Projecting the 7 MLB Teams Battling For Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at Trade Deadline
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a member of the Toronto Blue Jays for now, but rarely has the phrase "for now" done such heavy lifting.
The Monday deadline that the four-time All-Star had set for a contract extension came and went without a deal. And to hear it from Guerrero, the Blue Jays never came close to his asking price.
With no extension in place, the 25-year-old is now just months away from reaching free agency upon the conclusion of the 2025 season. And it's possible he may leave Toronto before then.
According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, the Blue Jays are inclined to start the season with Guerrero at first base. However, the report also mentions that the team could "reassess the possibility of a trade as the July deadline approaches."
This calls for immediate discussion, both about how likely it is that Guerrero will go anywhere this summer and where he could land if he does move.
What Are the Chances the Blue Jays Trade Guerrero?
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There's a problem with assuming the Blue Jays will trade Guerrero this summer, and it has to do with how they might actually be good.
Though Toronto finished last in the American League East in 2025, the team had a productive offseason. Getting Anthony Santander, who slugged 44 home runs in 2024, was a big score. Fellow newcomers Max Scherzer, Andrés Giménez and Jeff Hoffman are also impact players.
Otherwise, the Blue Jays obviously still have Guerrero, who's coming off a .940 OPS and 30 homers. And also Bo Bichette, who's a .300 hitter with power when he's right.
There is also Toronto's rotation to consider. Between Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis, it has the potential to be elite.
And yet, even the 38.0 percent chance of playing in October that FanGraphs gives the Blue Jays puts them in the bottom rung of likely AL contenders. And the club's downside is very real, especially with so many pitchers over the age of 30.
If Toronto is out of the race come July, renting out Guerrero will be the sensible thing to do. And since he'll have roughly $9.5 million remaining on his $28.5 million salary, some teams may find trading for him more palatable than they do right now.
As for which clubs could get into the market for Guerrero, seven stand out. For simplicity's sake, those clubs have been arranged in ascending order of their playoff odds.
But before we get to them, let's narrow down the field.
It's Probably Safe to Rule Out These Contenders
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Contenders who are solid at first base and DH include the Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies.
As for the "maybe" pile there's...
Arizona Diamondbacks
Josh Naylor is a sturdy option at first base, but it's hard not to notice Joc Pederson's absence from the DH spot. Alas, though, Arizona is already pushing its payroll into uncomfortable territory.
Baltimore Orioles
Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn isn't the best 1B/DH tandem, but bear in mind the Orioles have likewise already skyrocketed their payroll.
Boston Red Sox
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Red Sox may be the leading contender to land Guerrero once he reaches free agency:
In the meantime, though, it's an awkward fit. With Alex Bregman aboard and top prospect Kristian Campbell knocking on the door, it may not be long before the Red Sox need their first base and DH spots for Rafael Devers and Triston Casas.
Cleveland Guardians
This is certainly an offense that could use Guerrero's help, be it at first base or at DH. But when it comes to the Guardians, it's always hard to count on them being willing to jack up payroll.
New York Yankees
Giancarlo Stanton has already reminded everyone about his proneness to injuries, so it's hardly out of the question that the Yankees will have an opening at DH this summer. But at least on paper, he's there and Paul Goldschmidt is at first base.
San Diego Padres
As a rule, the Padres must be mentioned whenever a star player is potentially available in a trade. Yet they'll be a better fit for Guerrero in free agency, as they have some money coming off their books next winter.
Don't Rule Out These Would-Be Contenders
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This leaves non-contenders such as the Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins, who surely won't be in on Guerrero if he becomes available.
There are also in-betweeners like the Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays that just don't come off as candidates for a seismic midsummer move.
But then there are the other in-betweeners who can't be ruled out...
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds project to be deficient at both first base and DH, so Guerrero will make a lot of sense for them if they climb their way into the NL Central race. Money is the bigger question, as the Reds' payroll is already inflated.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels reportedly weighed pursuing Pete Alonso before he re-signed with the New York Mets, so first base is on their mind to some extent. But while they intend to contend this year, they only have a 9.2 percent chance of making it happen.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Bucs will probably be bad, but there is the possibility their rotation alone will elevate them into contention. They'll need to shop for bats if that happens, and even Bob Nutting might be willing to add to a relatively small payroll.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals hit the fewest home runs of any NL team last year, yet they have enough young talent to at least be a long-shot possibility for the 2025 playoffs. If a run does come together, merely affording Guerrero won't be the problem.
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San Francisco Giants
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Current First Baseman: LaMonte Wade Jr.
Projected 1B WAR: 1.6
Playoff Chances: 25.6 percent
The Giants spent just shy of $230 million during the winter, which isn't even counting the $151 million extension they did with Matt Chapman last fall.
Yet they're still only the fourth-best team in the NL West.
This is what FanGraphs projects, but it also feels true just in an intuitive sense. Perhaps their biggest issue is that, even with Chapman at third and Willy Adames at short, the offense still feels a star short of being an October-caliber unit.
This is where Guerrero would come in, and no roster jiu-jitsu would be needed to fit him into the lineup. In a perfect world, Wade would already be platooning with Wilmer Flores at DH and Heliot Ramos in left field.
The hard part would be keeping Guerrero past 2025. But in contrast to recent pursuits of star free agents, the Giants have a decent history of extending relative newcomers. Before there was Chapman, there was Hunter Pence and Flores.
Kansas City Royals
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Current First Baseman: Vinnie Pasquantino
Projected 1B WAR: 2.2
Playoff Chances: 41.8 percent
In Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals have one of MLB's best offensive players. In fact, a hypothetical team with nine Witts would have had a .793 winning percentage in 2024.
