Incoming 5-Star Freshmen Most Likely to Stay in School for Multiple Seasons
These guys are like the famed Mackinaw peaches from the Seinfeld days.
Ripe for, say, more than two weeks per year—it still bears noting that some of these incoming freshmen won't bestow their talents on the college game for very long.
It's just not the way the college game works these days. Don't hate the player, hate the game, right?
In this slideshow we'll examine players who were among the top 25 in the 2015 signing class, per 247Sports, and look at which guys will be more than one-and-done sensations. These are all 5-star talents.
Of course, there are myriad circumstances that will come into deciding their futures beyond the 2015-16 season. Health, playing time, even NCAA violations (Cliff Alexander of Kansas comes to mind after last season). And, hey, some of these guys may just grow to love the college life.
The beauty is, NCAA insurance policies can entice some players to return and not feel so vulnerable by sticking around.
Yet we know some guys are already gone. A certain LSU newcomer is already getting rave reviews from the likes of ESPN's Jay Bilas. Others will follow, for better or worse.
Of the 22 5-star players from 247Sport's 2014 class, only seven are still in the college game (and only North Carolina's Justin Jackson carried a top-10 rank).
Maybe it's just wishful thinking that some guys could enrich the college ranks for more than a year. But here are 10 players who may have the most compelling incentives to stay for a second helping of training table and ball.
Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV
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We know the NBA draft is case-by-case.
Just because one player picked from a school struggles doesn't mean that another player in a future year will automatically be judged the same way.
But lumped together, it has to be an interesting time for Zimmerman.
The homegrown product knows about the glory and the torment of playing for UNLV.
In 2013, Anthony Bennett went from relatively unheralded Canadian-raised freshman to the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft. Sure, he's not exactly panning out. But the hefty paychecks have to help a little.
But then look at Christian Wood. He went from hot-shot recruit to not even getting drafted last month. Surely, muddling through much of an 18-15 season (8-10 in Mountain West regular-season games) didn't help his cause.
So Zimmerman knows he can achieve any individual goals he desires in Las Vegas, but also there's a lot more to producing a basketball future than just showing up for a year and waiting to get picked by an NBA team.
The sleek 7-footer stands to gain from Wood's departure. It'll mean more touches. However, he'll also be surrounded by a capable cast: Goodluck Okonoboh, Dwayne Morgan and 6'8'' Oregon transfer Ben Carter.
Zimmerman will have some pressure on him in town. The fanbase has grown increasingly disenfranchised as sixth-year head coach Dave Rice, also a former player, is just 89-47 and a pedestrian 37-29 in regular-season Mountain West games.
Zimmerman played for Rice's brother, Grant, at Nevada powerhouse Bishop Gorman. So the player knows what he's getting into.
Some success may just leave him clamoring for more and to put himself in a better position for a future draft.
Ivan Rabb, Cal
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Rabb stayed close to home for college, and it might not hurt him to hang around more than one year at Cal.
The 6'10'' freshman from Oakland continued to pursue another top-flight recruit, Jaylen Brown out of Georgia, according to the San Jose Mercury News' Jeff Faraudo. So he wasn't totally intent on being "The Man" in year one.
It will help the Golden Bears, and coach Cuonzo Martin, that all-Pac-12 point guard Tyrone Wallace opted to enjoy a senior year.
Rabb's decision seems like one to create a legacy rather than just pass through one year.
He already has an idea how good that can feel.
The Bishop O’Dowd graduate made a free throw with less than a second left in overtime to win the school's first state title in more than 30 years in March. (He had 19 points and 20 rebounds.)
Cal hasn't been to the NCAA tournament's Sweet 16 since 1997—the year Rabb was born.
Anything short of that may especially entice him to keep trying.
One thing that really could convince him to stay is strength. Rabb is listed at 210 pounds, and he'll need his body to fill out. Perhaps his first college basketball season will prove that.
Henry Ellenson, Marquette
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You have to hand it to Marquette coach Steve Wojciechowski. He had been at his alma mater, Duke, since 1999, and we know the Blue Devils get just about anyone they want.
