Unavoidable Phil Kessel Trade Bringing More Problems to Depleted Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs made a long-expected trade Wednesday, shipping Phil Kessel to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a massive, multiplayer deal. The return for Toronto was disappointing in some ways but not terribly surprising.

Here’s how the Globe and Mail’s James Mirtle broke down the trade:

The biggest piece of the deal isn’t a player; it’s the retained salary. Kessel has seven years left on his contract with an annual cap hit of $8 million. With the Leafs retaining 15 percent, the team will be operating with a cap penalty of $1.2 million per season until 2022. That’s on the other side of the team’s rebuild, and for a club with the ability to spend to the salary cap every year, it’s a significant sacrifice.  

The Leafs also surrendered cheap restricted free agent Tim Erixon (who will be a nice discount defenceman for the Penguins) and a second-round selection, which is probably the Penguins’ 2016 pick originally acquired in the Daniel Winnik deal.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

In exchange, Toronto acquired:

• Kasperi Kapanen. Pittsburgh’s first-round pick (No. 22 overall) in 2014, Kapanen made reasonable progress in Finland’s top league over the last season and had an impressive debut with the Penguins’ AHL affiliate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. If all goes well, Kapanen projects as a top-six NHL forward, but even if he reaches his ceiling, he isn’t likely to be Kessel’s equal. He likely needs time in a development league.
• Scott Harrington. Pittsburgh’s second-round pick (No. 54 overall) in 2011, Harrington just completed his second full campaign in the AHL and even managed to get into 10 major league games with the Pens. He’s a meat-and-potatoes defensive defenceman who has size and shutdown ability and stands a reasonable chance of evolving into a second-pairing option. He’s close to NHL-ready and should compete for a spot out of training camp.
• Nick Spaling. Spaling has one year left on his current deal at a $2.2 million cap hit, after which he will be a free agent. He’s a useful third-line forward for Toronto in the short term and a prime candidate to be flipped for draft picks at next spring’s trade deadline.
• First- and third-round picks. There are lots of conditions on these, and Pittsburgh’s first-round selection is not likely to be all that good, but these are nice pieces to have.
• A spot on the 50-man list. Tyler Biggs, though technically a prospect, is 22 years old and spent time in the ECHL last year. Pittsburgh did the Leafs a favour by clearing a body without any real NHL potential off their 50-man list.

It’s an underwhelming package, particularly when compared to the Rick Nash trade three summers ago. Nash and Kessel are highly comparable offensive players, and in Brandon Dubinsky and Artem Anisimov the Blue Jackets were able to land two NHL players better than Spaling as well as a first-round draft choice in that deal.

It’s also underwhelming in the sense that not only did Pittsburgh get the best player in the here-and-now, but four years from now, even if all goes well, a 31-year-old Phil Kessel will likely still be a superior player to any of the pieces Toronto landed.

Still, the Leafs were in a tough spot. The club’s commitment to a rebuild made a Kessel trade virtually inevitable; there won’t be much in the way of a supporting cast for him next season, and a second consecutive underwhelming year would have made the return even worse. Combine it with the near-constant criticism of the player in the Toronto media, and there was a good chance his value would have fallen a year from now.

That left the club in the difficult position of trying to move a player coming off a bad year during a summer where a slow-rising salary cap meant many teams simply didn’t have the salary room to take Kessel on. With a rather small field of potential buyers and their backs to the wall, the Maple Leafs were always likely to get a disappointing collection of assets in exchange for Kessel.

The loss of Kessel makes Toronto substantially worse next year. The idea of “addition by subtraction” has been suggested by some, but it’s a narrative with no basis in reality. Kessel was far and away the Leafs’ most dangerous offensive player; nobody in this deal comes close, and no one the team has landed or is likely to acquire via trade or free agency will adequately replace his production.

But then, in some ways, those problems may be welcomed by Toronto. The team is obviously committed to a rebuild and is an early front-runner for a top pick in next year’s entry draft. This deal, built primarily around pieces which won’t help the 2015-16 Maple Leafs, will certainly allow them to contend for a favourable draft lottery position.

Salary information courtesy of NHL Numbers.

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.