MLBs 10 Biggest Trade Chips 2 Months from the Deadline
Although summer has not yet blossomed, enough baseball is on record to begin identifying contenders and pretenders. With clubs gaining and losing ground in the standings, trading season will gradually open.
Not every team with a losing record will press the panic button, but organizations with no realistic expectations now know a miracle isn't happening. With that, several highly discussed names will once again enter the limelight.
More than two months remain before the July 31 trade deadline, but why wait to address a pressing need? Contrary to what it sometimes seems, teams are indeed allowed to make moves before the day of the deadline.
Almost two months into the 2015 campaign, let's take a gander at some of baseball's top trade candidates.
Honorable Mentions
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A.J. Pierzynski, C, Atlanta Braves
Hitting .293/.333/.457 through 102 plate appearances, A.J. Pierzynski could offer a temporary offensive spark behind the plate.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
With Aramis Ramirez set to retire after the season, the Milwaukee Brewers should allow him the courtesy of making his first playoff appearance since 2008.
Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
Thirteen years removed from his dominant MLB debut, Francisco Rodriguez remains a premier source of strikeouts from the bullpen.
Tyler Clippard, RP, Oakland Athletics
A longtime setup man, Tyler Clippard would likely slide back into that role if dealt from the Oakland Athletics. His 2.86 career ERA through 510 career innings makes him one of the game's sturdiest relievers.
Jon Niese and Dillon Gee, SPs, New York Mets
Noah Syndergaard isn't going anywhere, and Steven Matz is waiting for his turn in Triple-A. The New York Mets shouldn't weaken their biggest strength by utilizing a six-man rotation for too long.
10. Kyle Lohse, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
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Kyle Lohse deserves an ample share of blame for the Milwaukee Brewers' disastrous start. The typically reliable righty, who wielded a 3.28 ERA from 2011 to 2014, has started 2015 with a 5.53 ERA.
Yet the 36-year-old is gradually repairing his value in time for a deadline deal, a probable result considering his expiring contract. During his last six starts, Lohse has registered a 3.55 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, recovering from an eight-run shellacking to start the season.
Furthermore, the veteran boasts a career-high 7.04 strikeouts per nine innings with a 9.9 swinging-strike percentage. A few more home runs cleared the fences than usual—something clubs playing in spacious parks should consider.
Given his strong track record, an interested club won't be able to buy too low on Lohse. Then again, nobody should have to pay the moon to rent a soft-tossing veteran for a few months.
9. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
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At this rate, nobody is going to want Carlos Gonzalez. The once proud slugger has carried over his struggles from 2014, hitting .209/.288/.331. Dating back to last year, he's batting .227 over the last 110 games with a minus-1.5 WAR.
Oh yeah, he'll also make more than $37 million during the next two years. So OK, everyone, form a nice, orderly line for his services.
The Colorado Rockies have balked at trading him before, and his value has now reached its nadir. While the market would be far slimmer than before, this is still an outfielder with a career .860 OPS, albeit one inflated by Coors Field.
Trade talks will resurface with Colorado occupying last place in the National League West. Unless injured, Gonzalez should at the very least catch fire at Coors to salvage some trade value, were the Rockies to reconsider that route.
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8. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Holders of a minus-50 run differential, the Philadelphia Phillies are as bad as everyone expected despite a recent hot streak (they won five consecutive games from May 14-18). After finally moving some veterans during the offseason, they have several more intriguing trade candidates.
Jonathan Papelbon's name is no stranger to the trade market. The established closer has stayed put through constant chatter, and he's making the most of a bad situation with a 1.50 ERA and 11 saves. At age 34, he'd still represent a ninth-inning upgrade for several squads, most notably the Toronto Blue Jays.
The only problem? He's on track to earn a $13 million vesting option for 2016. No knock on Papelbon, but many teams aren't willing or able to shell out that much dough for a reliever.
When desperation creeps in closer to the deadline, someone is more likely to bite the bullet.
7. Aaron Harang, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Amid a sea of rubble, Aaron Harang has compiled a pristine 1.82 ERA for Philadelphia. Including last year's resurgence with the Atlanta Braves, the veteran righty has a 3.17 ERA through his last 263.2 innings.
Not even general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. can bungle this obvious sell-high situation. A 37-year-old hurler with a 4.15 career ERA is pitching over his head for baseball's worst team. He's also doing it on a one-year, $5 million deal, which means he'll parlay his resurgence into a meatier contract this winter.
Just about every contender wouldn't mind inserting an affordable, durable veteran into its rotation. Amaro shouldn't waste any time, as every passing week gives Harang a chance to sink his sky-high stock.
The Phillies have waited too long on selling in the past, but they need to temper expectations and pawn Harang off for a mid-level prospect.
6. Scott Kazmir, SP, Oakland Athletics
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The new-look Oakland Athletics possess baseball's worst record (15-30) with almost two months in the books. Barring a complete turnaround during the next two months, proactive general manager Billy Beane will again unload his veterans.
