Preakness Picks 2015: Early Payout Projections for Pimlico Field
2015 Preakness Stakes contenders are dropping from the field like flies, but it's hardly changed things at the top.
American Pharoah is still the odds-on favorite with 5-6 odds to win the Triple Crown's second leg, according to Odds Shark. The two horses he had to overcome two weeks ago at the Kentucky Derby—Dortmund and Firing Line—aren't going anywhere, either.
With that said, trainer Todd Pletcher's withdrawal of his four horses—Materiality, Carpe Diem, Competitive Edge and Stanford—as reported by Ron Mitchell of Blood-Horse, has left a number of noticeable absences.
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We're guaranteed a field of no more than eight for the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans, but only three will earn a win-place-show finish. Let's predict which horses will take the cake at Pimlico Race Course.
2015 Preakness Purse Payouts
| First | $900,000 (60%) |
| Second | $300,000 (20%) |
| Third | $165,000 (11%) |
| Fourth | $90,000 (6%) |
| Fifth | $45,000 (3%) |
Preakness purse information courtesy of TheTripleCrown.com.
Projections
1. American Pharoah
The looming Belmont Stakes may be another story, but the Preakness has set up just perfectly for American Pharoah.
Coming off a resilient win at the Kentucky Derby, the thoroughbred's biggest competition heading into Pimlico are horses he just bested at Churchill Downs. While Dortmund and Firing Line ran brilliantly in that race, neither was much of a match for American Pharoah's breakaway speed down the outside.
Just a two-week break between events is typically a cause for concern, but there are no such signs for the Triple Crown hopeful. As the Courier-Journal's Kentucky Derby Twitter noted, he's running just fine in preparations for Saturday:
It's either going to take a sleeper horse coming out of the blue or something special from Dortmund or Firing Line to usurp American Pharoah and end the Triple Crown aspirations. And considering how convincingly he won two weeks ago, neither seems likely to occur.
2. Dortmund
If American Pharoah performs as expected and leaves the field in his tracks once again, the most exciting race at the Preakness just might come down to second place between Dortmund and Firing Line.
Assuming that's how Saturday shakes out, it will be far from an unfamiliar feeling for either of the two horses who have finished right next to each other in three races since December 2014.
Dortmund got the best of Firing Line in the first two, resiliently galloping into the lead and holding off furious charges from his opponent. But Firing Line secured revenge on the biggest stage in horse racing after he overtook Dortmund down the stretch at the Kentucky Derby and took second place.
For most of that race, however, Dortmund proclaimed his superiority by leading the field. And a step down in distance at the 1 3/16-mile Pimlico track should help to prevent Dortmund from fading down the stretch.
The Derby marked the lone exception to Dortmund's previously undefeated record, and his class will be proved again after the worst result of his racing career.
3. Firing Line
Even in the midst of a brutal one-length defeat to American Pharoah at the Kentucky Derby, Firing Line's camp have found plenty of reasons for optimism heading into the Preakness.
Of course, the first positive was getting the monkey off the back and beating Dortmund at Churchill Downs—which happened in such convincing fashion that he remained hot on American Pharoah's tail until the end. But what truly has Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens and Co. flying high is the fact that he looks ready for more stakes.
According to Steve Haskin of Blood-Horse, Stevens said: "I couldn't believe his energy level pulling up after the Derby. He's the first horse I've ever ridden in the Derby who was still a fresh horse after the race. I think the Derby actually did him even more good."
Watching Firing Line's final couple of furlongs at the Derby, one can tell he seemingly put every ounce of effort and energy into winning. If he runs like that Saturday at the Preakness, it will be a tall task to finish in front of him.
But with that said, pulling two performances of that fashion out of the hat in the span of 14 days is just too much to ask—especially when going up against horses such as Dortmund and American Pharoah.
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