Teams Whose National Championship Chances Are Undervalued by Vegas Lines
Las Vegas doesn't make a habit of missing on teams—its bright lights and big buildings are testaments to that fact.
But each offseason, through the constant analyzing and overanalyzing of every major college football program, a few strong teams that could realistically play a role in the national championship race are left behind by Vegas.
Finding these teams is a tough challenge every season because almost every program has major question marks at this point in the year. National title odds can change at any time because of preseason injuries and possible off-the-field incidents.
With that in mind, here are five teams whose national championship odds, according to Odds Shark (using 5Dimes' latest numbers), are undervalued heading into the 2015 season. For comparison, the five teams' odds are listed alongside the schools' places in Bleacher Report's latest preseason Top 25 rankings.
Which of these undervalued programs do you think has the best shot at winning it all this season? Do you see any other teams whose title odds are being underrated by Vegas? Sound off in the comments below.
Baylor
1 of 5
B/R's Post-Spring Practice Ranking: 2
National Championship Odds: 24/1 (eighth best)
Both of last season's co-champions from the Big 12 are placed highly in most projected preseason polls. However, despite the fact it returns more starters from 2014 than TCU, Baylor's national championship odds from Vegas are lagging behind the amount of preseason hype the Horned Frogs are receiving.
Perhaps there is some uncertainty about Baylor's chances because of its quarterback situation, but projected starter Seth Russell has a throwing ability that star wide receiver Corey Coleman called "the best [he's] seen," according to the Dallas Morning News' Chuck Carlton. Baylor has had the nation's best offense for each of the last two seasons in both yards and points, and the team has confidence Russell can lead it to a three-peat.
Baylor is also blessed with what Bleacher Report's Ben Kercheval called "easily the best, most experienced O-line/D-line combo in the Big 12." With a great amount of experience all across the roster and a favorable schedule—TCU on the road looks like the only game in which the Bears might not be the favorites—Baylor has the qualities of a team that could run the table and contend for a national title.
Michigan State
2 of 5
B/R's Post-Spring Practice Ranking: 3
National Championship Odds: 28/1 (ninth best)
From top to bottom, Michigan State has all the pieces of a national championship contender for 2015. But in terms of preseason national championship odds, Michigan State is around the same level as teams with more question marks such as Georgia, LSU and Oregon.
The Spartans have an experienced starter at quarterback in Connor Cook, elite talent on both lines and a top-level coaching staff that has led the program to 11 wins in four out of the last five seasons. They also have to replace several key players in both backfields, and as the Detroit Free Press' Joe Rexrode wrote in April, "No matter how strong you are in the trenches, you don't win one of those anymore without special playmakers on the outside."
However, Michigan State has plenty of capable yet unproven players ready to step up in those positions. The Spartans' tough schedule—which includes a massive home test against Oregon and road games against Michigan, Nebraska and title favorite Ohio State—might doom their national championship hopes, but it could also give them the opportunity to get into the playoff without a perfect record.
Notre Dame
3 of 5
B/R's Post-Spring Practice Ranking: 7
National Championship Odds: 32/1 (tied for 12th best)
With the second-most returning starters in all of college football, according to Phil Steele, and an answer to its offseason quarterback drama in Malik Zaire, Notre Dame looks prepared to jump back into the national championship discussion in 2015. But even with the top-10 projections, Notre Dame is behind almost a dozen teams when it comes to national championship odds.
Zaire will have a number of great playmakers around him, including star receiver William Fuller, who finished third in the nation last season in touchdown catches (15). Head coach Brian Kelly also likes the look of his offensive line, as he told USA Today's Kevin Trahan the Irish are "going to be able to control the line of scrimmage in most instances."
Notre Dame returns a lot of experience from a defense that looks like it could take the next step this season, its second under defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder. Outside of a midseason trip to Clemson as part of the program's deal with the ACC, Notre Dame's 2015 schedule sets up well for a strong run to the second College Football Playoff.
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Ole Miss
4 of 5
B/R's Post-Spring Practice Ranking: 11
National Championship Odds: 45/1 (16th best)
The SEC West should be an even more unpredictable minefield than it has been in seasons past, with each team looking like a possible division contender. One of the most intriguing teams in that mix is Ole Miss, which had one of the most exciting seasons in school history despite four losses in its last six games.
Ole Miss' "Landshark" defense, which ranked No. 1 in scoring last season, has a wealth of talent up front and some pieces back from its swarming secondary. Head coach Hugh Freeze had the Rebels offense playing faster this spring, according to the Clarion-Ledger's Riley Blevins, and that could mean a surge of production for star targets Laquon Treadwell, Cody Core and Evan Engram. Also, a change at quarterback from the turnover-prone Bo Wallace might be a blessing in disguise for Ole Miss.
When it's on, the Rebels defense showed last season that it could be a challenge for anyone on the team's schedule, including the likes of defending conference champion Alabama. The race to find a playoff team out of the SEC should be a wild ride, and Vegas just isn't giving Ole Miss enough credit as a contender this offseason.
UCLA
5 of 5
B/R's Post-Spring Practice Ranking: 10
National Championship Odds: 32/1 (tied for 12th best)
UCLA is another team on this list that returns a massive amount of starters and doesn't have a regular-season matchup against its conference's defending champion—in this case, the Oregon Ducks. But perhaps Vegas and even B/R's Top 25 are lower on the Bruins this season because of how 2014 turned out, with former quarterback Brett Hundley's squad falling three times at home.
While the Bruins are most likely going to replace Hundley with true freshman Josh Rosen, the offense around him is unbelievably stacked. UCLA returns the Pac-12's leading rusher in Paul Perkins, its top five receivers from a season ago and, according to Phil Steele, the most career starts of any offensive line in the entire FBS. Head coach Jim Mora is turning over his defense to coaching veteran Tom Bradley, who inherits popular linebacker Myles Jack and several more potential stars.
The Bruins' 2015 schedule is no walk in the park, as they must face Arizona, Stanford, Utah and USC—all away from home. But UCLA has the most returning talent in a Pac-12 that doesn't have a runaway favorite for its conference crown and a potential spot in this season's playoff.
Justin Ferguson is an on-call college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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