Scott Kazmir has proved to be a valuable member of Oakland's rotation since signing a two-year, $22 million deal before 2014. After posting a 3.55 ERA last season, the revitalized lefty carries a 3.09 ERA and a ratio of 8.62 strikeouts per nine innings through nine starts.
But Beane isn't one to show loyalty to his own guys. Instead he'll watch somebody give Kazmir big bucks during free agency and search for the next damaged pitcher he can snag at a discount. Without a pennant in sight, he'll certainly shop the 31-year-old this summer.
By staying healthy until July, Kazmir will further distance himself from the injury-prone label and attract several suitors as a high-quality southpaw.
5. Ben Zobrist, IF/OF, Oakland Athletics
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After selling their top pieces, the Athletics swerved and acquired Ben Zobrist from the Tampa Bay Rays. Months later, they'll likely regift the all-purpose position player to a playoff hopeful.
Before a knee injury sent him to the disabled list, Zobrist hit an underwhelming .240/.304/.400. The usually decorated infielder was charged with minus-four defensive runs saved, giving the sabermetric favorite a minus-0.7 WAR through 14 games.
Oakland won't be in any rush to trade the 33-year-old, whom it likely never had any intentions of re-upping this offseason. Zobrist will need to prove healthy, and a minus-12 run differential suggests the club isn't as bad as its 14-29 record suggests.
Barring another 20-game winning streak to feature in a Moneyball sequel, the Athletics will likely be far enough back from the running in July to mortgage him off to someone needing, well, any position short of catcher.
4. Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
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Unlike everyone else on this list, Ian Desmond plays for a contender. Yet his slumping bat and sloppy fielding could make the Washington Nationals shortstop expendable as his contract year comes closer to its conclusion.
A quarter through the season, he is hitting .246/.299/.392 with a 25.4 strikeout percentage. Currently tallying four homers and one steal, his streak of three consecutive 20-20 campaigns is in great jeopardy.
Desmond's bat has allowed Washington to tolerate his glove, but the 29-year-old has already committed 11 errors. Besides, the team appeared ready to move on when acquiring Trea Turner as a player to be named later from the San Diego Padres during the offseason. Due to a rule against trading recent draft picks, the 2014 first-rounder remains in San Diego's farm system until June 13, where he sports a .336/.418/.524 slash line.
For the Nationals to move Desmond at the deadline during a title push, they'll need Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth to return healthy and productive. Either the shortstop snaps out of his funk and cements himself as an important piece to the puzzle, or he continues to slump, hindering the purpose of selling with his stock so low.
3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
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This person currently playing shortstop for Colorado isn't Troy Tulowitzki. When the baseball gods grace him with health, he's the best shortstop in the land and one of the game's most feared sluggers. This season, however, he's seemingly healthy yet terrible.
Tulowitzki, who holds a career 9.9 walk percentage, has drawn a measly four walks this season. He's instead striking out, generating a 21.2 percentage that is well above his career 16.0 percent clip. Last year, he exited May with a .352 average, 14 homers and the inside track on winning MVP honors. He now sports a .293 on-base percentage and two long balls.
This puts the Rockies in the same unenviable situation they face with Gonzalez. Although they're in last place because of their struggles, trading for cents on the dollar won't salvage their franchise. Despite early whispers of the star forcing the issue, he won't demand a trade just yet.
Tulowitzki needs to stay on the field and heat up, at which point the hot stove will follow.
2. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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Johnny Cueto is getting paid this offseason. Silencing regression worries, the 29-year-old righty owns a 3.02 ERA through nine starts. Although his ERA has risen, his 0.96 WHIP and 3.32 fielding independent pitching (FIP) are virtually identical to last year's marks.
Since the ace shut down extension talks once the season began, the Cincinnati Reds must risk losing him for nothing or pushing him into the arms of another team. Although the team is far from out of it at 18-24, contention is a stretch for a poor Reds rotation missing Homer Bailey.
Even with hopes of retaining him, the Boston Red Sox shopped Jon Lester for Yoenis Cespedes last year. Oakland traded top prospect Addison Russell for Jeff Samardzija, who it knew was no more than a short-term rental. Re-signing fears aside, someone will pay a king's ransom for two or three months of Cueto, especially if it can lead to October baseball.
1. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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When it comes to dealing Cole Hamels, the Phillies don't appear to be in any rush. While a package of prospects would help the club's rebuilding plan more than a 31-year-old ace, Philly only act if a significant offer comes their way.
The lefty has three pricey years on his contract, as he's set to earn $23.5 million each season through 2018. Looking at the franchise's trajectory, none of those are likely to be winning campaigns.
After the Phillies waited too long on Cliff Lee, Hamels is their last substantial asset. Through 66.1 innings, he sports a 2.98 ERA and 67 strikeouts. He's also on track to make at least 30 starts for the eighth consecutive season.
Come July, Philly should mention Hamels' 3.09 postseason ERA during trade talks. Last year, Oakland and the Detroit Tigers went all in for a chance at the title. This season, the Los Angeles Dodgers or Red Sox could envision him completing the puzzle.
Note: Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs. Contract information via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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