One and Done: Chevy Rock and Roll 400

This weekend’s Chevy Rock and Roll 400 at Richmond marks the final race before the Chase for the Sprint Cup. With eleven drivers (counting David Reutimann’s outside chance) fighting for eight spots, things will get tight on Saturday. One mistake could cost a driver the playoffs.

With that in mind, the only truly viable fantasy picks for this weekend are the current Chase drivers, and those fighting to clinch spots. Those already in are going to go for one more win to up their bonus point totals going into the playoffs, and those looking to get in will be going for the win just to get in.

Realize, then, that picking from those fifteen drivers is going to be a bit of a crapshoot. Heartbreak happens. But judging by past Richmond performance, these five drivers look the strongest coming into this weekend’s race:

Kyle Busch: Shrub’s last chance at making the Chase this year (and atoning for last year’s collapse) comes at one of his best tracks. Seven out of nine times, he’s finished fifth or better. He’s never failed to complete a lap. He captured his first checkered flag here this year. If anybody could pull it off…

Mark Martin: Since a crash cut his day short in the spring of 2000, Martin hasn’t failed to complete a single lap at Richmond. Lead lap finishes, especially at a short track, generally lead to plenty of points. In those 18 races, Martin hasn’t won, or led many laps, but he’s generally been up front, with 10 finishes of seventh or better.

Ryan Newman: Newman led laps in each of his first six Richmond races, winning the fourth. That win was six years ago, sure, but when he’s on top of his game at the track, he’s solid. Consistency has always been Newman’s problem (remember the 2003 season?), but he did lead 45 laps en route to a fourth place finish earlier this year.

Denny Hamlin: Now that Denny’s clinched a Chase spot, he can focus on winning his second race of the year at Richmond. It took him until August to win his first of the year, but he’s been one of the most consistent drivers on the track all year. It would be his first Richmond win, but remember that he led 381 laps in the spring of 2008 before his tire blew.

Tony Stewart: In the past eleven races, Smoke only has two finishes outside of the top 10: a 19th in the fall of 2004, and an 18th in the fall of 2006. Combine that with the year he’s been having, and it seems a given that he’ll run well this weekend.

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