Preakness 2015: Projected Prize Money Earnings, Order of Finish and More
Just a few hours separate us from the 2015 Preakness Stakes, which will either be Bob Baffert's second crowning achievement of the month or the latest in a decades-long series of setbacks for horse racing.
As you may have heard a time or 212, there has not been a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. Since then, there has been a never-ending series of close calls, most recently by California Chrome a year ago. The horse racing business largely does just fine without a horse pulling off all three races. One could argue the chase is actually better for the sport—it's far better off when the suspension of disbelief is prolonged.
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Case in point: Last year, NBC reported 21.3 million viewers for the Belmont Stakes. A year earlier, it had less than a third of that total.
The difference? In 2014, California Chrome was going for history. In 2013, the hope of a Triple Crown had already been dashed.
Will Derby winner American Pharoah complete the second leg or become the latest to come up short? Here's a look at a preview of how I'm projecting the field to finish later Saturday afternoon.
Preakness Stakes Posts/Odds
| 1 | American Pharoah | 10-13 | Bob Baffert | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Dortmund | 15-4 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 3 | Mr. Z | 25-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani |
| 4 | Danzig Moon | 14-1 | Mark Casse | Julien Leparoux |
| 5 | Tale of Verve | 50-1 | Dallas Stewart | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Bodhisattva | 50-1 | Jose Corrales | Trevor McCarthy |
| 7 | Divining Rod | 20-1 | Arnaud Delacour | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Firing Line | 17-4 | Simon Callaghan | Gary Stevens |
Payout
| First | $900,000 (60%) |
| Second | $300,000 (20%) |
| Third | $165,000 (11%) |
| Fourth | $90,000 (6%) |
| Fifth | $45,000 (3%) |
Podium Preview
1. American Pharoah
On paper, this looks relatively self-explanatory. Pharoah just beat Dortmund and Firing Line two weeks ago by kicking it into a gear neither of his top competitors had. Dortmund was downright gassed over the final few lengths of the Derby. Firing Line doesn't appear to have the top-end speed necessary to pull off the upset, especially on two weeks' rest.
The only trepidation in selecting Pharoah comes from his post on the inside gate. It was the absolute worst possible draw given the size of the field. After Pharoah struggled a bit coming from the outside at Churchill Downs, it appears the draws plan on doing him no favors on this Triple Crown quest. If he gets stuck to the rail early and squeezed back, it's possible Pharoah won't have time to recover.
"I never like the 1 hole," Baffert said, per Dan Wolken of USA Today. "That's the first time I've ever drawn the rail here. I've been so lucky. You don't like to see it, but if he's the best horse we'll find out."
Pharoah overcame a disappointing draw to overtake the field at Churchill Downs. If he gets off to a good start, there's no reason to think we won't be headed to Elmont on the cusp of history.
2. Dortmund
Ironically, the horse with the best chance of pinching Pharoah early also comes from Baffert's stable. Dortmund ran an excellent Derby for the first three-quarters of the race, getting out of the gate hot and leading the pack before faltering down the stretch.
That hot start is what makes him intriguing Saturday. If Dortmund is able to beat Pharoah out of the box, as he did at the Derby, then it's possible the shuffling keeps him ahead all the way to the end.
"I mean, Dortmund came in undefeated, and he still ran a very gallant race to run third," Baffert said, per Childs Walker of the Baltimore Sun. "I really thought, when they turned down the backside, he would win it, the way he was just cruising along like he did in California. But he got a little tired. Since then, he's really trained well. I expect another big effort out of him."
Remember: Dortmund won his first six races before losing at the Derby. This horse is far from a slouch.
3. Firing Line
Drawing the No. 8 post was a godsend. Not only will the two Baffert-trained colts be infighting from the opening gate, but Gary Stevens should have plenty of room to ride in the early going. Drawing the outside post is not the death sentence at Pimlico that it is in the Kentucky Derby. Whereas Pharoah had to navigate a massive field, Firing Line's only got seven horses inside.
"It's a huge advantage," Stevens said, per Wolken. "Having American Pharoah on the outside of me in the Derby, (jockey) Victor (Espinoza) had options and he took advantage of them. Hopefully I'll be able to take the same kind of advantage in this race. I'm going to sleep a lot easier tonight than had I drawn on the inside."
Stevens will need to take advantage of his solid draw early to come away with the upset. If Firing Line is leading the pack at the midpoint, don't be surprised if he comes away with a win on the shorter track. As it stands, I'm sticking with one of the two inside-post horses giving Baffert his second win of the Triple Crown season.
We'll just have to see if it's Dortmund or Pharaoh who comes out on top.
The Rest
| 4 | Danzig Moon |
| 5 | Bodhisattva |
| 6 | Divining Rod |
| 7 | Tale of Verve |
| 8 | Mr. Z |
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
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