French Open 2015: Analyzing Roger Federer's Draw
When the French Open slides across the baseline, one thinks of the constants in life: death, taxes and Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros.
That tide could be receding this year and that’s Parisian accordion music to one Roger Federer’s ears. Federer, the all-time leader in Grand Slams, gets a favorable draw for a possible deep run into Week 2 in the City of Light. In his mind, Nadal—recent form forgiven—remains the man to beat.
“Regardless of what anyone says to me he's the favorite,” Federer said of Nadal to Tennis.com. “The guy’s only lost once in 10 years.”
The French Open is Federer’s weakest major as he’s only (only by his standards) reached the finals five times and won just one.
In any case, Federer has a fairly direct path the semifinals and maybe even the final, but if this Swiss has any holes, it’s on clay.
Because, in theory, just about any player could face Federer in this draw, I'll focus on the most probable opponent for that round based on seed. Who wants a treatise on Diego Schwartzman?
Single-handed backhands are a premium here. Click on through for a Federer-style rally.
1st Round: Alejandro Falla (Q)
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Last Time Federer Lost in This Round: 2003
Head-to-Head vs. Alejandro Falla: 7-0
The last time Federer lost in the first round at the French Open was in 2003. Don’t worry, there will be no “gas prices were $X.XX per gallon and XX was president," though you should unequivocally know the answer to the latter. Hint: It’s not James Polk.
Federer draws Alejandro Falla and will play cat to Falla’s ball of yarn. The two have met seven times and Falla has won just a single set.
Federer took Falla to class twice in the French Open in 2006 and 2010 in the round of 64. This won’t be pretty for Falla.
2nd Round: Marcel Granollers
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Last Time Federer Lost in This Round: Never
Head-to-Head vs. Marcus Granollers: 3-0
Granollers, the 56th player on tour, plays qualifier Matthias Bachinger of Germany in the first round.
Granollers has had some success at the French Open, advancing to the fourth round in two of the past three years. He’s never been past the fourth round in any Grand Slam.
One thing is certain in the early rounds: Federer won’t look past anyone. He said in Drew Lilley’s RolandGarros.com story:
"Clearly having Rafa in Novak's section is the biggest news. But you don't want to disrespect all the players that are in between those two. We the players are very careful, because there are tour professionals that are unbelievable players, and they get forgotten in the process, which I think is a bit of a pity.
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Can Granollers poke holes in Federer’s game? Maybe. He seems like the type who could win Set 1 and lose the next three or drop the first two and win the third before losing in four.
3rd Round: Ivo Karlovic (25)
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Last Time Federer Lost in This Round: 2004
Head-to-Head vs. Ivo Karlovic: 12-1
The scale continues to weigh heavy in Federer's direction. His record against these possible opponents through the first three rounds is a combined 22-1.
As for Ivo Karlovic, Federer last lost to him in 2008 on the hard court in Cincinnati. That's all.
In 2015, Karlovic has a 13-9 record and 434 aces through those 22 matches. As for Federer, through 30 matches, he has just 232 aces. Karlovic's chances rest on that serve.
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4th Round: Pablo Cuevas (21)
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Last Time Federer Lost in This Round: 2014
Head-to-Head vs. Pablo Cuevas: 2-0
Cuevas, the No. 21 seed, may be Federer’s first real test of the tournament. Sure, Federer is unbeaten in two matches against Cuevas—both on clay—but the Argentinian may have the chops to upset Federer here.
The two met most recently in the round of 32 at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Rome where Federer won in two sets. The most promising result, so far as Cuevas is concerned, is that berth in the finals in Istanbul. Federer won, but Cuevas hung on for the three sets and forced an 11-point tie break in the deciding third set.
"It's difficult to face Roger, not only because of his game but also to stay focused on the game and not get distracted," said Cuevas on ATPWorldTour.com. "It was a very good experience for me, and I think it will help me in the future."
The future could be the fourth round at Roland Garros.
