1 Bold Prediction for Every NBA Team In March
March is the last full month of the NBA season, and recent history suggests it'll be a wild one.
Just last year, the Houston Rockets, who finished 11th in the West and missed the Play-In by five full games in the standings, posted the best March record in the league. And in March of 2022-23, Mikal Bridges, currently a fifth option for the New York Knicks, scored 461 points, trailing only soon-to-be MVP Joel Embiid and Devin Booker.
In other words, if you think you know what's coming this month, you're sorely mistaken.
Let's stick with that spirit and offer up one outlandish March prediction for every NBA team.
Atlanta Hawks: Onyeka Okongwu Will Let It Fly
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Onyeka Okongwu attempted 27 threes in November, his highest in any month of his career. Now a full-time starter for an Atlanta Hawks team that has lost considerable spacing since deadline trades sent away Bogdan Bogdanović and De’Andre Hunter, the fifth-year center is going to blow that number away.
Beyond Atlanta needing someone to spread the floor, Okongwu should be experimenting to an extreme degree. If he’s going to become a true impact starter and long-term building block for the Hawks, he has to do more on offense than dive to the rim and clean up messes on the offensive glass. Clint Capela, removed from the first unit in favor of Okongwu and headed into free agency this summer, could do those things.
Boston Celtics: No One Will Have a Better March Record
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The Boston Celtics had the league’s best record in the month of November but haven’t matched that feat since. March will see the defending champs repeat that achievement.
Though the Celtics have less reason to push the pedal to the floor than most teams, they may not have to. Only the Wizards, Wolves and Raptors have easier schedules down the stretch of the season.
Add to that Boston’s incentive to maximize the minutes its starting lineup sees between now and the beginning of the playoffs, and there’s plenty of reason to believe a dominant March is on the way. Last year, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis shared the floor for 1,293 possessions and amassed a plus-12.0 net rating. That group has only been on the court together for about half that much time so far in 2024-25, and its minus-1.4 net rating suggests some kinks still need to be worked out.
Brooklyn Nets: Nic Claxton Will Lead the League in Blocks
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Nic Claxton’s game-winner against the Philadelphia 76ers produced the Brooklyn Nets’ seventh win in nine chances between Jan. 29 and Feb. 22, extending a season-long trend of refusing to pack it in.
While Claxton’s putback was valuable in producing a win, it might be even more interesting as a predictor of what’s ahead for him personally.
Hampered by one injury or another for much of the year and generally looking unlike his typically springy self, Claxton hasn’t had the best 2024-25. But he’s quietly rounding into form of late and, combined with Brooklyn’s tendency to catch opponents unaware, is positioned to capitalize against a stretch-run slate of opponents who let their guard down.
Claxton is only averaging 1.5 blocks per game, well below the swat rates he posted in 2022-23 and 2023-24, but that’s changing rapidly. He rejected a total of 31 shots in the 10-game run that culminated with the win over the Sixers and will extend that pace into March.
Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball Will Be Shut Down
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The Charlotte Hornets are racking up blowout losses lately, and a recent stretch saw them drop three games by an NBA-record total of 131 points. As the team officially enters the circle-the-drain portion of the campaign, Charlotte will turn its attention to longer-term priorities. The first of those should be ensuring LaMelo Ball enters the offseason healthy.
Ankle injuries limited Ball to 36 games in 2022-23 and just 22 last season, and he’s already lost significant time this year with issues in both ankles. It’d be disastrous if another one cropped up now, during a stretch of the season that hardly matters.
Beyond the preservation angle, the Hornets might want to get Ball out of action before too many rough nights accumulate. Bereft of supporting talent, he’s already posting the lowest field-goal and three-point percentages of his career. Better to shelve him soon, allow him to enter the summer in one piece and avoid the malaise that could develop in such a hopeless stretch run.
Chicago Bulls: Matas Buzelis Will Log Two 30-Point Games
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Rookie Matas Buzelis had four double-figure scoring games before Christmas but amassed 10 more during a 10-game stretch from Jan. 29 to Feb. 22. That’s a trend that’ll continue as he continues to gain confidence in a larger role on offense.
