Every Top 25 Team's Must-Win Game of 2015 College Football Season
Sure, college football's coaches and players might call every game a "must-win." It's one of the biggest go-to cliches in sports.
But that doesn't mean it's completely true. Instead, when the schedules are finalized and the rosters are set, every team has that one game that it just has to win in order to keep its dreams alive.
Here is the biggest must-win game for every team in Bleacher Report's latest preseason top 25. These games were determined by the matchup's potential implications, placement on the schedule and amount of damage a loss could do to the team's conference and national title chances.
These aren't necessarily the biggest games on a given team's schedule, even though several of them are. They are the ones that can make or break a season the most.
Agree with the must-win selection for your team? Have any other suggestions? Share them in the comments below.
25. Boise State
1 of 25
Must-win game: at Utah State (Oct. 16)
The Boise State Broncos have all the horses—no pun intended—to make another serious run at a New Year's Six bowl this season after last year's triumph over Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. This season, Boise State might be the better team in every one of its matchups, including nonconference games against Washington and BYU to start the season.
But for the Broncos to have a chance at getting back to the big bowls this season, they have to take care of business in the Mountain West. Their biggest challenge in the conference will be a road Friday night game against Utah State, which will be desperate for a big upset this season after disappointing in high-profile contests last year.
"Lose that one, and it's possible the Broncos don't even win the MWC Mountain at 11-1," SB Nation's Bill Connelly wrote. "USU is strong enough to do the deed, but BSU will still be a solid favorite, as it will be in every game this year."
24. Georgia Tech
2 of 25
Must-win game: vs. Georgia (Nov. 28)
This game won't determine if Georgia Tech repeats as champion of the ACC Coastal. If the Yellow Jackets take care of business as the division's top team this season, they should survive a pair of non-division games against Clemson and Florida State with a trip to the conference title game still in play.
This year's edition of "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate" is a major one for Georgia Tech because a victory would give Tech its first winning streak against in-state rival Georgia for the first time since 2000.
After last season's wild win in Athens, beating the Bulldogs at their home field in Atlanta—a place where the Yellow Jackets haven't won a rivalry meeting since 1999—would be huge for Paul Johnson's program. Georgia could come into the game needing a big nonconference win to stay alive in the College Football Playoff hunt, which would make another victory that much sweeter for Tech.
23. Nebraska
3 of 25
Must-win game: vs. Wisconsin (Oct. 10)
Nebraska didn't just lose to Wisconsin last season. A record-breaking Melvin Gordon and Badgers offense obliterated the Huskers so much that the 35-point margin of victory seemed a little too small.
This season, Gordon is gone, and the Badgers have a new regime in charge, just like the Huskers. Even with the coaching changes at the two schools, these programs are the two best contenders for the Big Ten West crown, and this meeting could once again determine a spot in the conference title game.
Mike Riley's squad has home-field advantage this year and will be itching to avenge the beatdown it received last year in Madison. A victory here would be important for Riley and Nebraska—one that might carry the Huskers through a road trip to Minnesota the next week and the final stretch of the regular season.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
22. LSU
4 of 25
Must-win game: at Mississippi State (Sept. 12)
This one may seem a little early to be a must-win game on the schedule. However, as Geaux247's Shea Dixon wrote in April, LSU's promising start to the 2014 season went south right after its loss to Dak Prescott and Mississippi State in Baton Rouge.
"This game was a tone-setter for LSU in 2014, and not for the right reasons," Dixon wrote. "After a comeback win over Wisconsin in the opener, the Tigers jumped out to 3-0 as SEC play began. But the Bulldogs came to Baton Rouge and punched LSU in the mouth, and the Tigers didn’t have much of a response."
A loss for LSU in this game may mean double trouble, as the Tigers then host Auburn the next weekend. A 1-2 start would make Les Miles' seat reach nuclear levels of heat in Baton Rouge, but a revenge win at Mississippi State could set the Tigers up well for the rest of their SEC slate.
