What Rafael Nadal's Loss to Dustin Brown Means for US Open 2015

One of the heavy favorites to win Wimbledon will be heading home a lot earlier than expected. Dustin Brown beat Rafael Nadal 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the second round of the tournament on Thursday. As a result, Brown will move on to the third round, where he'll meet Viktor Troicki.

As is the case with seemingly every major tournament in which Nadal is healthy enough to play, he entered Wimbledon with massive expectations. Only Novak Djokovic and possibly Andy Murray were more favored to take the title. You could throw Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka into the mix as well.

Some of the buzz surrounding Nadal was dampened a bit by his results so far in 2015. He lost in the quarterfinals at both the Australian Open and the French Open. This is also the third time in four Wimbledon appearances Nadal has been knocked out in the second round or before.

Wimbledon's official Twitter account reported some of what Nadal had to say after falling to Brown:

Other high-profile defeats were also interspersed for Nadal throughout the year, including a quarterfinal loss to Milos Raonic at the BNP Paribas Open, a third-round defeat to Fernando Verdasco at the Miami Open, a first-round defeat to Alexandr Dolgopolov at the Aegon Open and a finals loss to Andy Murray at the Madrid Open.

Back in March, Nadal spoke during the post-match press conference following his Miami Open exit about how he felt his issues this year were more mental than they were physical; he withdrew from the 2014 U.S. Open with a wrist injury and had a bit of a scare with his left ankle before the Miami Open:

"

As I said before, feeling much more comfortable in my tennis, practicing well, much better than in Australia, much better than Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires. But still playing on competition, you know, feeling more tired than usual, feeling that I don't have this self-confidence that when I hit the ball I’m gonna hit the ball where I want to hit the ball, to go for the ball running and knowing that my position will be the right one.

All these are small things that are difficult to explain. One of the tougher things have been fixed, that is the game, in my opinion. Now I need to fix again the nerves, the self-control on court. That's another issue.

"

If Nadal was still suffering from a crisis of confidence before the tournament, then a premature exit at Wimbledon likely won't help the situation, particularly given the way he lost. 

While Nadal did take a set off Brown, the German looked in control of the match almost throughout, and the Spaniard didn't seem to have an answer for Brown's shot-making ability. Even with all of Nadal's surprising losses in the past several events and his Wimbledon woes, few would have pegged him to go out this soon in such fashion.

The King of Clay has seemed to struggle transitioning from his preferred surface to the grass of the All England Club in recent years. Nadal will be in action at the majors next at the U.S. Open in August, which he's won twice in 2009 and 2013.

Flushing Meadows' hard courts are a faster surface, and it translates a bit better for Nadal's trademark topspin than grass, which lends to unpredictable bounces and somewhat mitigates the kick Nadal can get off his groundstrokes.

But what hurts Nadal the most is his lack of an elite serve, something that could be so useful at a U.S. Open and on the slick lawns of Wimbledon, for that matter.

Christopher Clarey of the New York Times highlighted how Brown turned to attack mode to take down one of men's tennis' all-time greats on Thursday:

Nadal doesn't generate a tremendous amount of pace in his service game, which lends itself to longer rallies and a more difficult time avoiding breaks. Serve-and-volley tactics aren't really feasible for Nadal. Engaging in prolonged points will only continue taking a toll on his body and won't be as effective on the hard court.

At least the U.S. Open is a Grand Slam site where Nadal has experienced the ultimate glory more recently than he has at Wimbledon, which has featured frustrating results for the most part since his last title in 2010.

Ultimately, the loss to Brown will contribute to the pall hanging over Nadal's season. It's clear the Spaniard is in a slump unlike anything he's experienced in his career, and he only has a couple of months or so to get his head—and his game—right on the hard courts.

If he cannot get himself sorted out, there's a chance that Nadal could end the 2015 campaign without a Grand Slam title for the first time since 2004.

Never mind the tumble Nadal has taken in the ATP rankings or the lackluster tennis he's played. The absence of a major win to hang his hat on may be the real, primary indicator that Nadal's best days are behind him.