Zach LaVine’s departure at the deadline freed up shots and touch time for everyone else on Chicago’s roster, and Buzelis is already showing he can do more when handed a larger share of offensive responsibilities. Most importantly, the Bulls should be more invested in pushing him than anyone else on the roster. If there’s a cornerstone in Chicago, he's the guy.
Though he hasn’t yet reached the 30-point mark, Buzelis will do so more than once this month.
Cleveland Cavaliers: This Year's Single-Game Scoring Mark Will Fall
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The Memphis Grizzlies piled up 155 points against the Toronto Raptors on Dec. 26, setting a high mark for 2024-25 that has stood for over two months.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to take that record down, and they’ll do it without the benefit of overtime, just like the Grizz did.
Cleveland has already crested 140 points four times this year, peaking with 149 against the Denver Nuggets just one day after Memphis put up 155. Already far and away this season’s most efficient offense, the Cavs have only had De’Andre Hunter since the deadline and just got Dean Wade, a career 36.5 percent three-point shooter, back from injury. Between those relatively minor additions and the high-volume marksmanship of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, Cleveland is well equipped to explode against any defense.
Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie Will Average 20 Points Per Game
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Kyrie Irving is a brilliant individual scorer, but even he can’t be expected to carry the Dallas Mavericks’ depleted offense by himself.
Luka Dončić’s deadline departure robbed Dallas of its primary offensive engine, and Anthony Davis joined virtually every other Mavs big man on the injury list shortly after he arrived. That’ll leave a massive secondary scoring void in need of filling, and Christie looks primed to step up.
The 22-year-old averaged 14.7 points on a 61.1 true shooting percentage across his first nine games with the Mavericks, only three of which he started. Considering his usage rate in those contests was only 17.9 percent, he has ample room to expand his imprint on the offense.
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic Will Post a 20-20-20 Line
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Russell Wesbrook and Wilt Chamberlain are the only players to ever pile up at least 20 points, 20 assists and 20 rebounds in a single game, but Nikola Jokić will soon join them.
The points are barely an issue; Jokić can comfortably get 30 against any defense if he’s so inclined. From there, it’ll be a matter of snagging 20 boards, which Jokić has already done four times this season. In each instance, he needed fewer than 40 minutes to grab them.
The assists will be the tricky part because Jokić won’t force the passes that don’t make sense in the moment. That means his chances of reaching 20 dimes will depend on how defenses play him. Most prefer to make him a scorer, which goes against his facilitating instincts, but it’s interesting to note that five of Jokić’s eight 15-assist games this year have come since Jan. 1. If an opponent sends two bodies at Jokić and dares Denver’s supporting cast to make shots, 20 assists is a legit possibility. Just recently, he handed out 19 helpers against the Pacers.
Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham Will Have 5 Triple-Doubles
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The Detroit Pistons look capable of finishing among the East’s top four teams, a result that will put them in position to win their first playoff game since 2008. If an achievement like that is in play after seeming impossible for so many years, so is almost anything else.
Cade Cunningham arrived as an All-Star this season and has already logged eight triple-doubles so far. But why should his ascent level off now, when Detroit is on such a heater?
Dennis Schröder’s arrival will redirect some of the playmaking away from a massively overburdened Cunningham, but that feels more like a benefit than something that’ll get in the way of the gaudy assist totals necessary to reach five more triple-doubles. A brief break from facilitation here or there should leave Cunningham with more gas in the tank when he’s on the ball.
Golden State Warriors: The Warriors Will Finish March Ranked Fifth in the West
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Jimmy Butler’s arrival has Draymond Green thinking big, but we don’t need to get as extreme as proclaiming the Golden State Warriors a title favorite. It’s bold enough to say they’ll climb over four teams ahead of them to secure a top-five spot in the West before the month is out.
Predicting they’ll land in the top six seemed too conservative.
Butler’s presence has had a knock-on effect on the players around him. It’s not just that he’s such a stable and patient individual scoring threat who brings badly needed free-throws and keen passing. It’s that all of the Warriors with whom he plays seem rejuvenated by his confidence and control.
Everyone’s cutting harder—especially second-year guard Brandin Podziemski—and it’s as if the entire team has somehow settled into a style that was impossible before Butler showed up.