Taking over the Golden Eagles can be a different story, yet Wojo has a heck of a second-year recruiting class that includes Ellenson, who had an extra perk to stay in-state.
His brother, Wally, transferred from Minnesota. The July 2014 decision meant he redshirted and is eligible to play this season. No wonder younger bro was excited to join MU.
"I felt Marquette was a place where I could make an immediate impact," Ellenson told ESPN, as reported by Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "I feel that I will have an opportunity to play multiple positions and show my versatility. Also, I was the most comfortable with the coaching staff, and a chance to play with my brother was something that was always big to me."
Wally had left Minnesota's basketball team to focus on track and field. Now, he'll return to basketball.
The younger Ellenson may have some major work to do to get in basketball form, though. He broke his left hand March 20, which ended his high school career. It got stuck in a jersey during a state playoff game.
It will be intriguing to see how he develops after the accident.
Marquette will only return five players from last season's roster and only three post players—one being fellow incoming recruit Matt Heldt.
Allonzo Trier, Arizona
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First, we should also admire Trier. He was featured in the New York Times as a sixth-grader.
Now bound for Arizona, he has a wonderful story of determination and discipline. The Arizona Daily Star's Bruce Pascoe recently wrote how Trier graduated in mid-May from high school in Las Vegas and immediately drove to get settled into college life.
But these great stories and traits shouldn't necessarily make him leave the desert any faster.
Right now Trier isn't lighting up mock draft boards. He is 6'4'' and a scorer but not necessarily regarded for blazing speed or otherworldly length, as noted in an ESPN Insider scouting report.
Trier will receive many chances to thrive, even among another one of coach Sean Miller's stud recruiting classes. Trier knows Miller well from their time spent together with USA Basketball.
For better or worse, Trier isn't one to stick around.
Maybe those move-on sirens get turned down in Tucson, as Miller seems to be a fair judge of when Wildcats should leave for the NBA or stick around college.
Derryck Thornton, Duke
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History says Thornton could easily leave Duke after one year.
After all, he'll be replacing Tyus Jones, who played one season in Durham before getting drafted.
What separates Thornton—who is bound to replace Jones at point guard—is that he reclassified.
In other words, he's really a high school senior who will be a focal point of the Blue Devils' run at a repeat national championship (though at 18 years old his age will be on par with typical freshmen).
Jones wound up being named the Final Four's most outstanding player. There is no other point guard on the roster for 2015-16.
The lure of Mike Krzyzewski was more than enough to get Thornton to speed up his high school days. And perhaps Coach K will be in a position to keep him two years. He can play the obvious card of how it'll benefit him physically and emotionally.
It bears noting that Thornton skipped an offer from Louisville's Rick Pitino to bypass a final high school season, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal's Steve Jones.
A slew of interviews show Thornton has no shortage of confidence. But he has been scouted to have some issues with turnovers, which could make for some interesting early times at Duke.
Antonio Blakeney, LSU
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Blakeney isn't the first college-bound player to think he'll win a national title right away.
It's just his words in early July came out of a town not named Lexington or Lawrence, Durham or Chapel Hill...but rather Baton Rouge.
“I think we’re going to win the national championship,” the 6'4'' McDonald's All-American said earlier this month, according to the Advocate's Sheldon Mickles.
Blakeney joins what you might call the "Fab Three" along with the country’s top recruit, 6'10" power forward Ben Simmons, and Brandon Sampson, who changed his mind on St. John's and opted to stay in his hometown.
What in the name of Shaquille O'Neal is happening in the Bayou? LSU hasn't been to a Sweet 16 since 2006. It went to the NCAA tournament last year but lost both stud forwards Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey early to the NBA.
That leaves the freshmen plenty of time to grow together. Of course, it remains to be seen how this plays out—with a lot of talent, and a coach, Johnny Jones, who has a local rep of being a great recruiter but a questionable in-game coach.
Figure Simmons will leave after this year. He's in the line of Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins a couple of years ago. That means Blakeney could become an even greater presence. While, again, every player's situation is unique—Blakeney may keep an eye on how Martin and Mickey do in their first year of pro ball to have a better gauge of what's best for him.