Apart from Witt, though, it isn't pretty in Kansas City's offense.
He was three times as valuable as the Royals' next-best hitter in 2024. And as far as hope for better support in 2025 goes, there's really only newcomer Jonathan India and a hopefully healthier version of Pasquantino.
These two also happen to be Kansas City's DH and first baseman, respectively, but it need not be that way all season. India is a second baseman by trade, and he's otherwise a candidate to solve the Royals' problem in left field.
It therefore doesn't take a special set of eyes to see how Guerrero would fit with the Royals. And while adding him would require a notable raise in payroll, owner John Sherman has been in a spending mood of late.
Detroit Tigers
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Current First Baseman: Colt Keith
Projected 1B WAR: 2.0
Playoff Chances: 46.5 percent
The Tigers failed to land a big bat on the winter market, but it wasn't for lack of trying. They did go hard in pursuit Alex Bregman, after all.
According to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, their offer to the veteran third baseman was for six years and $171.5 million. It was twice as long as the offer he accepted from Boston, with $31.5 million more in guaranteed money.
With Bregman now off the market, the Tigers have few practical options for scoring an impact hitter before Opening Day. But if they wait, Guerrero could make sense for them on the summer market.
Detroit only just moved Keith to first base and the DH spot is in Kerry Carpenter's capable hands. Yet the latter can also play the outfield, and the Tigers could otherwise find reps for Guerrero at third base. He played 100 innings there in 2024.
An imperfect situation, perhaps, but one potentially worth the risk for the Tigers. And even after adding so much payroll during the offseason, the club's spending ceiling is still a long way away.
Minnesota Twins
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Current First Baseman: Ty France
Projected 1B WAR: 1.7
Playoff Chances: 55.6 percent
It isn't surprising the Twins laid low this winter, as the franchise is in a sort of limbo state while the Pohlads are looking to sell.
As for when a sale could go through, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported it could happen before Opening Day. Even if that doesn't pan out, any new owner who comes aboard this year could hope to celebrate with a playoff berth.
Though the Twins suffered a late crash in 2024, FanGraphs has them as the most likely winner of the AL Central in 2025. Part of their appeal is a sneaky-good lineup, though they can certainly do better than France at first base.
He was an All-Star in 2022, but he's hit only .243 with 25 home runs in 298 games since then. And when you look at his Statcast profile, there isn't much there that portends a comeback in 2025.
A first base upgrade therefore could be among the Twins' priorities if they make a push for the AL Central. Guerrero could be their best option, though their new owner would have to greenlight a higher payroll in order to get him.
Seattle Mariners
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Current First Baseman: Luke Raley
Projected 1B WAR: 2.0
Playoff Chances: 56.9 percent
Though not a household name, Raley has hit 41 home runs and been 27 percent better than average over the last two seasons. He isn't the problem here.
Rather, it's the DH spot that's the issue for the Mariners.
It posted a .673 OPS in 2024, making it one of the least productive positions in a generally unproductive offense. The position now seems to belong to Mitch Haniger, who's hit just 29 homers since cranking out 39 in 2021 alone.
As the Mariners otherwise have what might be the best pitching staff in MLB, it's hard to think of a better landing spot for Guerrero on paper. If they add him, they could set their sights not just on the AL West title, but also the World Series.
As for the money, well, that may be more of a hurdle. The Mariners are already projected to surpass their 2024 spending in 2025, and the general vibe coming from the franchise right now smacks of frugality.
Texas Rangers
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Current First Baseman: Jake Burger
Projected 1B WAR: 1.8
Playoff Chances: 58.8 percent
Though Burger is technically slated to be the Rangers' starting first baseman, he may be on his way to a time share.
As reported by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, newcomer Joc Pederson is taking reps at the cold corner this spring. He has limited experience there, yet his profile (i.e., slug-first former outfielder) surely suggests it's time for more.
Here's the thing, though: There's no reason a Burger-Pederson tandem couldn't work at DH if the Rangers find themselves in position to go for broke with a trade for Guerrero.
This would involve a scenario in which they have a real chance to return to the World Series. As it is, that chance is already more real than you might think. Though the Rangers finished six games below .500 in 2024, FanGraphs has them as the AL West favorites and the division's best bet to win the AL pennant.
Trading for Guerrero would almost certainly require the Rangers to go over the $241 million luxury-tax threshold. But if it means a better shot at the World Series, that should be more like a line in the sand than a real barrier.
New York Mets
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Current First Baseman: Pete Alonso
Projected 1B WAR: 3.0
Playoff Chances: 65.1 percent
Guerrero and the Mets? Where have we heard this one before?
Ah, yes. It was in January, when SNY's Andy Martino reported the Mets had checked in on Guerrero amid their standoff with Alonso. That standoff finally ended last week, so the Mets presumably won't be checking in again any time soon.
If you squint, though, you can see a possibility of them picking up the phone again sometime this summer.
Though the Mets are carrying a $331 million payroll into 2025, FanGraphs only has them as the fifth-best bet to win the World Series. That hints at legitimate deficiencies, including an uninspiring Jesse Winker-Starling Marte tandem at DH.
So, what if the Mets went all-in and aimed to insert Guerrero alongside Alonso, Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos?
It's nothing if not a fun idea, though it would also be practical for reasons not even relating to the Mets' 2025 playoff push. It would be a sort of audition for Guerrero's free agency, as the two sides will fit each other if Alonso opts out of his deal.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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