Jonathan Kuminga’s reintroduction to the lineup following a long injury layoff could throw a wrench in the works, but the Golden State machine is humming since Butler’s arrival.
Houston Rockets: Five Clutch Losses Are Coming
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Part of the reason it’s easy to project what’ll likely be a league-leading five-clutch losses in March is because we know the Houston Rockets will have more cracks at those defeats than most teams. Nobody has played in more close-and-late contests than they have this season.
Houston is actually 21-16 in the clutch, which makes this prediction especially bold.
The Rockets have amassed that mark with smoke and mirrors (and some very opportunistic defense). The Washington Wizards are the only team in the league with a lower effective field-goal percentage in the clutch, an indictment of Houston’s lack of a reliable playmaker and a pretty strong condemnation of its three-point shooting. The forced turnovers and second-chance opportunities that have so far sustained the Rockets in close games won't last forever, and if those aspects don’t hold up, the team’s woeful late-game offense will come back to bite it.
Indiana Pacers: A Mathurin 40-Spot Is Coming
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Don’t fall into the trap of thinking Bennedict Mathurin’s recent demotion to the bench will curb his scoring. The opposite is true.
Mathurin averages 15.2 points per game as a reserve, but amasses that figure in just 25.7 minutes per game. Though he averages 16.4 points as a starter, he also gets to that number in six extra minutes of playing time.
On a per-minute and per-play basis, the Pacers gunslinging guard is much more dangerous when he enters that game midway through the first quarter and finds opposing backups to attack.
Couple the numbers with Indiana’s broader step forward offensively and what might be a bit of a chip on Mathurin’s shoulder, and the potential for big scoring nights is actually higher now that he’s coming off the bench. He’ll deliver the first 40-point game of his career in March.
LA Clippers: LA Will Slip to 10th in the West
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With what was once a calling-card defense slipping and an offense that might not be up to snuff if James Harden starts to wear down, the LA Clippers find themselves in a dangerous position.
Though currently right in the mix with the Timberwolves, Warriors and Mavericks in the fight for sixth in the West, LA’s momentum is trending the wrong way at the wrong time.
Though all three defeats came on the road, which offers some cover, the Clips dropped the ball on both ends from Feb. 20 to Feb. 24. The first two losses—to Milwaukee and Indiana—saw points-surrendered totals of 116 and 129, respectively. Then, in the third slip-up, the Clippers scored just 97 points at Detroit.
After posting the best defensive rating in the league during the month of January, LA defended closer to a bottom-10 rate in February.
Though still a rousing success relative to preseason expectations, the Clippers are primed for major regression in March.
Los Angeles Lakers: Luka Dončić Won’t Consistently Look Like Himself
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A laser-focused and productive effort against the Denver Nuggets on Feb. 22 is the reason this prediction qualifies as bold. Luka Dončić was otherworldly in that blowout win for the Los Angeles Lakers—aggressive, efficient and very much resembling the guy who’d made five straight All-NBA first teams coming into the year.
This is a bet that games like that will be the exception to the rule, at least for the month of March.
Many of Dončić’s other Lakers appearances have been disappointments. He hasn’t looked to be in great condition, he’s coming off a calf injury and he’s adjusting to a new team for the first time in his career. It’s fine (and probably smart) to believe he’ll eventually get right back on the surefire Hall-of-Fame track he was on prior to this year, but it’s not going to happen immediately.
Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant Will Go on a Tear
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Ja Morant is averaging his fewest points per game since 2020-21, but we’re viewing that as the calm before the storm.
Memphis has been careful with its star point guard this year, holding Morant under 30.0 minutes per game for the first time in his career. Coming off last year’s shoulder injury—one that has occasionally limited him this season—Morant hasn’t exactly gotten a chance to establish a rhythm.
In addition to that, Morant’s role has undergone a subtle tilt toward facilitation. He’s averaging more assists per 36 minutes than ever and has even been more active defensively en route to the highest steal rate of his career.
As the Grizzlies rev up for the playoffs, Morant is going to put together an extended run of elite play that puts to rest any concerns about his health and effectiveness. Morant needs to be at superstar levels for Memphis to profile as a fringe contender, and he’ll show he can still get there this month.