Quarterfinals: Stan Wawrinka (8)
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Last Time Federer Lost in This Round: 2013
Head-to-Head vs. Stan Wawrinka: 16-2
At some point a man’s record becomes more indicative of his internal battle against an opponent as much as it is external. Wawrinka, a Grand Slam winner and world-class talent, has little success against his fellow countryman.
In 2014 Wawrinka finally snapped a losing streak that began in 2009 in the final of the Masters 1000 Monte Carlo on clay. He said in an ATPWorld.com recap:
"It's always special to play Roger. We know it's always a strange match, especially being in the final here. He's my best friend on the tour. We respect each other so much. I'm just trying on the court to win the match. Before and after, we are still very good friends. During the match, we just try everything to win.
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And Federer has been a totalitarian dictator of these matches. Should the two meet in the quarterfinals, the edge, at least mentally, goes to Federer.
Wawrinka will have to dominate his first-serve points (something Federer is quite adept at too). This year Wawrinka has won 76 percent of said points. On return, he only wins 29 percent of first serves. That jumps up to 52 percent for second-serve returns.
Semifinals: Kei Nishikori (5)
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Last Time Federer Lost in This Round: 2012
Head-to-Head vs. Kei Nishikori: 3-2
Kei Nishikori falls into that I-don’t-care-who’s-across-the-net category of young player. Much like the young guns in golf who care little for the “presence” of a Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson, Nishikori feeds off a similar confidence.
Through his first three matches against Federer, Nishikori earned a 2-1 record including one win on clay in 2013.
"I wasn't really expecting this," said Nishikori on ATPWorldTour.com. "6-2 in the third, that's not easy against him. I played well. I was a little bit tight of course, but he didn't make many first serves in the third set and I was able to attack his second. I was even more aggressive in the third set. I'm pretty happy the way I played."
How did he do it?
Nishikori “survived tight moments on serve” and that will have to be the case in the semis.
Diving a little deeper, Nishikori has faced 176 break points saving 68 percent in 2015 to Federer’s 98 for 67 percent. Nishikori has a way of grinding out matches and that can be key on clay to wear down a powerful player like Federer.
Final: Novak Djokovic (1)
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Last Time Federer Lost in This Round: 2011
Head-to-Head vs. Novak Djokovic: 20-19
You’d have to go back to 2007 to find a time when these two didn’t face each other in either the semifinals or final. It's just amazing the level these two have played at for the past decade to meet each other 39 times with only five of those times not being in the final four or final pairing in a tournament.
Going back to the beginning of 2014, Djokovic has the slight 5-4 edge over Federer with all five of those wins coming in finals. The latest—the 2015 Masters 1000 Rome in 75 minutes—came on clay.
Though Djoker and, by extension, Rafa Nadal, are not technically on Federer’s side of the bracket, Federer thinks otherwise. He said in Drew Lilley’s RolandGarros.com article:
"(Nadal and Djokovic) are not on my side of the draw, but they are, because at the end of the day we are all playing the same tournament. Whether it's in the semis or in the finals, if you lose, you lose at one point or another. So my objective is to not lose. I may not play these players right away, but I may have to play them later. It will be interesting to see Rafa play Novak. Rafa is very difficult to beat. Except for Soderling, I don't really know who else can do it.
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As it stands, Djoker stands atop Mount Everest with Federer on the slight decline standing on the Hillary Step.
It’ll be tough for Federer because it’s a Djokovic world now and everyone else just gets to play in it.
That said…
Prediction
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I may be alone and that’s all right, more French cooking and Burgundy wine for moi. I think Federer can and will win this tournament. Draw a line through that rout back in the Eternal City at the hands of the Djoker.
Nadal, in search of his 10th title in Paris, hasn’t found his groove, but Roland Garros has a way of re-tuning his guitar, as it were. Djokovic will likely tango with Nadal in the quarterfinals and who knows how that will turn out for the Serb.
For the most part Federer has fewer hurdles in his draw, and the hurdles he does have aren’t Olympic-level height. That could spell a relatively un-bruised Federer heading into his sixth career final and his second French Open triumph.
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