teams have nothing but the mid-level exception to offer?
Here, we've put together 10 early free-agency predictions for the 2025 offseason.
Naz Reid to Detroit Pistons
1 of 10
The Pistons project to have about $24.6 million in cap space if they renounce their rights to Malik Beasley, Dennis Schröder and Tim Hardaway Jr. Assuming Jaden Ivey returns to full strength after a season-ending leg fracture, that money could go to the Minnesota Timberwolves forward/center Naz Reid, who won Sixth Man of the Year last season.
Reid could augment current big men Jalen Duran and Isaiah Stewart, or he could make Stewart expendable. However, depth is not a negative for a franchise looking to turn this year's playoff run into an annual event.
Minnesota has full Bird rights on Reid and can pay him anything up to a max salary ($38.7 million), assuming he declines his $15 million player option. The Timberwolves could outbid the Pistons, but they already have a bloated payroll with Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle (player option) under contract. If they do re-sign Reid, how would they replace the aging Mike Conley at point guard?
That's not Detroit's problem. The Pistons' prerogative is to apply pressure with a lucrative four-year, $105.9 million contract offer. They would then have the $8.8 million room mid-level exception to spend, perhaps to retain one of Beasley, Schröder or Hardaway.
Josh Giddey to Brooklyn Nets
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The Nets can approach the offseason in several ways. They could use cap room to take on other teams' unwanted contracts amidst a longer-term rebuild (like the Washington Wizards have been). Otherwise, they could pursue the best talent they can lure with their cap space.
Teams usually hesitate to go after restricted free agents since their cap flexibility can get tied up for days while other franchises pick off the best unrestricted free agents. However, since the Nets are the only team this offseason with significant cap space, they can afford to hand out offer sheets—holding up the rest of the league's free-agent process—until they get an answer.
If the Pistons are capped out after landing Naz Reid, the Nets can give Josh Giddey (restricted) an offer sheet that's as unattractive as possible to scare the Chicago Bulls off fro mmatching. Perhaps a four-year, $120.3 million descending contract starting at $32.5 million would be enough. Brooklyn could give Giddey a 15 percent trade bonus and 50 percent of his annual salary before each season, too.
The hope would be that Chicago balks at the immediate expense and the total price tag. If $120.3 million is too rich for the Nets, they must find the right number that works for them and not the Bulls.
Jonathan Kuminga to Brooklyn Nets
3 of 10
After adding a point guard in Giddey, the Nets can turn their attention to another restricted free agent.
Jonathan Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors were far apart in extension talks this past fall. The Nets could gamble that a solid offer is enough to pry the forward loose for less than he wants but more than Golden State will pay.
They could give him a four-year, $105.5 million offer sheet starting at $28.5 million (if it descends). Brooklyn can include a trade kicker and advances to try to swing Kuminga its way.
The Nets need to do their homework with Giddey and Kuminga, as these two deals would leave them with about $4.7 million in additional cap room if they need to sweeten one of those offers. The contracts can also stay flat or climb instead of descend, though there's a limit to where the deals become less favorable to Brooklyn.
The Warriors can match any offer that the Nets make, but with luxury taxes, aprons and a heavy commitment to Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green over the next two years, they may have a limit on how much they'd spend to retain Kuminga.
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Cam Thomas Back with Brooklyn Nets
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After landing two big free-agent targets, the Nets could then turn to their own.
Cam Thomas will have a $12.1 million cap hold this offseason. Since other teams don't have enough cap space to pry him away, he could be stuck signing an offer sheet for another team's $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which Brooklyn would surely match.
However, the Nets may not want to battle with Thomas in negotiations. If they offered him a three-year, $69 million deal, can Thomas turn away that much salary in the hope he gets a better contract in 2026? Brooklyn would be gambling on him deciding against it.
The shorter deal would give Thomas a quicker reentry into free agency. The Nets might want to tack on a fourth year with team control. If so, that last year might need to climb to $23 million instead of descending to $18 million.
With Giddey, Kuminga and Thomas at these numbers, the Nets would have $4.7 million left in cap room and the $8.8 million room mid-level exception to spend without exceeding the $187.8 million luxury-tax threshold.
Guerschon Yabusele to San Antonio Spurs
5 of 10
Like most of the NBA, the Philadelphia 76ers were impressed by Guerschon Yabusele's performance in the 2024 Olympics. They got him to sign a one-year, veteran-minimum contract this past offseason, but that could make it difficult for them to re-sign him.
Since the Sixers only have Yabusele's non-Bird rights, the most they can offer him is a mid-level exception. If they're close to the first apron (projected at $195.9 million), they will only have the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE instead of the $14.1 million non-taxpayer MLE.
