Miami Heat Could Survive Without Dwyane Wade, Even If It's Better to Keep Him
Dwyane Wade is the Miami Heat. Over the last 12 years, the idea of him wearing another jersey has surpassed unfathomable.
Until now…sort of.
Rewarding an aging player for what he's done earlier in his career doesn't always spell a storybook ending. The Los Angeles Lakers can justify paying a 37-year-old Kobe Bryant $25 million next season because of his five championships and profound value to the organization, but they cannot begin to argue he's worth that price tag from a team-building standpoint.
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Committing max or near-max money to Wade over the next few years could kill the Heat's offensive versatility while hamstringing them financially. The rest of Wade's days would then be spent playing on a second-tier basketball entity that never contends for more than a bottom-four playoff spot.
Who wins in that scenario?
With that said, Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reports that, despite other rumors to the contrary, the Heat are nearing a contract agreement with their 33-year-old free agent:
Getting to this point, where Wade may be a lock to return, has been weird.
When he hit the open market in 2010, embarking on a free-agency tour that included a host of tempting options, it never actually felt like he would leave Miami. And he didn't. He came back, bringing two other superstars with him.
This time feels different, even if only slightly different.
The why of it all has been picked apart and repackaged a zillion times over, but the driving force behind this conflict between player and team is actually pretty simple.
It's all about the money.
Miami was initially looking to re-sign Wade for $10 million annually, according to ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne and Brian Windhorst. Wade, however, is looking for a contract that'll pay him an average of at least $16 million in each of the next three seasons, per Shelburne. Wojnarowski reports the shooting guard may even be after max money.
That means, at minimum, there is or was a gap of $18 million sitting between Wade and the Heat. And when that much money is on the line, anything is possible—even the seemingly impossible.
To be sure, Wade staying in Miami remains the most likely outcome.
Very few teams are equipped to pay him the kind of money he's after. The ones that are won't be compelled to shell out a high eight-figure salary to a 33-year-old who hasn't cracked 70 single-season appearances since 2010-11.
As ESPN.com's Chris Broussard reported, there may not be any outside suitors for Wade at all:
Meeting Wade's asking price is different on the Heat's end. Even if he isn't worth the money he's seeking, they can justify his next payday as a legacy deal. He has helped the franchise win three championships and, as Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta shows, made plenty of financial concessions to this point:
At the same time, Miami could take a more hard-nosed approach.
That's where the Heat are now with Wade, contemplating whether the inevitable drop-off in his production is worth the years of loyalty.
But unlike the Lakers, the Heat's decision doesn't come down to paying Bryant or chasing outside options in free agency. They have an in-house core that gives them further incentive to not overpay Wade.
Chris Bosh is locked up for the next four seasons. Hassan Whiteside will be back through at least 2015-16. Luol Deng opted into the last year of his deal. Justise Winslow, a top-five prospect who fell to Miami at No. 10 in the draft, can play some shooting guard in Wade's absence.
Goran Dragic has already agreed to return on a five-year, $90 million deal, according to Wojnarowski.
With those five in place, the Heat find themselves on track for a foundation similar to the one ESPN.com's Michael Wallace proposed ahead of free agency:
Would it be out of place for the Heat to set a firm cap on Wade's earnings?
Is pushing forward without him disastrous?
Viewed in a basketball vacuum, losing Wade wouldn't be the blow that sends Miami into a years-long trip down Obscurity Lane.
Yes, Wade was one of only six players to average at least 21.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and one steal last season, joining a list that reads like a who's who of present-day superstars (and Bryant). And sure, he posted the sixth-best player efficiency rating of any guard.
But the Heat still missed the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference. Their offense was middle-of-the-road with Wade on the floor, pumping in 104.1 points per 100 possessions, which would have ranked 13th in the league overall. The defense was statistically worse with him in the lineup.
Wade's skill set, meanwhile, is quickly becoming outdated in today's pace-and-space NBA.
Almost 91 percent of his shot attempts last season came from inside the arc. He converted less than 30 percent of his three-balls for the fourth consecutive campaign.
He shot 35.4 percent outside 16 feet.
He finished in the top 10 of mid-range attempts, firing up 476, of which he hit just 40.3 percent.
Those are not offensive tendencies the league values anymore—not from a guard who's incapable of attacking the rim as frequently.
22.9 percent of Wade's field-goal attempts came inside three feet in 2014-15, down from 35.9 in 2013-14. Age will continue bilking his body of the athleticism and durability needed to survive serial drives into the paint.
What's Wade supposed to do then? How can he adapt when he has no outside game to speak of?
Make no mistake—letting Wade walk will be a public-relations disaster for Miami. It will be especially bad at the beginning, when emotions are running high and the Heat's contingency plan won't yet be put into full action.
There's also no telling how Wade's departure would impact Miami's ability to recruit future free agents. He's not only a franchise ambassador but a shining example of how the Heat take care of their own.
Even so, there's no point in pretending that, for straight basketball reasons, Wade's exit would act as some sort of death knell. The Heat are better off with him, if only because everything is simpler. And, as we now know, they're unlikely to ever experience life without him before he retires.
But in the event they do, life will go on—and not necessarily for the worse.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information courtesy of Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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