What Rafael Nadal's Loss to Novak Djokovic Means for Wimbledon 2015
Rafael Nadal's decade-long run of terror at Roland Garros is over. Novak Djokovic unseated the defending champion in Wednesday's quarterfinals matchup, busting the French Open wide open and perhaps setting up Djokovic's first major win on clay.
Djokovic beat Nadal 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 and ended Rafa's hopes of locking down a 10th championship.
Roland Garros provided comments from Nadal following the match:
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The loss is Nadal's second overall at Roland Garros and his first since Robin Soderling took him down in 2009. Long viewed as the highlight of his career, Soderling can finally take the deep breath he's long desired regarding that match.
“It’s good to be the only one, but everybody is asking me only about this match," Soderling recently told Simon Briggs of the Telegraph. "I am really proud of many other things in my career: being in the top five, reaching the final of a Grand Slam twice. I’m actually even more proud of making it to the French Open final in 2010 than the previous year, because defending those points was a big challenge."
As for Nadal, this is merely the latest setback in what might be the beginning of the end for his reign among the sport's greats.
The entirety of 2015 has been a mess for Nadal. He's taken just one event on the calendar year—the relatively anonymous Argentina Open—and lower-ranked players have regularly dispatched him. Only twice all season has he dropped a match against a higher-seeded opponent, and he's made just two finals overall.
The struggles continued well into the clay-court season, long Nadal's bread and butter, even when he's not on his game elsewhere. Andy Murray captured his first win on clay against Nadal at the Madrid Open. Stan Wawrinka took care of him in straight sets at the Italian. Djokovic smoked him at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters.
The writing was on the wall. Nadal wasn't as good. Everyone saw it—even Nadal was left giving platitudes to reporters about life being good, a telltale sign an athlete is struggling to cure what ills him. That said, no one—not even the competitors in Roland Garros—could bring themselves to say anyone else was the favorite.
“Regardless of what anyone says to me he's the favorite,” Roger Federer said before the tournament, per Kamakshi Tandon of Tennis.com. “The guy’s only lost once in 10 years.”
What most failed to realize is that this isn't the same Nadal. Even at the nadir of his career, where most wondered aloud if injuries would shorten his prime, Nadal was able to come through and dominate the clay season.
Sixty percent of Rafael Nadal was better than 100 percent of any other player save for Soderling that one fateful day in 2009. The dude was a human cheat code. He was the Brock Lesnar of tennis, a one-man wrecking crew who would turn Roland Garros into Slice Shot City.
By all accounts, Nadal is healthy right now. He's been a regular on tour all year; he's played more tournaments than Djokovic and Federer in 2015. The reality, at least for right now, is that Nadal isn't among the handful of best players in the world at this point.
What does this mean heading into the grass-court season? Nothing particularly. Nadal has long been at his weakest on grass. The surface is by far the toughest on his knees, and he's generally had his most grueling matches even when he does come away victorious.
Recent years have also seen Nadal become a near-lock for an early exit at the All England Club. Since losing to Djokovic at the 2011 final, Nadal has not lasted more than four matches in London. He was eliminated in the second round in 2012 and the first in 2013. Before pushing his way to the fourth round last year, Nadal had lost his last three matches on grass.
Most seasons, Nadal's Wimbledon struggles lead to analysis of the reasons for his grass-court struggles, as he racks up titles on other surfaces. In 2015, it's par for the course. We've seen a healthy Nadal drop four spots in the world rankings. We've seen him lose on the course he's owned for nine championships in 10 years.
If he can't take down the field at Roland Garros, there's no reason to consider him even a fringe contender at Wimbledon. After months of concerns, we're now firmly at a crossroads in Nadal's career.
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