Belmont Stakes 2015: Updated Odds and Horses to Avoid for Bettors
Two weeks out from the 2015 Belmont Stakes, the field for the final leg of the Triple Crown is still taking shape. There shouldn't be as much debate as there was at the Preakness, as trainers won't need to worry about resting their thoroughbreds for another imminent race, but the 1 ½-mile Belmont certainly isn't for everyone.
American Pharoah should remain the favorite up until race day, if only because bettors aren't likely to let Vegas lengthen the Triple Crown hopeful's odds too much. Bob Baffert's horse won't have an easy time breaking the 37-year Triple Crown drought on June 6, which might lead some bettors to place their wagers on Pharoah's top challengers.
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However, only a few of those longer odds offer truly intriguing upside. Taking a look at the latest odds via Odds Shark, let's highlight some of the horses to avoid at this point.
| American Pharoah | 1-1 |
| Frosted | 5-1 |
| Materiality | 15-2 |
| Mubtaahij | 14-1 |
| Carpe Diem | 16-1 |
| Madefromlucky | 22-1 |
| Keen Ice | 25-1 |
| Divining Rod | 25-1 |
| Tale of Verve | 28-1 |
| War Story | 33-1 |
| Conquest Curlinate | 33-1 |
| Frammento | 50-1 |
Mubtaahij
The Belmont's international entry is actually not a bad bounce-back bet even after his eighth-place showing at the Kentucky Derby. Mubtaahij was South African trainer Michael de Kok's first-ever entry into the Run for the Roses, and having his horse train on American soil the past five weeks should have him better-prepared for the Belmont.
However, it's mildly surprising to see Mubtaahij ahead of horses like Carpe Diem, who has a more proven American racing track record. Mubtaahij is not the prototypical international horse in that he races well on dirt as well as grass. But there is one disadvantage stemming from the horse's background that could make things difficult on him:
Lasix is a type of anti-bleeding medication that American horses use widely, as Mubtaahij was the only Derby entry not to use it and the first in more than a decade to eschew Lasix. Horses can suffer from exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage, which essentially means that race horses often bleed. However, U.S. horses differ from international horses in their use of Lasix, which is administered on race day.
There is controversy about Lasix being a performance-enhancer, especially considering that bleeding only affects a small minority of race horses. Regardless, Mubtaahij likely has a steeper hill to climb than the rest of the competition, so despite his impressive international results, it's hard to justify betting on a horse who simply isn't racing on the same field.
Tale of Verve
The Preakness runner-up was a long shot at Pimlico, and Vegas doesn't appear convinced that Dallas Stewart's horse is capable of pulling off another stunner. Still, for a horse with a recent impressive finish, some bettors might go fishing for a recognizable name with long odds.
Nevertheless, it speaks volumes that Stewart won't even let Tale of Verve retain the jockey who led him to that second-place showing. Joel Rosario is back on Frosted, the second-favorite at the Belmont, leaving Gary Stevens to ride Tale of Verve. The Hall of Famer Stevens is obviously no downgrade, but if Stewart saw Tale of Verve as a more legitimate threat than Frosted, it's hard to believe he would have switched jockeys.
In reality, Stewart didn't have much reason to keep Rosario on Tale of Verve. The Preakness was his first graded stakes start, and there's nothing in his maiden special-weight race-track record that suggests Pimlico was indicative of his real ability:
| 4/23/15 | Keeneland | 1 |
| 3/5/15 | Fair Grounds | 2 |
| 1/22/15 | Fair Grounds | 4 |
| 1/1/15 | Fair Grounds | 7 |
| 11/29/14 | Churchill Downs | 3 |
| 10/18/14 | Keeneland | 3 |
He has raced multiple times on three weeks' rest, which is a good sign for the Pimlico-to-Belmont transition. Nevertheless, the Belmont field should be deeper and filled with horses on five weeks' rest, which should make Stewart's horse a long shot to place in the top three.
American Pharoah
Pharoah is the best three-year-old in the world, and any impartial racing fan will be rooting for him to make history at Belmont. And yet, any rational analysis of these odds would suggest that Baffert's horse doesn't make sense at even-money value.
Even though he has yet to lose in six graded stakes races, he has also never raced three times without less than seven weeks of cumulative rest. This five-week stretch is a schedule no horse goes through in his normal race schedule, which is part of what makes the Triple Crown such a daunting task. Indeed, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has already illustrated how the Belmont betting odds for previous Derby and Preakness winners have been fallacious:
If there is justification for his odds, it's that Pharoah has shown the grittiness to win on a pair of slow tracks at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, where he slogged through a torrid downpour. Pharoah has yet to blow anyone away with his raw times, but if Belmont provides a fast track, perhaps he'll finally get to showcase the speed that made him the Derby favorite as far back as last summer.
But that's a risk you shouldn't take with your money. Pharoah is the only horse who will end up racing all three legs of the Triple Crown, which puts the field's best horse at the biggest disadvantage on race day.
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