21. Oklahoma State
5 of 25
Must-win game: at West Virginia (Oct. 10)
Oklahoma State has lost its last two games against West Virginia, and both losses had major impacts on the trajectory of the rest of the two seasons.
In 2013, Oklahoma State lost 30-21 at West Virginia. If the Cowboys would have beaten the Mountaineers in Morgantown that year, they would have been undefeated and already Big 12 champions heading into Bedlam against Oklahoma. Last season, a 34-10 loss to WVU was a bad second defeat in what turned out to be an abysmal five-game losing streak.
The Cowboys get West Virginia right in the middle of their schedule this season, well before facing the trifecta of Big 12 title hopefuls in November. If Oklahoma State can get a win in Morgantown this season, it might be set up to play more than a spoiler role when it faces the likes of TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma.
20. Arizona
6 of 25
Must-win game: vs. UCLA (Sept. 26)
Last season, the Arizona Wildcats lost to both of the Los Angeles schools—USC and UCLA, for those of you who may be unfamiliar with geography—and still claimed the Pac-12 title. They probably won't get that luxury this season, which makes a home meeting with the Bruins so important.
Arizona's offense went completely limp against UCLA last season in a 17-7 loss at the Rose Bowl. This season, Arizona returns a lot of its offensive firepower and the heart of a defense that held the Bruins in check for most of their 2014 meeting. An improved performance is definitely on the cards here.
This conference opener is huge for Arizona, which then faces Stanford, Oregon State, Colorado and Washington State before a matchup with USC at the Coliseum. Beating UCLA would likely spark a huge October run for the Wildcats and make the USC game a potential division-title decider.
19. Texas A&M
7 of 25
Must-win game: vs. Alabama (Oct. 17) or vs. Auburn (Nov. 7)
Against Alabama and Auburn, Texas A&M needs to get at least one big win for Kevin Sumlin's sake.
Why? Well, since Sumlin took over in 2012, the Aggies are 0-5 against ranked teams at Kyle Field. Texas A&M has knocked off Alabama in Tuscaloosa and delivered a pair of huge road wins at Auburn, but it still hasn't recorded that signature home SEC win yet.
The good news is that 2015 might be the best chance for the Aggies to pick up one of those victories. The division looks wide open this season without a hands-down favorite, and Texas A&M gets the last two division champions at its own house. Recording one of these wins will be a huge point in the Aggies' progression to SEC title contention.
18. Arkansas
8 of 25
Must-win game: vs. Texas A&M (Sept. 26 in Arlington, Texas)
Oh, Arkansas. You came so close to making the big breakthrough in the SEC West last season, and last season's loss to Texas A&M was the first in a string of agonizing misses.
Still, the Hogs are trendy picks to contend in the division this season. Getting a victory against the Aggies, who beat them in overtime last season at Jerry World, would be a monumental step in that direction. If the momentum from the end of 2014 carries over into three straight nonconference wins and this matchup, Arkansas might be set for a big campaign.
But another loss to Texas A&M could be the start of another frustrating season in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks visit Alabama and fellow dark horse Tennessee the two weekends following the Texas A&M game. Just as much as a win could catapult the Razorbacks into national attention, a loss could easily turn into three straight and a battle to get into a decent bowl.
17. Oklahoma
9 of 25
Must-win game: at Baylor (Nov. 14)
Baylor only has three wins all-time against Oklahoma, and they have all come within the last four seasons. The Bears have wrangled control of this Big 12 series by destroying the Sooners over the past two years—a 41-12 rout in Waco and then a 48-14 beatdown in Norman last year.
Oklahoma cannot let that happen again. The Sooners face a monstrous three-game stretch to end the season against Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State, and the road matchup with the Bears opens it.
Win here, and Oklahoma most likely has the upper hand in the Big 12 race heading into a home game against TCU the next weekend. A loss could end any hope of a title and have the Sooners reeling in the middle of a trifecta of opponents who beat them last year. This year's meeting with Baylor can't be a loss for championship-focused Oklahoma, and it definitely can't be another blowout.