Miami Heat: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Will Get Back on Track
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Nikola Jović’s fractured hand creates an opening in the frontcourt that Jaime Jaquez Jr. should be in line to fill. This is a bet he’ll seize the opportunity.
Jaquez finished fourth in Rookie of the Year and ninth in Sixth Man voting last season, but he’s seen his role and production shrink dramatically as a sophomore. No longer a starter and struggling mightily to score from the perimeter, the rugged forward has actually made gains elsewhere: His assist, rebound and steal rates are all well ahead of where they were a year ago.
For Jaquez, everything comes down to his scoring efficiency. In good news on that front, he hit 41.4 percent of his threes in January and has canned at least 75.0 percent of his foul shots in every month since November.
Milwaukee Bucks: Damian Lillard Will Have Three 40-Point Games
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Kyle Kuzma isn’t going to score like he did with the Washington Wizards, and the Milwaukee Bucks probably shouldn’t want him to. He came over at the deadline with a game best suited to attacking from the wings as a slasher while providing a little more mobility on D than veteran Khris Middleton could. What’s more, Kuzma isn’t capable of handling secondary-facilitation duties like the man he replaced.
That all adds up to a larger share of offensive responsibility for Damian Lillard, and he’s going to do just fine with it.
Dame has posted usage rates under 30.0 percent in his two seasons with the Bucks, but he was regularly north of that number in Portland. He’s going to scale up his shot attempts over the next month, and the smart money should be on that approach leading to a handful of major scoring explosions.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Naz Reid Will Play His Way Out of Minnesota
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Naz Reid is the reigning Sixth Man of the Year and spent most of February removing any doubt that he belongs in the starting lineup. If he keeps this up, the Minnesota Timberwolves will be both elated and disappointed.
Reid’s scoring surge since replacing the injured Julius Randle in Minnesota’s first unit has been a sight to behold. He scored at least 22 points in eight of the 10 games he played as a starter from Feb. 3 to Feb. 24. Not coincidentally, the Wolves posted positive plus-minus figures in a matching eight of those 10 Reid starts.
Though nothing close to a shutdown weapon defensively, Reid is contributing dangerous spacing, strong rebounding totals and, most importantly, a clearly positive effect on his team’s overall performance.
Unfortunately for the Wolves, Reid is ticketed for unrestricted free agency this summer. When he keeps this production up in March, he’s going to price himself out of Minnesota’s comfort zone.
New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Will Join the 30/60 Club
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ESPN’s Michael C. Wright reported Zion Williamson is currently at 264 pounds, his lightest weight since entering the NBA. Because conditioning and commitment have always been much bigger questions than skill or impact for Williamson, it stands to reason that he’s in line for a stellar stretch.
It’s an oversimplified way to judge offensive production, but an average of at least 30.0 points per game with a true shooting percentage north of 60.0 percent rates as an elite volume-efficiency combo only the league’s greatest scorers sniff. Only 13 players have ever pulled it off over a full season.
Williamson has never done so in a single calendar month, but he came close in December of 2022, scoring 29.8 points with a 66.3 true shooting percentage across a dozen games.
He’s going to get the job done in March.
New York Knicks: Knicks Will Finish Closer to No. 2 than No. 4 in the East
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If you’re panicking about the New York Knicks in the wake of those double-digit losses to the Cavs and Celtics, please relax. All those defeats proved was that the Knicks aren’t on the same level as the East’s true elites, and we already knew that.
The Knicks are still more dangerous than the other 12 teams in the conference.
Yes, the Pacers are on a heater. So are the Pistons. Milwaukee has Giannis Antetokounmpo, which makes it a threat. But the Knicks have spent the season proving they’re a clear notch above those teams. Their plus-6.0 net rating is well clear of the Bucks’ plus-1.1 and the Pacers’ plus-1.4. Beyond that, New York’s record should actually be even better according to its point differential. Both Indy and Milwaukee have “lucked” into two more wins than their differentials suggest they should have.
So while the East standings and the race for No. 3 might be getting a little tighter than Knicks fans would prefer, Jalen Brunson and Co. are more likely to put pressure on the top two than they are to fall below third.