Cheick Diallo, Kansas
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So he may not be a household name yet—it's pronounced Sheck—but there's a good chance Diallo is going to get there fast. He has a 7'4” wingspan and mature physical presence that should help the Jayhawks.
Then again, Cliff Alexander was supposed to use those strong-and-mature traits too. And it just never worked out. He averaged 17 minutes in 28 games while batting a constantly banged-up body, Bill Self's ire and finally the NCAA for charges of a family member receiving illegal benefits.
So KU fans are probably uncertain about how to feel. Alexander, for whatever reason, was a bust. But Coach Self has a history of producing solid big men.
Diallo happened to know one of them. He played against Joel Embiid in high school, according to ESPN recruiting analyst Paul Biancardi, after Diallo signed with KU in the spring.
"I felt like Kansas was the best place for me," said Diallo, a 6'9" power forward. "I can earn playing time right away. I played against Joel Embiid in high school and watched his development. I need to work on a lot of things and feel coach [Bill] Self can help my game. On my visit, the campus was great and the people were nice. I could see myself there."
For how long? Perhaps more than a year, when you factor what Diallo could learn in the mix of an older group. Then he could reasonably become an even bigger skill threat as a sophomore.
Carlton Bragg, Kansas
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And speaking of Kansas...
Bragg is in one of the most interesting positions of any 5-star recruit: He may not start very often, even though the Jayhawks had the worst shooting percentage inside the three-point line of any Bill Self-coached team (48.4 percent) last winter.
The frontcourt will include the aforementioned Cheick Diallo, along with Perry Ellis—who shares a similar offensive style to Bragg.
Jamari Traylor is going to get minutes because of his hustle. It stands to reason Hunter Mickelson and Landen Lucas could get passed by, though Bragg has found a dubious start to his KU career.
His nose was busted in South Korea during a practice, as the team is representing USA at the World University Games.
Self offered the newcomer a start, and it didn't really lead to much despite a blowout of Chile on July 7: 12 minutes, two points and seven rebounds.
Mickelson, who thrived toward the end of last season, had 16 points in as many minutes.
So it's not going to come easy, or apparently right away, for Bragg. But Mickelson's development in the past one-and-a-half years may also be a sign to Bragg of how much a second year could help his cause—and not just jump to the next level on sheer athletic ability.
Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky
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Now, Kentucky's highest-tier players aren't exactly going there yearning to be part of a senior day.
But perhaps there's a chance Briscoe will find good reason for a second season in Lexington.
That's because the 6'3'' New Jersey product is joining a team that, for all it lost after last season, already has an experienced point guard.
Tyler Ulis opted to return, citing "unfinished business."
This has happened before at UK. In 2009-10, John Calipari's first season, his team marched to the Elite Eight with John Wall and Eric Bledsoe sharing the ball. Then Wall was the top pick in the NBA draft, and Bledsoe went 18th.
Could Briscoe return, if he were pegged later in the first round? That might not be enough to bypass guaranteed money. But then again Ulis' return—albeit without the same draft hype as Briscoe gets on mock drafts these days—could inspire him.
Chase Jeter, Duke
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Jeter is listed at one inch shorter, and about 35 pounds lighter, than his predecessor.
That could mean that the freshman from Las Vegas will not have the same impact as Jahlil Okafor did last season. But that doesn't mean Jeter won't have an impact for the Blue Devils.
And, in fact, it could be multiple years of impact.
He's used to biding his time on terrific teams. He was a solid player, arguably a late bloomer, at powerhouse Bishop Gorman alongside UNLV signee Stephen Zimmerman.
Regarded for being a good floor-runner and offering some nice inside moves, Jeter clearly needs to bulk up. The next level should challenge him in a variety of ways.
But the postseason pitch from Coach K could easily be that Jeter is the kind of guy Duke can build around down the road.
Duke will be talented and experienced in the post. Despite losing Okafor, it'll have Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee, along with Rice transfer Sean Obi. That's not to say Jeter can't stand out among that group. But he won't have to carry the load.
But perhaps he could as a sophomore or even beyond.
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