16. Florida State
10 of 25
Must-win game: at Clemson (Nov. 7)
The road to the ACC Championship Game will most likely run right through Death Valley this season as Florida State plays its rematch of last season's overtime thriller with Clemson in early November. This winner of this matchup has won the Atlantic Division title every year since 2009.
At this point in the season, both teams could be undefeated and competing to be the conference's best chance at the College Football Playoff. Barring some early losses on the schedule for Clemson, Florida State is probably going to be the underdog heading into this game—a rare role for a team that has won three straight ACC titles.
Florida State will already be road-tested in the ACC from its game at Georgia Tech in October. A Seminoles victory would put them in line for a four-peat in the conference. A loss, on the other hand, could keep them out of Charlotte and away from the national title picture.
15. Tennessee
11 of 25
Must-win game: vs. Georgia (Oct. 10)
All right, Tennessee, let's see how big of a contender you really are in the SEC East this season. The Vols should be favored in their first two conference games of the year—on the road against Florida and at home against Arkansas—and then division favorite Georgia comes to town.
Georgia has won five straight against Tennessee but has taken the last three games in the series only by a combined 13 points. Home-field advantage can be crucial in this one, as an overmatched Tennessee team lost to then-No. 6 Georgia on a heartbreaking overtime fumble in their last meeting at Neyland Stadium in 2013.
This matchup has all the makings of a division title game on paper. If Tennessee can get over the hump and finally get a victory against Georgia after several close losses, it will head into the back half of the schedule as the new team to beat in the SEC East.
14. Arizona State
12 of 25
Must-win game: at UCLA (Oct. 3)
Like rival Arizona, Arizona State needs to get a big win against UCLA in order to contend for the Pac-12 title this season. A home loss to USC in the Pac-12 opener won't kill the Sun Devils' chances of winning the South, of course, but back-to-back losses against the two Los Angeles schools would bury them.
UCLA smacked Arizona State to the tune of 62-27 in a Thursday night game last season, and revenge must be on the minds of the Sun Devils heading into 2015. If true freshman quarterback Josh Rosen can help the Bruins continue their offensive success, Arizona State could be in for another long day.
Beating UCLA would set up Arizona State for a run in a favorable back half of the schedule, with the exception of a home game against Oregon. A loss could be a blow to its South hopes or another dagger in a rough start to the season—Arizona State has to play Texas A&M and USC before it even reaches the Rose Bowl in early October.
13. Georgia
13 of 25
Must-win game: vs. Florida (Oct. 31 in Jacksonville, Fla.)
A rather bizarre upset loss to Florida cost Georgia an SEC East title and its national title hopes last season. Sure, there might be bigger games for the Bulldogs this season in terms of opponent strength, but Mark Richt's team simply can't lose to the Gators this season.
No matter the caliber of either side, this series has put out some close games over the last few seasons—with the exception of last season's 38-20 victory for Florida. From 2010 to 2013, these rivalry clashes were all decided by one possession.
Georgia's annual letdown game would be awful at this spot in the season, especially against such a hated rival. A win would most likely keep the Bulldogs in control of their own destiny in the East race before finishing the conference slate against Kentucky and Auburn. A loss to Florida would probably mean Georgia needs to win in Auburn in order to have a shot at making it to Atlanta.
12. Clemson
14 of 25
Must-win game: vs. Florida State (Nov. 7)
Like Florida State, Clemson's ultimate goal this season is to win the ACC and have a shot at the College Football Playoff. The winner of this game is most likely the winner of the Atlantic Division, so this is also the must-win candidate for Clemson this season.
Before the Seminoles' 51-14 destruction of Clemson in 2013, the Tigers had won their previous five home games in this series. Clemson needs to make the home-field advantage in Death Valley count in this one.
The bright lights will be on Clemson in this matchup as it looks to end Florida State's long streak of ACC dominance. Even if Deshaun Watson and company slip up against Louisville, Georgia Tech or North Carolina State, they can still win the division with a home victory against the kings of the conference.