Since Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8.4 million), Andre Drummond ($5 million) and Eric Gordon ($3.5 million) have player options, the 76ers don't have complete control over their payroll this offseason. Additionally, they have a restricted free agent in Quentin Grimes who may command a hefty payday thanks to his late-season breakout.
Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs have one of Yabusele's French teammates in Victor Wembanayama (assuming he recovers fully from the deep vein thrombosis that prematurely ended his season) and the full non-taxpayer MLE at its disposal. The Spurs can offer Yabusele a four-year deal worth up to $60.6 million, which the Sixers may not be able to reach based on their proximity to the aprons.
Quentin Grimes Back to Philadelphia 76ers
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The 76ers may need to choose between keeping Guerschon Yabusele or Quentin Grimes this offseason.
Not only did the Dallas Mavericks trade Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers, but they also gave away Grimes to the Sixers for Caleb Martin (who's turning 30 before next season). Martin has played only five games for Dallas thus far and is averaging 4.6 points per game while shooting 16.7 shooting from three-point range.
Meanwhile, Grimes has been sensational in Philadelphia through 20 games, scoring 22.2 points while shooting 38.7 percent from deep. The Nets are the biggest threat for Grimes and could choose to chase him over one of Giddey or Kuminga.
But if everything predicted here comes to pass, including the Sixers accepting that the Spurs will outbid them for Yabusele, they may keep Grimes on a cheaper, multi-year deal. Perhaps they could get him on a four-year, $78.4 million deal starting at $17.5 million (probably with a player option since he's taking a lower rate in a down market).
The Nets are under the tax and can afford to be more generous with Cam Thomas, but the Sixers have a heftier payroll. They will only go so far with Grimes, especially if he has no alternatives other than spurning life-changing money with a one-year deal.
Fred VanVleet Back to Houston Rockets
7 of 10
The Rockets took a significant step forward this year, in part because of the leadership of Fred VanVleet. Since no suitors are armed with competitive spending power this offseason, they'll probably decline his $44.9 million team option and look to do what the Minnesota Timberwolves did with Rudy Gobert—a multiyear deal at a lower price to continue a fruitful marriage.
The question is how high? A three-year, $97.2 million contract starting at $30 million might do. Houston would probably want another team option for the last year. That figure could dip, especially if the Rockets need room to execute trades while staying under one of the aprons. Perhaps it'd fall to a $25 million starting salary ($81 million total with a team option).
Myles Turner Back with Indiana Pacers
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The running theme continues since the best available free agents won't have anywhere to go unless their current teams are willing to execute a sign-and-trade. The Pacers have all the leverage with Turner unless the Nets or Pistons chase him.
Indiana is arguably the most successful franchise over the last few decades at competing at a high level without paying any luxury taxes. Assuming the Pacers don't radically change their financial approach, Turner may receive an offer lower than he's hoping. He'll be fortunate to get a starting salary of $18 million since that could require Indiana to find a small trade to get under the tax.
Turner might prefer a player-friendly deal for three years, with a player option on the third, as that opens the possibility of an extension before the final season is over. A one-year deal comes with restrictions, so pencil in Turner back to Indiana for three years and $58.3 million, with an option to end his deal early.
The Pacers may look to shop players like Obi Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin to consolidate talent and stay under the tax, which could help Turner get a starting salary above $20 million.
James Harden Back with Los Angeles Clippers
9 of 10
The Los Angeles Clippers are a scrappy, defensive-minded squad led by two elite (but older) scorers in Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. While Leonard was recovering from a knee injury at the start of the year, Harden helped keep the team afloat. The hope is for a promising playoff run now that both are healthy.
Long-term, it's hard to say which of the Clippers' players need to be on the roster in a few years. A reset may eventually come, but it looks like L.A.'s path is similar to that of the Warriors with Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green. The Clippers would likely prioritize lining up Harden with Leonard's final year in 2026-27.
Look for Harden to decline his $36.3 million player option to get a similar figure but on a two-year deal to line up with Leonard, perhaps at $72-75 million.
LeBron James Back with Los Angeles Lakers
10 of 10
LeBron James has a $52.6 million player option with the Los Angeles Lakers. When the Lakers acquired Luka Dončić, many around the league initially thought that James was on his way out with the franchise. That may still be the case, but he and Dončić have chemistry that may keep the 40-year-old James content.
James can opt out to demand up to $54.1 million, but that could limit L.A.'s ability to add players to bolster its championship hopes. Look for James to turn down his option and sign another one-plus-one deal (two years with a second-year player option) with the Lakers.
The bigger question is whether James will take enough of a paycut to allow the Lakers to use a mid-level exception. Perhaps a two-year, $100 million deal is a viable compromise for both sides, although James may not agree to taking that much less than the max.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him @EricPincus on X and Bluesky.
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