Oklahoma City Thunder: OKC Will Force 30 Turnovers in a Game
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The predatory Oklahoma City Thunder are only going to get healthier as they head into March, and that’s bad news for the wounded prey in front of them.
OKC has forced at least 26 turnovers three times this year and leads the league in giveaways generated per game. Just imagine what’ll be possible as the Thunder start ramping up ahead of the playoffs while many of their opponents shift their mindsets toward offseason plans.
Alex Caruso’s return to health will be a factor. When he’s been on the floor this season, Thunder opponents turn the ball over 4.4 percent more often, an elite on-off increase. Chet Holmgren causes plenty of second thoughts and hesitant passes when he’s out there as well. With those two rounding into form, an OKC defense that was already known for disruption will only cause more problems.
Orlando Magic: Orlando Will Tie the Season Low in Made Threes
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The current season-low total in made threes by any team is three, and the Orlando Magic have what it takes to match that mark in March.
On pace to be the least accurate three-point shooting team in over a decade, the Magic have already piled up some embarrassingly low totals from beyond the arc. They’ve made just five triples in five different games this year, and they’ve hit exactly six three times.
When you pair a historically low 30.5 percent knockdown rate from deep with just under 22.0 attempts per game, which ranks among the league’s bottom 10 this year, it’s not so hard to imagine the Magic matching this year’s low-water mark for long-range futility.
The good news is Orlando knows exactly what it needs to add to the roster going forward. The bad news is it’s known that for the last two offseasons and trade deadlines, and hasn’t done nearly enough to fix the issue.
Philadelphia 76ers: Only the Wizards Will Be Worse In March
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The Philadelphia 76ers are going to pack it in this month, and the mini late-season tank won’t even be about maximizing the value of their 2025 draft pick—one they happen to owe to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside the top six.
No, this shutdown will be about preserving whatever shot the current (and very recently assembled) core has of contending next year.
Joel Embiid twice told reporters he was limited by the left knee that cost him time last year, and now the Sixers are officially shutting him down while they determine the best course of treatment.
Philly could push to make the Play-In, but what would be the point? Now, the only question is how many teams will tank harder than them. The bet here is: Not many.
Phoenix Suns: The Suns Will Lose Ground in the West
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Let’s be specific with this one and say that at some point in March, the Phoenix Suns will find themselves tied in the West standings with either the Portland Trail Blazers or the San Antonio Spurs.
San Antonio lost Victor Wembanyama for the season, which makes them the less likely candidate. Portland, on the other hand, seems primed to make up the deficit.
One big reason: The Blazers have simply been better than the Suns for nearly two months.
Both squads played 25 games from Jan. 1 to Feb. 23, and though their records were similar, Portland’s plus-2.4 net rating in that span easily topped Phoenix’s minus-1.7. Toss in the bad vibes surrounding the Suns following the trade deadline, compared to the Blazers’ youth-fueled surge, and it’s not hard to envision Phoenix dropping another spot in the standings.
Portland Trail Blazers: Donovan Clingan Will Set a Season High in Offensive Rebounds
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Domantas Sabonis snared 13 of his team’s misses in 43 minutes against the New Orleans Pelicans on Feb. 13, and that’s the current season-high in offensive boards for 2024-25.
Donovan Clingan is going to beat that record.
The Portland Trail Blazers rookie center has already grabbed 10 offensive boards in a game this season, needing only 31 minutes to do it. He snatched nine in 25 minutes back in November. Clearly, all he needs is an extended stay on the floor, and Clingan is going to threaten double-digit offensive rebounds regularly.
With the Blazers quietly climbing the West standings and looking uninterested in lottery-odds-improving sabotage, one might assume Clingan’s role will shrink in favor of veteran alternatives. But Portland’s net rating is 3.5 points per 100 possessions better when Cling Kong is in the game. If anything, he could see more action down the stretch. If he does, Clingan will haul in 14 offensive boards at least once, overtaking Sabonis for the season lead.
