Grading MLB's Recent Flurry of Free Agent Contract Signings Before Spring Training
A growing theme in recent Major League Baseball free agency cycles has been: Better late than never.
At least this year, all the biggest names were off the board before spring training really got going. Nothing compared to last year when the "Boras Four" didn't start signing their short-term-with-opt-out deals until late February.
That said, a lot of pretty big signings didn't go down until this shortest month of the year began, and we need to hand out grades for February's flurry of acquisitions.
Not all of them, of course. That would take forever. But based on a combination of price, fit and general vibes, we'll assess the biggest needle-moving signings of the past few weeks.
Players are presented in decreasing order of total contract dollars.
Alex Bregman Signs with Boston
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Contract Details: 3 years, $120M, but with TBA deferrals that bring the present-day value down to around $90M, per Buster Olney. Can opt out after either 2025 or 2026.
Grade: A-
As with Pete Alonso, it's clear there was some leaguewide trepidation about what Alex Bregman is going to look like three or four years down the road—trepidation that was perhaps accentuated by Nolan Arenado's lingering presence on the trade block, as a third baseman three years older than Bregman whose bat has already declined enough over the past two seasons to the point where the publicly-trying-to-get-younger Cardinals have been unable to trade him away.
Teams were willing to consider a longer deal than this, but not for anywhere near the same salary. Houston was reportedly fine with six years, $156M to bring him back. Detroit came in a bit higher at six years, $171.5M.
But Boston's higher-paying, shorter-term, option-laden offer won the day.
Bregman is expected to serve as Boston's primary second baseman, likely immediately becoming the most valuable second baseman in the majors, where Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien and Ketel Marte are probably the only competition worth mentioning.
We shall see whether the Green Monster helps or hurts him, though. Per Baseball Savant, he only would've been expected to hit 170 home runs to this point in his career if every game had been played at Fenway Park. He actually has 210, and the expected number had all games been in Houston is 239. But maybe he'll adjust his swing a bit for some moonshots to left.
The only real concern with this signing is where the next wave fits into the mix now. Per MLB.com, Boston has three of the nine highest rated position player prospects in all of baseball in Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer, but doesn't have anywhere to put them on the MLB roster for regular reps.
What a nice problem to have, though. On behalf of all fans of teams staring at a great big question mark or red flags at multiple spots on the diamond, no one is shedding a tear for the plight of the poor Red Sox and their overflowing cup of talent.
Nick Pivetta to the Padres
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Contract Details: 4 years, $55M, structured as $4M in 2025, $19M in 2026, $14M in 2027 and $18M in 2028. Can opt out after either 2026 or 2027.
Grade: B+
At least the Padres finally did something, right?
They lost Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery in October before putting a few too many eggs in the "We think we're going to get Roki Sasaki" basket. And very shortly after that minimum wage superstar pitcher signed with the NL West rival Dodgers instead, San Diego suddenly panicked and started entertaining Dylan Cease trade offers for the better part of a month.
With Pivetta now penciled in as the No. 4 starter, though, they appear to be in good shape for another run to the postseason.
What's unfortunate for the Padres is that because Pivetta received and declined a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, they'll lose their second-round pick in this summer's draft, as well as $500k from their international bonus pool for next year.
But at least they were able to structure the contract in such a way that he barely costs them anything else this season.
Pivetta got a $3M signing bonus and will play for a $1M salary in 2025, which was a must for a team that already has a payroll of around $200M. And when his salary spikes for 2026, at least there will be room in the budget for it once Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez and others hit free agency.
As an aside, Petco Park should be a great venue for home games for a pitcher who has always had a bit of an elevated rate of home runs allowed. Could be an underpaid breakout year from the 32-year-old righty.