11. Ole Miss
15 of 25
Must-win game: at Auburn (Oct. 31)
Halloween in Auburn would be the perfect time for the Rebels to avenge their nightmare loss to the Tigers in 2014. Laquon Treadwell's fumble and injury near the goal line knocked Ole Miss out of College Football Playoff contention in the midst of what was a historic season in Oxford.
The way this matchup falls on the schedule is equally important as to why it's such a must-win game for Ole Miss. This could potentially be an elimination game in the SEC West before we even hit the month of November, as the Rebels will have already played Alabama, Florida and Texas A&M.
A win would most likely keep Ole Miss' division hopes intact and knock Auburn down ahead of a brutal final month of the season. The events of last season and the implications of this season make this Halloween clash a huge game in the SEC.
10. UCLA
16 of 25
Must-win game: at Stanford (Oct. 15)
This is another game that has an added element of revenge to it—or it might just be immense frustration.
UCLA has lost seven straight games against Stanford, including a 31-10 surprise defeat that ended its hopes of sneaking into the College Football Playoff. The fact this game will be at Stanford makes this one even harder for UCLA, which has lost by multiple possessions in its last two trips to the Farm.
While their first five games are no walk in the park, the Bruins likely can't afford to lose another one to the Cardinal. If the Bruins split their back-to-back contests against the two Arizona schools, then this one will be even more of a must-win.
9. Auburn
17 of 25
Must-win game: vs. Georgia (Nov. 14)
Many Auburn and Alabama fans are probably salivating over another Iron Bowl to determine the SEC West, but the Tigers are going to have to get through a tough schedule relatively unscathed before that 2013 rematch can happen.
Of all the potential pitfalls before the Iron Bowl, the annual rivalry game with Georgia stands out as the biggest challenge. Even though the Tigers get the Bulldogs at home this year, they have lost seven out of their last nine to Georgia.
The last two Auburn teams to beat Georgia went on to win the SEC and play for the national championship. While that might just be coincidence, Auburn will most likely need to win this year's edition of the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry in order to set up any massive finales.
8. Oregon
18 of 25
Must-win game: at Arizona State (Oct. 29)
It's a Thursday night game against an Arizona team, Oregon! What could possibly go wrong here?
The Ducks' lone regular-season slip-up last year came against Arizona in a nationally televised Thursday night contest in Eugene. This season, Oregon has to hit the road for its midweek contest against an Arizona State team that will be looking to survive in the Pac-12 South race.
Depending on the result of Oregon's game at Michigan State early in the season—more on that later—this game against the Sun Devils could be the conference contest that knocks the Ducks out of playoff contention. Oregon has won its last eight meetings against Arizona State, but they haven't met since 2012. If Oregon is going to be a national title contender again, it can't have a letdown at this point on the schedule.
7. Notre Dame
19 of 25
Must-win game: vs. USC (Oct. 17)
Notre Dame will already have faced a few big tests before it faces rival USC, a team that delivered a 49-14 smackdown in Los Angeles last year. However, this prime-time, nationally televised game is going to command the most attention for the Fighting Irish this season—and it comes at a tough time on the schedule.
"The Irish face USC following their matchup with Navy, and there’s been talk recently of a post-option hangover for the Irish and their defense," Bleacher Report's Mike Monaco wrote in March. "If the Irish do lag after facing the Midshipmen, USC is not the opponent they'll want to run into next."
This game is make or break for Notre Dame's national title hopes, even more so if it has already lost to either Georgia Tech or Clemson. A victory could put the Irish on the fast track to the College Football Playoff. A loss would make it another year of waiting for this historic program.
6. USC
20 of 25
Must-win game: vs. UCLA (Nov. 28)
Several games could fit this bill for USC, a team that has received a ton of championship hype so far this offseason. While titles are the biggest goals for any top program, reclaiming the city of Los Angeles from UCLA might be even bigger for USC this season.
Since USC's 50-0 destruction of UCLA in 2011, UCLA has won three of these city clashes in a row. With the game in the Coliseum this season, this would be the perfect time for the Trojans to continue their renaissance into a national power with a victory in this rivalry game.