Sacramento Kings: Somebody Important Is Getting Benched
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The Sacramento Kings’ starting unit was oddly constructed before swapping out De’Aaron Fox for Zach LaVine, but now it’s even less sensible. Malik Monk is a fine initiator against backups, but he’s not a true point guard, Keegan Murray is the only passable defender in the bunch and Sacramento has yet to figure out how to make the LaVine-DeMar DeRozan duo function.
Maybe the Kings could have watched the last several years of sub-mediocre Bulls film and realized that’s a tough task.
Interim head coach Doug Christie met with the starters following a desultory loss to the Warriors on Feb. 21, and to the Kings’ credit, they hammered the Hornets by 42 points in their next game.
But the bigger picture is what matters here, and it’s clear the Kings’ first unit skews too heavily toward “get my own” offensive threats who don’t defend. Somebody’s getting sent to the bench, and it could easily be LaVine or DeRozan. The fallout from that move could lead to Christie or GM Monte McNair not returning next season.
San Antonio Spurs: Stephon Castle Will Lead the Team in Usage
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Yes, we know former All-Star De’Aaron Fox is on the roster. That shouldn’t matter to the San Antonio Spurs’ plans for the balance of this season because Fox is a known commodity while rookie Stephon Castle is still in the fact-finding portion of his career.
That’s why Castle should be thrust into a major on-ball role in March. The Spurs know they’ve got a highly competitive, athletically elite guard on their hands, but they aren’t yet sure what that means for his long-term role. Castle could be a high-end support piece who excels as a defender and off-ball slasher—or even one who becomes more threatening if his jumper develops. But it’s also possible he’ll blossom as an offensive initiator.
Putting the ball in Castle’s hands more often and allowing him to sink or swim in a high-usage role could give San Antonio a ton of useful information. With Victor Wembanayama out and a Play-In berth all but meaningless, the Spurs’ focus will shift to figuring out what Castle should do once their franchise player is back in the fold.
Toronto Raptors: They’ll Finish March in Play-In Position
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The hill they’ll need to climb is steep, as the Toronto Raptors currently sit 13th in the East and already have five more losses than the 10th-seeded Chicago Bulls. But with (by far) the league’s easiest remaining schedule and less incentive to pack it in than several of the other teams ahead of them, the Raps are primed for a winning month and a surge up the standings.
Toronto’s toughest remaining game will come against Golden State, but that’ll be the only dangerous opponent in the month. The Raptors will get three cracks at the Wizards, plus two each at the Sixers, Hornets and Jazz. That’s a cakewalk—one made even easier by the fact that Immanuel Quickley, Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and (hopefully) Brandon Ingram will finally share the floor for extended stretches.
Utah Jazz: Kyle Filipowski Will Rank Second on the Team in Made Threes
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Not exactly regarded as a knockdown weapon upon his arrival from Duke, Kyle Filipowski has made intriguing progress as a three-point shooter. Nobody’s been paying attention because the Utah Jazz have successfully made themselves irrelevant this season after accidentally winning too much in 2022-23 and 2023-24, but the 6’11” big man quietly made over half of his threes in February, culminating with a 4-of-4 performance against the Blazers on Feb. 24.
Given the Jazz’s bottom-three spot in the current lottery standings, they have every incentive to play Filipowski more and encourage him to fire away with abandon.
If he stays hot, Utah can go into next year excited about the floor-stretching big it unearthed. If he cools off, those misses will further the team’s tanking ends.
That’s a win-win.
Washington Wizards: It’ll Be a 5-Win Month
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As the rest of the league’s cellar-dwellers pivot more aggressively into full tank mode this March, the Washington Wizards will stick to business as usual. That Washington has spent the entire season playing as poorly as possible is actually an advantage; other teams will shut down starters and shelve banged-up contributors, closing the gap between them and the league-worst Wiz.
Another factor in a predicted five-win month: Washington nearly got there in February, racking up a season-high four victories. The Wizards haven’t won more than five games in a calendar month since January of 2023, but they did manage to secure exactly five victories once last season…in March.
The 10-win Wizards have plenty of clearance between themselves and the rest of the NBA’s pursuers of lottery position, so they can afford to continue playing as well as they can (which isn’t all that well) while a few other squads sink to their level, creating the chance for some culture-building wins.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