Pete Alonso Stays with the New York Mets
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Contract Details: $30M in 2025 with a $24M player option for 2026
Grade: A+
Unwilling to come anywhere close to the six-year, $174M projection that Spotrac said Pete Alonso was worth in free agency—nor the five-year, $125M mark that MLB Trade Rumors predicted—the New York Mets played a dangerous, months-long game of chicken with the Polar Bear, basically daring him to try to find that type of nine-figure contract on the open market.
And when that deal never came Alonso's way, they welcomed him back with open arms on one of Scott Boras' beloved "one year plus a player option" contracts.
There's really no question that Alonso is worth $30M in 2025, especially to the Mets, who now have such a loaded lineup with Juan Soto in tow that pitching around him simply isn't feasible.
Rather, the question throughout the offseason was whether he'd still be worth $25M+ on an annual basis four or more years down the road. But that is presently of no matter to the Mets on this short-term deal.
It went viral the other day when Francisco Alvarez said the Mets now have a better lineup than the Dodgers, but he's probably not wrong.
Jack Flaherty Returns to Detroit
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Contract Details: $25M in 2025, $10M player option for 2026
Grade: B-
The overall notion of "Detroit adds one of the top five free-agent pitchers" is easily an A decision.
The Tigers had plenty of money to spend and needed to add something to what was a "Tarik Skubal or Bust" rotation five months ago. Some maybe thought they'd go all the way in to get Corbin Burnes, but Jack Flaherty is both a mighty fine option and one with whom they are already familiar after he spent the first four months of last season with them.
But this is a weird contract, right?
For starters, at $25M Flaherty will be tied for the 10th highest AAV among starting pitchers in 2025, which is pretty generous for a guy who basically had four great months in the past five years.
However, $25M is roughly the AAV that Luis Severino and Sean Manaea got on their deals, so evidently that's just the going rate these days for a pitcher who has a strong contract year after a few dud seasons.
The real oddity is that $10M player option, which has a zero percent chance of being exercised unless he's going to miss the entire 2026 campaign due to injury.
Worse yet, there's a $10M escalator on that 2026 option if he makes 15 starts this season. So, if he makes it to the All-Star break and then needs Tommy John, Detroit is going to wind up paying Flaherty $45M for half a season.
But, if he pitches well, takes his $25M and wades back into free agency next winter, that'll be a win for the Tigers.
Kenley Jansen to the Angels
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Contract Details: $10M in 2025
Grade: C-
Though Kenley Jansen most certainly has not been better over the past seven seasons (3.17 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 11.0 K/9) than he was for his first eight seasons (2.08 ERA, 1.84 FIP, 14.0 K/9), he's still one of the best closers in baseball and has pretty well remained the same pitcher throughout his 30s. In fact, 2024 might have been his best season since he was a Cy Young hopeful as a 29-year-old back in 2017.
In a vacuum, $10M for Jansen isn't bad value, particularly in an offseason where Tanner Scott went for 4/$72M, Kirby Yates got $13M for one year and all of Aroldis Chapman, Jeff Hoffman, Blake Treinen, A.J. Minter and Carlos Estévez signed for an AAV greater than $10M.
It just doesn't make sense for the Angels.
It's bad enough that they're already paying $11M per year for Robert Stephenson, who missed all of 2024 and probably won't be available until midway through 2025. Paying that type of money for a reliever should be a luxury reserved for a legitimate World Series contender, not a team trying to finish .500 or better for the first time in a decade.
But now they're paying that type of money for two relievers, which is madness.
Maybe the plan is to use him at closer just until Stephenson gets back, at which point they trade Jansen to whichever team is most desperately in need of bullpen help. And if that is the plan, it certainly could be worse.
Why pay $10M for a closer, though, when you have Ben Joyce right there, ready to throw a billion miles an hour in the ninth inning? Find out if that young star is ready to be the closer, considering Stephenson has only saved three games in his career, as is.
Clayton Kershaw Back for Year No. 18
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Contract Details: $7.5M in 2025, plus incentives for games started and days on active roster that could bring the total up to $16M
Grade: C
Giving this one a C because it's exactly what everyone expected to happen, but it could be a great pickup, if only for the legacy.
