Preakness 2015: Post Positions, Latest Vegas Odds and Picks After Post Draw

The post positions are set, the morning-line odds are in and the only question that matters is this: Can American Pharoah win the Preakness and go one step closer to ending horse racing's Triple Crown drought? 

Before we attempt to answer that, let's take a look at Wednesday's announcement of the post positions. 

Post Positions and Odds

Post Position	Horse	Odds	Trainer	Jockey
1	American Pharoah	4-5	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza
2	Dortmund	7-2	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
3	Mr. Z	20-1	D. Wayne Lukas	Corey Nakatani
4	Danzig Moon	15-1	Mark Casse	Julien Leparoux
5	Tale of Verve	30-1	Dallas Stewart	Joel Rosario
6	Bodhisattva	20-1	Jose Corrales	Trevor McCarthy
7	Divining Rod	12-1	Arnaud Delacour	Javier Castellano
8	Firing Line	4-1	Simon Callaghan	Gary Stevens

Analysis

No matter what the draw ended up being, American Pharoah was always going to be the favorite in this race.

While the horse benefited from a strong starting position at the Kentucky Derby and a slow pace throughout, the Bob Baffert-trained horse also got out of the gate quickly and had more legs than Firing Line and Dortmund down the stretch, earning an impressive victory against a tough field.  

The post position on the inside would be far more devastating in the Derby, with a huge field converging on the rail. In a Preakness with only eight horses running, however, it shouldn't be nearly as detrimental.

Granted, there will be an onus on Pharoah to get out quickly and settle in behind whichever horse becomes the pacesetter, but that would be the case no matter where Pharoah ended up when the post positions were announced. 

"I was surprised I went one-two—I hate drawing my horses next to one another—though they'll be easy to watch now," Baffert said in the post-draw coverage on DRF Live, in response to American Pharoah's and Dortmund's adjacent posts on the inside. "With eight horses, it's a different vibe here. They still have to break well, though you don't like to be on the inside. You just have to live with it." 

While repeating as a winner won't be easy for Pharoah, a smaller and weaker field of contenders facing the horse is a major advantage. What remains to be seen is whether the smaller track also favors the horse or hinders it. 

Based on the Derby run, Pharoah showed excellent late speed, something that won't be as important in the Preakness. In the Preakness, getting out to a strong start and staying near the lead will be key. As long as Pharoah doesn't really lag out of the gate and get caught well behind the leaders, he should be in the running. 

Of course, Firing Line and Dortmund remain his primary competition, especially since trainer Todd Pletcher decided against running any of his top three options, Carpe Diem, Materiality and Competitive Edge. Firing Line showed he could run with American Pharoah for much of the Derby, though he didn't have the kick at the end, while Dortmund was in the mix as well and could be dangerous if he is able to shoot ahead of the field early and set another slow pace. 

And, yes, a surprise winner could emerge. Danzig Moon ran well at the Derby, finishing fifth, so he could play a part in this race. Or American Pharoah could have a bad day and fall out of contention. Or a number of factors—weather, the strategy of other jockeys in the race, a slow start, etc.—could conspire against Pharoah. 

When a Triple Crown is on the line, anything can happen. But for now, it remains incredibly likely that American Pharoah will head to the Belmont Stakes needing just one more win to end horse racing's Triple Crown drought.