This matchup could also determine the Pac-12 South title, potentially adding more fuel to USC's fire. However, not wanting to lose four straight to the Bruins is probably enough motivation for Steve Sarkisian's squad this year.
5. Alabama
21 of 25
Must-win game: vs. LSU (Nov. 7)
Again, the easy answer here is the Iron Bowl, but Alabama has to venture through what Bleacher Report's Marc Torrence called the toughest schedule of the Nick Saban era in Tuscaloosa. But before the late-November buzz of the Iron Bowl as a "national quarterfinal" can begin, the Tide have to open the month against another team of Tigers.
Six of the last seven regular-season matchups between Alabama and LSU have been decided by single digits, including 2014's 20-13 overtime victory for the Crimson Tide in Baton Rouge. While the last meeting in Tuscaloosa was a 38-17 win for Alabama, that was an outlier for what to expect from these heavyweight bouts.
The spotlight will be on this matchup once again, and Alabama probably won't be able to survive a November loss with its playoff chances intact. LSU would love nothing more than to get its first win over Alabama since the 9-6 victory in 2011.
4. TCU
22 of 25
Must-win game: at Oklahoma (Nov. 21)
The Baylor vs. TCU matchup everyone wants to see can only have its massive implications if the two teams get to the contest as the top two squads in the Big 12.
A loss to Oklahoma could change that for TCU, which had lost three straight to the Sooners prior to last season's 37-33 thriller. Oklahoma jumped out to a lead on the road, but TCU battled back and then put the defensive clamps down for the victory.
Looking ahead to the Baylor game could be deadly to TCU's playoff chances, because a team like Oklahoma could exact its revenge this time around. While Norman wasn't as intimidating of a place to play in 2014, road wins are usually hard to come by against Oklahoma, and TCU will have to take care of business first before the all-Texas showdown the following week.
3. Michigan State
23 of 25
Must-win game: vs. Oregon (Sept. 12)
The epic Big Ten East matchup between Michigan State and Ohio State is one that the Spartans must win to have a chance at winning the conference this season, but the Oregon game could carry more weight in the national title race.
If Michigan State defeats Oregon at home during the second week of the season, the Spartans will be validated as a team in the hunt for the national title. Then, even with a close loss to No. 1 Ohio State later in the season, Michigan State could still have a great chance at making the playoff thanks in part to the high-quality nonconference win.
Lose the game against Oregon, and the Spartans will have to beat Ohio State in Columbus to keep any big postseason plans. This one will go a long way in determining how far Michigan State goes in 2015.
2. Baylor
24 of 25
Must-win game: at TCU (Nov. 27)
This one will be a must-win for TCU too, but the potential "Big 12 Championship Game" carries an added amount of significance for Baylor because it's on the road.
Since the start of their 10-win season in 2011, the Bears have never beaten a team ranked in the Top 15 on the road—last year's rout of then-No. 16 Oklahoma almost changed that. Barring some sort of collapse by the Horned Frogs, their opponents in this massive showdown will be firmly in that range.
Baylor and TCU look set to be on a collision course for the Big 12 title and a playoff place this season, and it could all come down to this game. As the road team, the pressure is especially on Baylor for this Friday night fireworks show.
1. Ohio State
25 of 25
Must-win game: vs. Michigan State (Nov. 21)
The Buckeyes' dreams of repeating as Big Ten and national champions might hinge on their performance against the Spartans, who are their biggest competition inside the conference.
Ohio State and Michigan State have played some close games in recent years, and Urban Meyer's program will be thankful this year's matchup will be in front of the home fans at the Horseshoe. This should be a massive game that determines who goes to Indianapolis as the Big Ten East champion.
Even if they slip against a team like Virginia Tech or Penn State earlier in the season, a victory here would most likely give the Buckeyes control of their own destiny in the Big Ten and the playoff hunt. The journey to back-to-back titles reaches its peak right here.
Justin Ferguson is an on-call college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