Given how laughably far above the competitive balance tax threshold the Dodgers are, this is really more like a $12M deal that could cost them more than $25M if Clayton Kershaw is healthy enough to make 16 starts.
Do we think they care, though? When they were already headed for an overall bill north of $500M for this season well before bringing back Kershaw?
And after all he has done for this franchise, what's another few million for even more pitching depth? It also saves them from some nightmare scenario where Kershaw plays his final season with a different team and has an Albert Pujols-style renaissance while pacing someone like the Texas Rangers to a World Series run.
We'll never know, though. Kershaw is back where he belongs, signing with the only team he was ever going to sign with if he tried to pitch in 2025.
He is recovering from toe and knee surgeries and will open the season on the IL. Whenever he makes it back, though, he'll be 32 strikeouts away from becoming the 20th (and maybe final?) member of the 3,000 strikeout club.
Yoán Moncada Also Joins the Halos
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Contract Details: $5M in 2025
Grade: A
Did the Angels already know that Anthony Rendon was likely to need hip surgery when they signed Yoán Moncada earlier this month? Or did they just make an educated guess that having an upside backup third baseman was a must, considering Rendon hasn't played in even 60 games in a season since 2019?
Either way, it's the Moncada show for the foreseeable future.
Of course, signing a constantly injured third baseman to backup a constantly injured third baseman is just about a self-fulfilling prophecy of doom. With 278 missed games of his own over the past three years, we're already waiting with bated breath to find out if Moncada can make it through spring training unscathed.
Given how good Moncada used to be when healthy, though, it's quite the buy-low option for $5M.
Could it go as disastrously as Miami's $5M investment in Tim Anderson last year? Sure.
Could it pan out as well as Washington's $5M investment in Jeimer Candelario from a few years ago? Also sure.
At any rate, the White Sox paid Moncada a $5M buyout to go away after giving them next to nothing for $56M over the previous three years combined. Can't go any worse than that, right?
A Platter of Outfielders
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Harrison Bader: $6.25M to the Twins (mutual option for 2026)
Randal Grichuk: $5M to the Diamondbacks (mutual option for 2026)
Tommy Pham: $4.025M to the Pirates
Ramón Laureano: $4M to the Orioles (club option for 2026)
Jason Heyward: $1M to the Padres
Connor Joe: $1M to the Padres
Let's start at the bottom with that little one-two punch that San Diego put together. Had the Padres not signed Heyward and Joe, it looked like they were going to give rookie Tirso Ornelas all the reps he could possibly handle in LF. Putting together a platoon situation for a grand total of $2M was a pretty fantastic last-minute pair of moves. A+ to them.
Likewise, Pittsburgh's LF situation was looking pretty bleak, to the point where bringing in a 37-year-old who posted a .674 OPS across three different teams last season feels like an upgrade. Not a definite home run, but an A- budget move by a team that lives and dies on budget moves.
Grichuk had a great 2024 with Arizona, and platooning his right-handed bat with the left-handed bats of Jake McCarthy and/or Pavin Smith could be a great play. He's not an everyday player, though, and wasn't anything special from 2019-2023. Bit of a B grade, whatever move there.
Baltimore dropping $4M on Laureano—one year after only having a handful of players on the entire roster making that much—was a weird one. The O's already have four solid outfield options in Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Cedric Mullins and Tyler O'Neill. They also scooped up Dylan Carlson for under $1M. They get a C for that one, and that might be generous.
Weirdest of all, though, was Minnesota doing essentially nothing for the entire offseason before making Harrison Bader their sixth-highest paid player. Maybe between Bader and Byron Buxton they'll be able to cobble together one healthy centerfielder. But if they had money to spend, it should've gone toward the rotation or their questionable 1B/2B situation. (They did also sign Ty France for $1M.) Twins get a D+.
