SEC Football: Surprises from the Week 1 Opening Lines
It's June, and you're probably yearning for the fall to roll around so you can head to your favorite campus, fire up the grill and enjoy the opening weekend of the college football season.
Here's a little tease.
The offshore site 5Dimes released early lines for most Week 1 games this week, and included are several somewhat surprising spreads.
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| South Carolina | -5.5 | North Carolina | Charlotte, North Carolina |
| Texas A&M | -4 | Arizona State | Houston |
| Florida | -35.5 | New Mexico State | Gainesville, Florida |
| Georgia | -36 | UL-Monroe | Athens, Georgia |
| Kentucky | -13.5 | UL-Lafayette | Lexington, Kentucky |
| Tennessee | -24.5 | Bowling Green | Nashville, Tennessee |
| Vanderbilt | -1.5 | Western Kentucky | Nashville, Tennessee |
| Arkansas | -34.5 | UTEP | Fayetteville, Arkansas |
| Auburn | -13 | Louisville | Atlanta |
| Alabama | -13 | Wisconsin | Arlington, Texas |
| Mississippi State | -23.5 | Southern Miss | Hattiesburg, Mississippi |
Which lines from Week 1 are most surprising?
Lots of Faith in Auburn and QB Jeremy Johnson
It shouldn't be that much of a surprise that Auburn is a favorite over Louisville in a game being played inside a Georgia Dome that Auburn routinely fills when it plays in the building.
Nearly two touchdowns though? That's a bit much.
I'm more bullish on Auburn than most, but the Tigers still have to show off their more balanced attack with quarterback Jeremy Johnson at the helm against a Louisville pass defense that gave up just 199.6 yards per game through the air last year and had the fifth-best opponent passer rating (105.65) in the country.
On the other side of the ball, Will Muschamp was a fantastic hire for head coach Gus Malzahn, but a miraculous turnaround isn't what's expected of him nor is it necessary.
It especially shouldn't be expected in Week 1, when the Tigers are taking the field for the first time under Muschamp. You can practice all you want against the same team, but things are different when the lights come on and the jersey on the other sideline changes.
Auburn's defense only needs to be adequate for it to be in the title mix and anything more than that will be a bonus. There will be some growing pains early and that might prevent Auburn from truly hitting its stride till later in the season.
I think Auburn will win, but 13 points is way too high right now. I thought it'd be somewhere around seven, with 10 being the absolute max. That's a lot of faith in Johnson against a really good Louisville defense.
Do We Suddenly Trust South Carolina's Defense?
The South Carolina defense was a disaster last year, as it posted just 14 sacks—fewest in the SEC—and gave up 212.23 yards per game on the ground and 220.5 yards per game through the air.
Yet there the Gamecocks are, 5.5-point favorites over North Carolina on a neutral field.
Say what?
Is the presence of co-defensive coordinator Jon Hoke and junior college transfer defensive end Marquavius Lewis really going to flip the script and allow South Carolina to slow down a North Carolina offense that averaged 429.8 yards per game a year ago and returns a ton of weapons?
I'll believe that when I see it.
When South Carolina has the ball, it will be a matchup between a Gamecock unit that's a virtual unknown against a Tar Heel defense that has more holes than Swiss cheese.
There's far too much uncertainty in this game for 5.5 points. If I had to pick right now, I'd probably pick South Carolina to win, but I'm surprised that the Gamecocks are more than a field goal favorite.
Nobody Knows What to Make of Texas A&M
The goal for oddsmakers is to get money on both sides, and Texas A&M being a four-point favorite over Arizona State screams "we don't know what to do."
If you get three points for being at home from Vegas, playing a Pac-12 team in a "neutral site" game in Houston just down the road from College Station should be worth at least 1.5 to the Aggies, right?
If you like high-scoring fun, this game will be for you.
Texas A&M has been the one of the most fascinating teams this offseason, after head coach Kevin Sumlin lured defensive coordinator John Chavis away from LSU and quarterback Kyle Allen has had to deal with the giant shadow of incoming freshman quarterback and Texas high school legend Kyler Murray.
As Phil Savage of the Reese's Senior Bowl and SiriusXM notes, that game could be the best one on the docket on opening weekend.
Because both offenses can move seemingly at will and both defenses are questionable at best, the four-point spread is basically the oddsmakers saying that they don't know what to do, will give Texas A&M a slight nod for being close to home and having Chavis on board, and will move it based on where the money goes.
Alabama's 'Holes' Are Changing the Public's Perception
The number stands out like the bat signal calling for help.
Nine new starters on offense, including a new quarterback for the Alabama Crimson Tide.
That uncertainty is a big reason why Alabama is less than a two-touchdown favorite over Wisconsin in the AdvoCare Cowboys Classic, despite the Crimson Tide boasting one of the best defensive front sevens in the country and Wisconsin undergoing a coaching change and the loss of three starters on the offensive line.
Those 13 points might seem too high, but the perception of the Crimson Tide has changed over the last two seasons. Suddenly, after high-profile losses in major bowls, they're no longer invincible, and pesky little problems like replacing 5-star players with other 5-star players is a major issue in the minds of bettors.
Don't fall into that trap.
Even if Alabama's offense doesn't come out clicking on all cylinders against the Badgers, its defense will be just fine and allow the Tide to post at least a two-touchdown win even if it has to ride its own defense to get there.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats are courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted, and all recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports' composite rankings.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on Sirius 93, XM 208.
Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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