Potential NBA Fallout from Victor Wembanyama's Season-Ending Injury

Seemingly out of nowhere, and fresh off an All-Star appearance at which he looked like one of the only players trying to save the event's face, we learned Thursday that Victor Wembanyama will miss the remainder of the season with deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder.

"Victor Wembanyama has a form of a blood clot in the right shoulder," ESPN's Shams Charania wrote. "He is out for the season. The Spurs believe this is an isolated condition."

The good news, to the extent there is any, comes in that last sentence. Hopefully, for the sake of Wembanyama, Spurs fans, the NBA and, really, the game of basketball itself, Wemby will make a full recovery and resume his astronomical career trajectory.

In the meantime, his absence, even if it's only for the next few months, could have significant ripple effects on the league.

We'll take a look at some of the bigger ones below.

The West's Play-In Picture Clarifies

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San Antonio had already started to slide a bit in the gauntlet that is the Western Conference standings, but Basketball Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report ("based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season") still gave them a better-than-10-percent chance to make the play-in.

That number, clearly, does not account for today's news. When Wembanyama is on the floor, the Spurs have a point differential around that of a 47-win team. When he's off, they play more like a 19-win team.

Even with De'Aaron Fox now on the team, without Wembanyama's volume scoring, three-point range and, most importantly, defense and rim protection, the Spurs are going to lose. A lot. And that makes it a lot easier to buy the conference's current top 10 as the ones we'll see when the play-in begins.

San Antonio is currently in 12th place and 3.5 games behind the recently-buoyed-by-the-Jimmy Butler-trade Golden State Warriors. The Phoenix Suns are in between those two squads, but they're still a game-and-a-half behind Golden State and dealing with all kinds of their own on-court issues.

Given their own injury problems, it feels like the Dallas Mavericks are on pretty shaky ground, too. The Sacramento Kings have a lot of adjusting to do in the wake of the Fox and Zach LaVine deals. But both feel like they have enough of a buffer to hold off Phoenix and the now Wembanyama-less Spurs.

Of course, predictions, especially for the West, can be pure folly, but this injury at least provides a hint of clarity into which teams have real shots at the postseason.

The Spurs' Post-All-Star Approach Should Be Clear

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Just under 20 years ago, San Antonio had a once-in-a-generation, two-way talent at center whose season was cut short by an injury.

David Robinson played just six games in 1996-97, which helped the Spurs go 20-62 and secure the No. 1 pick in the 1997 draft.

They, of course, took Tim Duncan, who went on to win five titles for the organization.

Now, the path to Cooper Flagg certainly isn't as clear for San Antonio now as the one to Duncan was all those years ago. The Spurs obviously aren't catching the tanking Washington Wizards, New Orleans Pelicans, Utah Jazz and Charlotte Hornets, but their odds for the No. 1 pick can still improve dramatically before the lottery.

Based on their current spot in the standings, San Antonio has a 3.0 percent shot at the top spot and a 13.9 percent chance to enter the top four. But the Spurs only have three more wins than the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets, both of whom would have better than 8 percent shots at the top pick if the season ended today.

That's a significant difference. One probably worth chasing.

Can you imagine a core of Wembanyama, Flagg and De'Aaron Fox? That's a team that, health permitting, would almost certainly make the playoffs as soon as next season. It'd likely enter title contention within two or three years.

The amount of length, defensive versatility and overall potential between Wemby and Flagg would be absurd, but even if the Spurs wind up with some other pick inside the top 10, they'll likely be in better long-term shape than they would've been in if they snuck into the playoffs.

Yes, experiencing those high-leverage, bright-stage games can have a profound impact on a young player. But another top-flight prospect is better for the roster. And there's loads of time for the 21-year-old French phenom to pick up playoff experience.

Jaren Jackson Jr.'s Career May Have Just Changed Dramatically...

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Yes, that Jaren Jackson Jr.

The Memphis Grizzlies big man who won Defensive Player of the Year in 2022-23 almost certainly has a better chance to secure a supermax contract extension in the wake of Wemby's injury.

Because of that award he took home in 2023, if Jackson either wins another DPOY or makes an All-NBA team this season, he'll be eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Player Extension (also known as the supermax).

That contract can be up to five years long and guarantee the recipient...wait for it... $345 million in salary.

As bonkers as that number sounds, it's a possibility that could at least be on the table. Betting odds shifted shortly after Charania broke the news on Wembanyama to favor JJJ for Defensive Player of the Year.

His average for blocks per game (1.6) is down significantly from where it was in 2022-23 (3.0), but Memphis' defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) ranks in the 93rd percentile when JJJ is on the floor and gets a whopping 8.3 points worse when he's off.

And that might not even be Jackson's most obvious route to supermax eligibility.

Right now, catch-all metrics from around the internet suggest Jackson has been a top 15-20 player this season. Some of the players ahead of him on that list—including Wembanyama and Anthony Davis—won't play enough games to be eligible for an All-NBA nod.

With 15 of those handed out every year, and the Grizzlies in the hunt for a top-two seed in the West, one could be Jackson's.

...Which in Turn Could Change 2026 Free Agency

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Under the current collective bargaining agreement, with all its penalties for being over various tax lines, signing anyone to a contract that pays him an average of almost $70 million a year is a little nerve-racking.

Sure, the salary cap is going to balloon under the new media rights deal, but that justification aged terribly after 2016, when players like Allen Crabbe, Evan Turner, Luol Deng, Timofey Mozgov and Chandler Parsons (among others) struggled to live up to hefty deals made possible by a cap spike.

Memphis, which already has over $80 million committed to Ja Morant and Desmond Bane for 2026-27, might at least have to think about letting Jackson go (or trading him before he can walk for nothing).

And this will obviously change a lot after the summer of 2025, but most of the league is currently projected to have cap space in 2026. The Los Angeles Lakers, who still need a big man to pair with Luka Dončić after the Mark Williams deal fell through, are on track to have nearly $80 million in room.

Wemby's Spurs might even have enough to sign Jackson that summer.

There are plenty of possibilities, and they suddenly feel just a tad more likely after learning we won't see Wembanyama play the rest of this season.

Wemby Might Lose a Little Momentum

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Despite he and Chris Paul's failed attempt at rigging the Skills Challenge (chucking basketballs off the rack instead of shooting them got the Spurs disqualified), Wembanyama was one of the only NBA stars who probably dodged all the reputational hits from a widely panned All-Star Weekend.

At the very least, it was clear that he wanted to win on Sunday. His effort level proved it.

Wemby was also, without question, among the stars of Netflix's Court of Gold, released just days after the All-Star "game."

And those two events weren't far off the heels of a big trade that landed a former All-Star point guard in San Antonio to set him up for easier baskets.

Everything seemed to be headed in the right direction for the big man. For all the recent talk of who will be the next face of the league, Wemby was seemingly making the answer pretty obvious.

If he'd led a first-round upset in the playoffs, he may have ended that discussion altogether.

But now, he'll be off the national stage for at least the rest of this campaign. And even that half-step back could open the door for some other young stars.